Fantasy Baseball 2020: Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen, Breakout Pitchers to Target

Elite starting pitching was at a premium in fantasy baseball long before the calendar flipped to 2020.

All the unexpected twists and turns since—the most relevant here being Major League Baseball trimming the campaign to just 60 games—have only increased the position's importance.

For everything we don't know about the upcoming season, we're pretty certain breakout starting pitchers will be among the most valuable commodities in all of fantasy sports. Given the shortage of aces, being able to add one without paying the normal price for that kind of output is the gift that keeps on giving—a pattern that often concludes with you being gifted a league title.

The following three starters are all poised for enormous leaps up the SP rankings over the upcoming season.

Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics

Want to know a good time to target a starting pitcher? When talent isn't the reason he's being undervalued.

Granted, there's a reason Luzardo has an average draft position of 114 and is typically the 37th pitcher off the board, per FantasyPros, but it has nothing to do with his stuff. That's all filthy: three plus-to-elite pitches and velocity to boot. The only issue is whether he can stay upright, which he has yet to do consistently. He has thrown fewer than 200 innings in four years since being drafted and never more than 109.1.

That can't be ignored, but the risk is being baked into the price point already. A talent like him shouldn't be available outside of the top 100—and won't be for long.

"This top prospect has absolutely shredded the minor leagues then looked excellent in his debut last year," Bobby Sylvester wrote for FantasyPros. "Much like Walker Buehler back in 2018 and Chris Paddack last year, I'm expecting Luzardo to hit the ground running as one of the top-15 starting pitchers right away."

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

It isn't always easy for a minor leaguer to get noticed, but Gallen took matters into his own hands in 2019. He pitched to a minuscule 1.77 ERA across 14 starts in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and piled up 112 strikeouts against just 17 walks.

When he was promoted to the big leagues, the dominance stayed the same—as it did after a trade from the Miami Marlins to the Diamondbacks. He pitched 80 MLB innings in all, posting a 2.81 ERA and 96 strikeouts. He issued more free passes (36), but as CBS Sports' Scott White explained, the walks actually increase Gallen's appeal for 2020:

"Control was going to be the skill that put him over the top, and yet his 4.1 BB/9 were a far cry from the 1.7 he had in those 14 Triple-A starts. But we know it's a result of inexperience rather than a flaw in his delivery or some other longstanding issue, and most of the blame falls on three wayward starts anyway. Take what we saw last year, add one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in baseball, and it's easy to envision Gallen becoming an ace."

Gallen is among the most popular breakout picks, but it hasn't inflated his price too much. He's still available outside of the top 100 picks (ADP: 115).

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Getting excited about Fried's potential requires looking beyond the traditional metrics.

Upon first glance, his 2019 season seems like nothing special. He had a 4.02 ERA and a touch more strikeouts (173) than innings pitched (165.2). But his advanced metrics said he pitched better than that (3.72 FIP), and ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft found even more reason to feel bullish about Fried:

"He was one of only three ERA-qualified pitchers with at least 24 percent strikeout and 50 percent ground-ball rates plus an 8 percent walk rate or less, joining German Marquez and Stephen Strasburg in that exclusive company. Fried also showed one of the wider average velocity ranges with his four-seam fastball, as well as between his four-seam fastball and changeup, giving him a good array of pitches."

Fried, who once headlined Atlanta's return in the 2014 trade of Justin Upton, could ride that combination of above-average strikeouts and high-end ground-ball and walk rates to fantasy stardom.