NBA Layoff Will Help These 5 Teams Most in Orlando
Nothing about the four-month wait for the NBA's return was fun.
But while it's thankfully behind us, its impact could resonate for the rest of the 2019-20 season.
This campaign is as unique as any in the history of the sport, and it's impossible to know for sure the impact of such a lengthy break thrown into the middle of the marathon. Saying that, there are breadcrumbs we can follow to identify which teams stand to benefit most from the time off.
From injury recoveries to recharged batteries, we'll examine the five clubs that should have gained the most from the past four months.
Boston Celtics
1 of 5
The Celtics don't have the deepest bench or the strongest rotation at center, so they need to squeeze everything they can from their key contributors (the five starters and Marcus Smart).
That's why this four-month break is good for the collective, even if it disrupted a nuclear run from Jayson Tatum (29.5 points on 48.3/46.6/74.7 shooting over his final 15 outings). The more important development was giving Kemba Walker time to rest his left knee.
He missed six of the team's 10 games after the All-Star break with knee soreness and shot an abysmal 30.5 percent in the four he played. He's still not back to where he needs to be (he was held out of Friday's scrimmage), but if he can get fully stretched out before the postseason, that could be the key in Boston becoming a full-fledged contender, as NBC Sports Boston's A. Sherrod Blakely observed:
"While the Celtics have shown no signs of grave concern about Walker's health, it is without question the biggest uncertainty with this team right now. Walker is more than just a key player; he's a difference-maker whose status could very well mean the difference between a deep playoff run or a quick, disappointing end to the season."
Despite having multiple stars on the roster, the Celtics still manage to make their whole better than the sum of their parts. They're the East's only team with top-five efficiency ranks on offense and defense, which highlights how they can climb. But they need Walker to help lead the charge.
As dominant as Tatum looked, he's still just a 22-year-old who averaged 15.2 points in last year's playoffs. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward can help lead the offense in spurts, too, but they don't consistently wow with volume. Everything works in tandem, and Walker's shooting and shot-creation are key parts of the recipe.
If he winds up healthy after all this, the restart will be worth the wait for the Shamrocks.
Houston Rockets
2 of 5
Even though this is James Harden and Russell Westbrook's first season together in Space City, it already has a last-stand kind of vibe.
The two former MVPs are both on the wrong side of 30, as are key running mates PJ Tucker and Eric Gordon. Head coach Mike D'Antoni is in the final season of his contract, and you wonder if Houston's all-in move to small-ball was an attempt to set the skipper up for one last crack at finding the championship formula.
That's where this hiatus can help. The Rockets looked wobbly before it started—losing four straight in March, including games against the Knicks, Hornets and Magic—and you wondered if they were gassed. Harden was shouldering the 10th-highest usage rate in NBA history, and Westbrook ranked 34th on that list. Tucker faced the nightly wear and tear of battling 7-footers as a 6'5" starting center.
Houston didn't merely rest up during the break, though. Harden shifted his workouts into overdrive, showing off a slimmer physique that could increase his endurance for the second season. Westbrook, who's seemingly spent his entire life in game shape, blitzed through workout drills that just look exhausting. Clearly, the Rockets are planning for something major.
"Now, Houston becomes even scarier," Dwyane Wade told The Athletic's Kelly Iko. "With both of these guys, they can run you out the gym."
The Rockets might be top-heavy, but their one-two punch has as much knockout power as any. If their stars are turbocharged for this final sprint, and their supporting cast follows their lead—Houston gets really interesting if Gordon found his legs these last four months—the Rockets could be a nightmare matchup for anyone.
Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 5
LeBron James and Anthony Davis aren't really basketball cyborgs, they just play the part on TV. But the Hollywood stars need breathers like everyone else, and they're hitting Orlando with fully recharged batteries.
That's a terrifying thought for the 21 other bubble occupants.
