MLB Free Agency 2020: Predictions for Yankees' James Paxton, Top Pitchers

This past offseason did not start auspiciously for New York Yankees left-hander James Paxton.

The 31-year-old first began experiencing back discomfort in September, though it seemed to subside as Paxton excelled in the postseason. Thus, when the pain resurfaced this past winter, the hope was Paxton would be able to work through it again.

Unfortunately for Paxton and the Yankees, that was not the case. Paxton underwent surgery in February and was slated to miss the first two or three months of the season.

But Paxton will in fact be ready for Opening Day. The coronavirus pandemic had already set back baseball a couple months, and the ensuing labor dispute between MLB and the MLBPA resulted in Opening Day being scheduled for later in July.

The Yankees are already coming into the season with high expectations. But Paxton, in a walk year, is also under pressure to perform at a high level and set himself up for a potentially lucrative contract.

Predictions For Top Starting Pitchers

James Paxton

Paxton was among the more coveted left-handed pitchers on the market when the Yankees acquired him from the Seattle Mariners in November 2018.

The Canadian was coming off one of the stronger seasons in his career, one in which he struck out 208 batters in a little more than 160 innings of work while notching nearly five strikeouts per walk.

Paxton had a strong April in his first year with the Bronx Bombers, which seemed like a good omen for New York's new ace. But he was bludgeoned in June and July after dealing with some left knee soreness in May. However, Paxton rebounded. He went 10-0 over the course of his last 10 starts, including a sterling September that produced a 1.05 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in five starts. Opponents had a measly .448 OPS against Paxton during that stretch.

The veteran then came through with a dominant performance in Game 5 of the ALCS, striking out nine in six innings and earning the win.

Paxton will be 32 in November, so time is not necessarily on his side. At the same time, he has not lost any velocity and will be highly coveted as a lefty who has pretty good success against both right- and left-handed hitters.

A good season would go a long way toward forcing the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman to open up the checkbook. Masahiro Tanaka will also be a free agent this offseason, and New York is unlikely to lose both starters as it hopes to extend its championship window.

Prediction: Paxton re-signs with Yankees.

Marcus Stroman

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Whereas Paxton will be under a microscope in the Bronx, there will also be a good deal of pressure on Marcus Stroman in Queens.

The New York Mets enter this season with postseason expectations, though the rotation was dealt a significant loss when right-hander Noah Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Stroman will be counted on to pick up some of the slack.

Stroman pitched fairly well after the Mets acquired him from the Toronto Blue Jays in July 2019, going 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts. He posted more strikeouts per nine innings, though the walk and homer rates also rose.

This is a pivotal year for the Medford, New York, native. Stroman is not the flashiest in how he gets out hitters, but he routinely outperforms standard metrics and finds a way to maximize his talent. He peppers left-handers with sinkers inside and front-doors right-handed hitters with a wipeout slider.

The key for Stroman will be establishing a second out pitch. Opposing hitters had a 35 percent whiff rate and .168 average against the slider, per Baseball Savant, but they also slugged more than .400 against Stroman's sinker, cutter and changeup. If he can be more effective especially with the fastball, Stroman has the potential to be one of the better starters in baseball.

New York paid a fairly high price for Stroman in an effort to contend. He is still on the right side of 30, and it is possible Stroman's best days are ahead of him. Plus, the Mets will have a little more financial flexibility this winter.

Prediction: Stroman re-signs with Mets.

Jose Quintana

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Jose Quintana has not quite been the guy the Chicago Cubs thought they were getting when they acquired the left-hander from the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox in 2017.

The 31-year-old has been respectable, going 33-23 with a 4.23 ERA in 77 starts with the Cubs. Still, Quintana has hardly fulfilled the promise he showed on the South Side.

Quintana's 2019 was especially frustrating. On the positive side, the home run and walk rates both decreased. But Quintana also gave up a career-high 10.1 hits per nine innings, resulting in a 4.68 ERA and 1.386 WHIP.

Chicago picked up Quintana's option for the 2020 season, and he will be looking to cash in on what might be his final opportunity in a Cubs uniform.

The persistent issue has been the changeup. Opponents slugged .538 against Quintana's off-speed in 2019, per Baseball Savant, and they also hit .310 against the pitch in 2018.

Quintana is not a power pitcher. He relies on precise location and keeps hitters off balance with a big, loopy curveball. But because he lacks velocity and does not have a ton of movement, Quintana needs to establish the changeup as another effective pitch in his arsenal.

If Quintana can string together a nice season, he should have a decent market. After all, this is still a guy who ranks 16th in fWAR between 2016 and 2019, per FanGraphs.

The Houston Astros might be a team to watch in Quintana's market. Their focus will likely be re-signing George Springer, but they also need to consider the future of the rotation with both Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke heading for free agency in 2022.

Perhaps Houston can convince Quintana to take a cheaper deal for one or two years, especially given "mid-tier" free agents might struggle to find lucrative deals in the offseason, as The Athletic's Andy McCullough reported.

Prediction: Quintana signs with Astros.

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.