2020 MLB Stat Leader Projections For Unprecedented 60-Game Season
Baseball is driven by statistics, whether it's played in a 162-game season or 60-game season.
That said, the statistical leaderboards are going to look decidedly different when the abridged 2020 MLB season comes to a close.
Teams had each played roughly 60 games last June 4.
Cody Bellinger led the majors with a .374 batting average, and his 20 home runs were second only to Christian Yelich's 22.
On the pitching side, Hyun-Jin Ryu (1.35) and Jake Odorizzi (1.96) led their respective leagues in ERA. Max Scherzer (117) and Gerrit Cole (116) were two of four pitchers who had eclipsed the 100-strikeout mark.
That should give you an idea of the types of numbers that could top the leagues this year.
With that in mind, let's take a shot at predicting the American and National League leaders in batting average, home runs, ERA, strikeouts and WAR over the 60-game 2020 season.
AL Batting Average Leader
1 of 10
The Obvious Choice: DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
DJ LeMahieu has the seventh-highest batting average (.302) among qualified active players, and he already has a batting title under his belt from when he hit .348 for the Colorado Rockies in 2016.
He also proved he's more than capable of hitting away from Coors Field last year when he posted a .327/.375/.518 line in his first season with the New York Yankees to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Few players in baseball have better bat-to-ball skills, and LeMahieu could also benefit greatly from a healthy dose of Baltimore Orioles pitching.
The Up-and-Comer: Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins
Luis Arraez began the 2019 season as the No. 11 prospect in the Minnesota Twins farm systemโwell off the leaguewide top 100 prospect pictureโso to say he came out of nowhere is an understatement.
The 23-year-old hit .334/.399/.439 with a minuscule 7.9 percent strikeout rate in 366 plate appearances to finish sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. His .355 BABIP doesn't scream significant regression, and his contact skills speak for themselves.
The Dark Horse: Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox
Yoan Moncada had the highest BABIP (.406) among all qualified hitters last season, so his .315 batting average comes with some rather significant regression risk.
That said, he also hit an absurd .412/.455/.647 in 112 plate appearances during September, racking up 42 of his 161 hits. It's not out of the question to think something may have clicked for a young player who has always had tremendous talent.
Prediction: Arraez (.366)
NL Batting Average Leader
2 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
With a .326 average in 2018 and a .329 average in 2019, Christian Yelich has won back-to-back NL batting titles since joining the Milwaukee Brewers.
He has also proved capable of going on an absolute tear at the plateโhe hit .335/.434/.728 with 21 home runs in 53 games over the final two months of the 2018 season to help the Brewers claim a playoff spot.
The Up-and-Comer: Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
If Jeff McNeil has proved anything in his first two MLB seasons, it's that he can flat-out hit.
The 28-year-old has a .321/.383/.513 line in 815 plate appearances, and his .318 average last season was good for fourth in the NL batting race. Provided he settles in at third base as expected, his offensive game might benefit from the stability of having an everyday defensive position.
The Dark Horse: Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
With 80-grade speed, Trea Turner is the kind of player who can create his own batted-ball luck, and a handful of infield singles could make a huge difference in the batting title race over a 60-game sample size.
He hit .316 over his final 250 plate appearances last season and is a career .291 hitter, so while it would take a bit of a jump for him to be in the batting title conversation, it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Prediction: Yelich (.379)
AL Home Run Leader
3 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
If the season had started on time, both Aaron Judge (stress fracture in rib) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf strain) would have been on the injured list. Who knows if either player will be able to hold up, even over the course of a shortened season?
Nelson Cruz, Joey Gallo, J.D. Martinez and reigning AL home run leader Jorge Soler also jump to mind. But we'll go with Mike Trout as the most obvious pick after he slugged a career-high 45 home runs in 134 games last year.
The Up-and-Comer: Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
One of the few Yankees who managed to stay upright last season, Gleyber Torres launched 38 home runs in his age-22 season.
He hit 20 home runs at home and 18 on the road, and his total was evenly split between the first half and second half, so the most logical explanation for his power surge is simply that he's a dynamic young slugger on the rise.
The Dark Horse: Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
Franmil Reyes ranked among the leaders in exit velocity (99th percentile), hard-hit rate (98th percentile) and barrel percentage (94th percentile) last season, according to Baseball Savant.
That's a recipe for success when it comes to hitting balls really far. He hit 37 home runs in 548 plate appearances while splitting last season between the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Indians, and no longer playing home games at spacious Petco Park should only help his over-the-fence production.
