Ranking the 7 Most Surprising Super Bowl Teams of the 2000s

Twenty Super Bowls have taken place this century, and most of the teams from those games were widely expected to reach that pinnacle.

Altogether, 78 percent of this century's Super Bowl finalists had first-round byes, while 90 percent were division winners during the regular season. 

But there have been some major surprises—some of whom were lower seeds that overachieved in the playoffs, others of whom put together dazzling seasons out of nowhere. 

These seven Super Bowl teams overcame expectations more than any of the others since 2000.

Honorable Mentions

JEFF HAYNES/Getty Images

2000 New York Giants: The G-Men were coming off a 7-9 season. They had just two Pro Bowlers and a so-so offense led by the uninspiring Kerry Collins. They earned the top seed in the NFC despite inferior scoring margins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles, and they were lucky to avoid the juggernaut St. Louis Rams in the playoffs. They were destroyed by the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV.

2003 Carolina Panthers: The '03 Panthers were one of six NFC teams to win between 10 and 12 games, but the Rams, Eagles and Green Bay Packers were considered superior throughout the year. Carolina won a bad division with Jake Delhomme at quarterback but then got hot in January and fell just short of upsetting the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

2012 Baltimore Ravens: While the Ravens are almost always competitive, it was shocking to see them get to the Super Bowl in a season in which the Patriots and Denver Broncos were utterly dominant in the AFC. Those two teams went a combined 25-7 and outscored their opponents by a combined 418 points during the regular season, but Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco caught fire as a 10-win Ravens team stunned both the Broncos and the Pats in the postseason en route to a Super Bowl XLVII victory.

7. 2010 Green Bay Packers

TIMOTHY A. CLARY/Getty Images

The 2010 Green Bay Packers are the only team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl as a No. 6 seed with 10 or fewer wins.

That gets them on this list despite the fact that team—which beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV—featured the highest-rated passer in league history (Aaron Rodgers) as well as five Pro Bowlers. 

In order to reach that affair, a Packers team that went just 3-3 to close out the regular season had to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears in three consecutive road playoff games. That's something only four teams in NFL history have done, and Green Bay accomplished it despite injuries to key veterans Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley and Mark Tauscher.

Even with Rodgers and plenty of talent surrounding him, the odds were stacked against the Packers entering that postseason.

6. 2019 San Francisco 49ers

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

Thirty-nine of the 40 Super Bowl teams this century won at least five games in the season that preceded their Super Bowl campaign. The only exception was a 2019 San Francisco 49ers squad that won just four games in 2018.

So even though the 49ers emerged relatively early as a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, they have to make this list. In the middle of September, 14 teams—including the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans—had better Super Bowl odds than San Francisco.

But with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo back from a major knee injury and Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa putting a star-studded defensive front over the top, an exciting young regime experienced sudden, extreme success in the Bay Area. Of course, it also helped that veteran cornerback Richard Sherman looked rejuvenated in the secondary, while a slew of running backs and a deep receiving corps broke out as part of a balanced offensive attack.

The 49ers fell short of capturing the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2019, but overcoming the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Packers and Seattle Seahawks was a hell of a feat for a squad that was pretty bad one year prior.

5. 2008 Arizona Cardinals

Focus On Sport/Getty Images

Prior to the 2008 season, the Arizona Cardinals had posted a winning record just once dating back to 1985. That year, they failed to win double-digit games for the 32nd consecutive campaign. But they still surpassed the expectations of most analysts by winning the terrible NFC West with a 9-7 record, sneaking into the playoffs despite possessing the fifth-worst scoring defense in the NFL.

Then, the offense picked it up in the postseason while the rest of the NFC collapsed, paving the way for the conference's only seven-loss playoff team to reach Super Bowl XLIII, where it lost a close, exciting contest with the Steelers.

The Cards entered this season still wondering if Matt Leinart could be the answer at quarterback, with the fanbase fully expecting another letdown from a perennial underachiever. That didn't happen, and veteran quarterback Kurt Warner revived his career with a Pro Bowl campaign en route to the Super Bowl, which had to be a huge surprise considering the franchise's sorry history.

4. 2011 New York Giants

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

On the surface, this Super Bowl run for the New York Giants might be considered more surprising than the team's championship run in 2007.

The 2011 Giants are the only seven-loss Super Bowl winner in NFL history, and in order to even get to that game they had to slay the 15-1 Packers and the 13-3 49ers in road playoff games. It was practically an unprecedented run through a stacked playoff field that wouldn't have even had a chance to happen if not for the fact that the rest of the NFC East was a mess.

That regular season, the Giants allowed more points than they scored. They were one of the worst defensive teams in football, and they ranked outside the top 10 in terms of defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) at Football Outsiders, but they squeezed into the playoffs and it was all magic after that.

The only reason this team ranks behind the team that won it all four years earlier? The '07 squad taught us to expect magic from Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning.

3. 2007 New York Giants

GABRIEL BOUYS/Getty Images

Unlike the magical 2011 G-Men, the magical 2007 version didn't even win the NFC East. And in this case, the run came out of nowhere. 

Fourth-year quarterback Eli Manning had yet to come close to expectations, head coach Tom Coughlin appeared to be on the hot seat at the conclusion of the previous season, and they didn't look like a Super Bowl-caliber team when they went 10-6 and ranked in the middle of the pack offensively, defensively and in terms of DVOA. 

Still, as a No. 5 seed, they won three consecutive road playoff games before spoiling the New England Patriots' perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.

Seven teams in the NFC had stronger scoring margins than that 10-win Giants squad, which went just 4-4 during the second half of the regular season.

Altogether, it was a miraculous championship run.

2. 2017 Philadelphia Eagles

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The 2000 Ravens, 2001 Patriots, 2003 Panthers, 2012 49ers and 2017 Eagles are the only teams this century that have made the Super Bowl despite replacing their starting quarterback during the season. But Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme and Colin Kaepernick took over and played so well that they remained starters regardless of the health of those they replaced in Baltimore, New England, Carolina and San Francisco, respectively. 

Philadelphia's case is unique. The Eagles were the NFC's top seed, and quarterback Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate when he suffered a season-ending knee injury, and said injury occurred so late in the year that many assumed the snakebitten Eagles were doomed. 

Instead, backup Nick Foles improbably helped the Eagles lock up that No. 1 seed in the conference with back-to-back December victories before leading them all the way to victory over New England in Super Bowl LII. Philly was an underdog in all three of its playoff wins, but Foles posted a 115.7 playoff passer rating before capturing Super Bowl MVP. 

They were so down, so out. It's still hard to believe they pulled it off.

1. 2001 New England Patriots

JEFF HAYNES/Getty Images

The 2001 New England Patriots were an afterthought even before losing Drew Bledsoe to a serious injury in September. Only five teams entered that year with lower Super Bowl odds, and few knew who Tom Brady was when he took over under center for an 0-2 team.

The rest, of course, is history.

Despite being underdogs of seven-plus points in five of Brady's first eight starts, he and Bill Belichick teamed up to win 11 of the next 14 games as New England captured the AFC East title. It then upset the 13-3 Steelers and the 14-2 Rams in one of the most improbable and unexpected championship runs in the history of professional sports.

The Patriots haven't sneaked up on anybody since because they've been the team to beat for nearly two decades. But in New England, it all started with an epic surprise.