The last time the Lakers had a mini reset, they stormed out of the All-Star break with a 7-2 record that featured takedowns of the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers. James averaged an absurd 30.0 points (on 55.1 percent shooting!), 9.4 assists and 8.2 rebounds over that stretch, while Davis supplied 26.9 points, 10.2 boards and 2.8 blocks.
Letting them refill their stamina for a championship push could be a real-life cheat code.
"I think our [championship] chances are higher because we're all rested," Davis said, per Lakers.com's Mike Trudell. "We're all ready to go. If anything, our chances got higher, and it's going to be about who wants it more. Everybody had a decompression of the season ... it's about which team wants it more and which team can stay healthy."
The extra time away could also have given coach Frank Vogel a chance to conjure up ways of getting Kyle Kuzma going.
For all that has gone right in Lakers Land this season, the third-year forward has turned in his least productive campaign to date. He isn't the cleanest fit with James and Davis as a ball-dominant scorer, but Kuzma's offensive versatility could perhaps decrease the collapses that occur when James takes a seat (11.7 points worse per 100 possessions without him).
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Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 5
After spending the season's first five months searching for answers they never found, the Sixers needed to clear their headspace. They also needed time for Joel Embiid (shoulder) and Ben Simmons (back) to get their nagging injuries under control, and for coach Brett Brown to scheme up ways to put this talented but imperfect roster together.
A four-month rest could be just what this group needed to unlock its towering potential.
Brown has shuffled his hand since the hiatus, with Simmons sliding to the power forward spot, Shake Milton joining the starting lineup and Al Horford heading back to the bench. If Milton proves his late-season surge was more than a mirage (19.4 points on 58.8/60.5/72.2 shooting), he could be the missing ingredient who corrects Philly's imbalance (18th on offense, sixth on defense).
Milton has splashed 44.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, which highlights the havoc he can cause playing off Embiid's post-ups. The big fella is working on reading double-teams, and Milton's shot is one way to weaponize that work. Milton's handles and pull-up shooting could also turn Simmons into a fascinating (and devastating) screener, since he can explode to the rim or distribute on the short roll.
"I love playing in that pick-and-roll situation, or pick-and-pop, whatever it is," Simmons told The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. "It just gives us so many different options. It's tough to guard."
Philly has even more layers it can unlock. Simmons might finally be willing to let it fly (maybe for real this time). Deadline acquisitions Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks might find their way to more comfortable roles. Having Horford on the second unit could give the Sixers an advantage at center throughout the game.
All of this needs to come together, and the fact that it hasn't thus far could mean it never does. But the Sixers have as much talent as anyone, and this break might've helped all the puzzle pieces fall into place.
Portland Trail Blazers
5 of 5
Of all the teams to enter the bubble on the outside of the playoff picture, no one was more shocked with their position than Portland. This was a 53-win, Western Conference finalist just last season, and it was now getting even more from Damian Lillard (deserving of MVP votes) and CJ McCollum.
But the injury bug battered the Blazers, and their defense wilted (27th in efficiency, down from 16th last season). It's hard to say what will happen on the defensive front—the offseason departures of Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu loom large there—but at least the health department is finally providing good news. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins filled starting frontcourt spots during Thursday's scrimmage with the Indiana Pacers.
Nurkic, who hadn't played all season after a March 2019 leg fracture, was back to his bruising self already. He needed just 20 minutes to punish the Pacers with 14 points, eight boards and a block. Collins, who played three games before having surgery on his shoulder, added another six points, four boards and a block in 19 minutes of work.
"I think everybody who was anxious to see Zach and Nurk were probably pleased to see how they played," Blazers coach Terry Stotts said, per The Athletic's Jason Quick.
With Nurkic and Collins back in action, the Blazers could be a problem. Lillard has been on a short list of this season's most productive players—third player ever to average 28 points, seven assists and three triples—and the supporting cast boasts ignitable scorers at every spot. If the defense can simply rise to mediocrity, this club could hang with anyone.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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