Prediction: Reyes (21)
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NL Home Run Leader
4 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
While leading all of baseball and setting the rookie record with 53 home runs last season, Pete Alonso joined the ranks of the game's elite sluggers.
His 30.6 percent home run-to-flyball ratio was the fourth-highest in the majors and could be tough to duplicate, but there's no reason to think he won't be a perennial contender for the NL home run crown in the years to come.
The Up-and-Comer: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. made a run at the first 40-40 season since 2006 last year, slugging 41 home runs and leading the NL with 37 stealsโall before his 22nd birthday.
He came to spring training talking 50-50, and while that will not be possible, a 20-20 season would be the equivalent over a 60-game schedule. As Acuna continues his ascent to superstardom, that looks well within reach.
The Dark Horse: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
This one is a bit of a stretch, but there's logic behind it.
Will Smith made his MLB debut last season and finished with a 134 OPS+ and 15 home runs in 196 plate appearances. That marked the most home runs by a player with fewer than 200 plate appearances. Could he be baseball's next breakout power hitter?
Prediction: Acuna (20)
AL ERA Leader
5 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
While Justin Verlander walked away with AL Cy Young Award honors last season, Gerrit Cole led the league in ERA (2.50), FIP (2.64) and ERA+ (185).
Yankee Stadium actually played as the second-best pitcher's park in baseball during the 2019 season, according to ESPN's park factors, while Minute Maid Park in Houston was one of the most hitter-friendly. At the very least, Cole's move to the Yankees in free agency is no reason to think his ERA will climb.
The Up-and-Comer: Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler Glasnow went 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .202 opponents' batting average through his first eight starts last season before a forearm issue cost him four months.
He returned in September and had a 1.46 ERA and .119 opponents' batting average in 12.1 innings spanning four abbreviated starts. As long as he stays healthy, he looks like one of baseball's rising young stars.
The Dark Horse: Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics
One of baseball's top pitching prospects, Jesus Luzardo missed time early last season before making his MLB debut in September. He had a 1.50 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 12 innings down the stretch and then twirled three scoreless innings in the AL Wild Card Game.
All signs point to Luzardo as the future ace of the Oakland Athletics staff, and that future could come sooner than later. Hitters' unfamiliarity with him should work in his favor over the course of a shortened season, and he could come out of the gate firing, similar to Chris Paddack's hot start with the Padres in 2019.
Prediction: Luzardo (2.03)
NL ERA Leader
6 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Jacob deGrom has won back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards, and his 2.62 career ERA trails only Clayton Kershaw's 2.44 among active pitchers who have thrown at least 1,000 innings.
He makes a strong case for the title of best pitcher in baseball, and while he finished second to Hyun-Jin Ryu in the NL ERA race last season, he remains the obvious choice to pace the NL in that category.
The Up-and-Comer: Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
In his short career, Walker Buehler has been lights-out when pitching at Dodger Stadium (169.1 IP, 2.60 ERA), Oracle Park (23.1 IP, 3.09 ERA), Chase Field (14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA) and Petco Park (6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA).
Assuming he spends the bulk of 2020 facing off against NL West foes, that bodes well for his chances of posting a low ERA. The 25-year-old has a 2.98 ERA in 319.2 innings over the last two seasons, and he's still getting better.
The Dark Horse: Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves
A rising star in 2018 when he earned a spot on the NL All-Star team and finished eighth in Cy Young Award voting, Mike Foltynewicz struggled to a 6.37 ERA over his first 11 starts last season before he was demoted to the minors.
Six weeks later, he returned as a different pitcher, going 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 57.2 innings over his final 10 starts. Assuming that bump in the road was an aberration, he could return to frontline form.
Prediction: Buehler (1.89)
AL Strikeout Leader
7 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole led the majors with 326 strikeouts last season, and his 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings represented a new single-season record for a pitcher who qualified for the ERA title.
He struck out double-digit batters in 21 of his 33 starts, including nine in a row to close the regular season. The 29-year-old has a lot to live up to after signing a nine-year, $324 million contract, but he has the stuff to deliver on that record-breaking price tag.
The Up-and-Comer: Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Shane Bieber showed flashes of emerging as a quality starter during his rookie season in 2018, but few saw a breakout coming to the level it did last year.
The 25-year-old posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 214.1 innings, and his 259 strikeouts ranked third among AL pitchers. He also had the lowest walk rate among qualified AL pitchers (1.7 BB/9) and tossed three complete games and two shutouts. He has the stuff and pitchability to give Cole a run for his money.
The Dark Horse: Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
Andrew Heaney?
After striking out 180 batters in a career-high 180 innings in 2018, he racked up 118 punchouts in 95.1 innings last season for 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He missed time with elbow and shoulder inflammation, but he has swing-and-miss stuff, and a lightened workload should help him stay healthy.
Prediction: Cole (112)
NL Strikeout Leader
8 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Last season, Max Scherzer failed to make 30 starts for the first time since his rookie year in 2008, and he'll turn 36 years old next month.
That said, the time he missed last year didn't stop him from finishing in the top five in Cy Young Award voting for the seventh straight season, and he piled up 243 strikeouts in 172.1 innings for an NL-leading and career-high 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The extra rest the delayed season has provided figures to benefit him as much as anyone.
The Up-and-Comer: Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Dinelson Lamet has been called a sleeper and potential breakout star so often over the past few months that he may be nearing the rare tipping point where a player goes from unknown to overrated without ever stepping on the field.
But there's a reason he is such a popular talking point. He returned from Tommy John surgery in July and quietly posted a 4.07 ERA with 105 strikeouts in 73 innings. The 27-year-old has always had electric stuff, and now he has a clean bill of health.
The Dark Horse: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
On the surface, Mitch Keller struggled in his first taste of MLB action, posting a 7.13 ERA in 11 starts.
A closer look reveals he was the victim of some bad luck, evidenced by a 3.19 FIP and stellar 65-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 48 innings. That was good for 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, which put him in elite territory. The 24-year-old is one to watch.
Prediction: Lamet (102)
AL WAR Leader
9 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout has led the AL in WAR four times in his eight full MLB seasons, and he didn't finished lower than sixth in the other four seasons.
His 72.8 career WAR already ranks 86th on the all-time list and trails only teammate Albert Pujols' 100.8 among active players. This category is really Trout versus the field, and the smart money is on Trout.
The Up-and-Comer: Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
On the strength of his stellar glove work and plus power, Matt Chapman has posted back-to-back seasons of 8.3 WAR for the Oakland Athletics.
His 16.6 total WAR during those two seasons trails only Mike Trout's 18.4, Mookie Betts' 17.6 and Jacob deGrom's 17.4, and he's still just 27 years old. The future is bright, and a 10.0 WAR campaign in a full season is not out of reach.
The Dark Horse: Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays
Shortstop Willy Adames quietly ranked second on the 96-win Tampa Bay Rays with 4.2 WAR last season, slugging 20 home runs and grading out as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball with 12 defensive runs saved.
The 24-year-old raised his OPS 126 points after the All-Star break, hitting .278/.340/.467 in 251 plate appearances. His arrow is pointing straight up heading into 2020, and the Rays will have a good problem on their hands in a few years when top prospect and fellow shortstop Wander Franco is ready to debut.
Prediction: Trout (3.8)
NL WAR Leader
10 of 10
The Obvious Choice: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
While MVP winner Cody Bellinger led the NL in WAR (9.1) last season, he did a large percentage of his damage during the first half of the season before cooling off after the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, Christian Yelich was once again arguably the best all-around player in the league, leading the NL in batting average (.329), on-base percentage (.429), slugging (.671) and OPS+ (179) in a 7.0-WAR season. He doesn't provide the same defensive value Bellinger does, but his more complete offensive game makes him the obvious choice.
The Up-and-Comer: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Juan Soto hit .282/.401/.548 with 34 home runs and 110 RBI while drawing 108 walks last season, and he did it all before turning 21 years old.
If he can take a step forward defensively (0 DRS, -1.3 UZR/150), there is plenty of room for improvement over last year's 4.6 WAR, and there is little doubt he's already one of the game's rising stars.
The Dark Horse: Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks
Standout defensive metrics can help boost a player's WAR total, and that's a big reason why Nick Ahmed has been a 4.0-WAR player in back-to-back seasons.
The two-time Gold Glove winner has always been a standout defender, but he took his offensive game up a notch last year with career highs in OPS+ (93), home runs (19), RBI (82) and runs (79). The Arizona Diamondbacks rewarded him with a four-year, $32.5 million extension, and his more complete game could turn him into the next Andrelton Simmons from a value standpoint.
Prediction: Soto (3.2)
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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