Green Bay Packers Set Up for Significant Regression in 2020

Prepare for turbulence in Titletown. The Green Bay Packers' fall from 13-3 will end with a heavy thud at Soldier Field on January 3—without a playoff berth. 

The Packers butchered the 2020 draft, and they've prematurely decided to move the offensive focus away from Aaron Rodgers, who's one of the top quarterbacks in the league. General manager Brian Gutekunst confirmed that transition after the team made its Day 2 picks, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky.

"I think Matt [LaFleur] certainly wants to the run the ball," Gutekunst said. "I think he's talked to you guys repeatedly about how much he'd like to run the ball and have the pass work off of that."

After the Packers moved up four slots to take quarterback Jordan Love, team brass selected running back AJ Dillon and tight end Josiah Deguara in the second and third rounds, respectively. The former will join a backfield committee that features Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Coach LaFleur may have a multidimensional role for the latter, per Matt Schneidman of The Athletic.

"LaFleur said the Packers will mimic with Deguara some of what Kyle Shanahan does with 49ers versatile star fullback Kyle Juszczyk," Schneidman wrote. "That means running, blocking, receiving, everything. Or in other words, what LaFleur said he wanted to do with [Danny] Vitale last season but never did."

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

With its top three picks, Green Bay acquired Rodgers' potential successor, a committee ball-carrier who will likely split the rushing workload three ways and a versatile playmaker whose role may not come to fruition in Year 1 because of its complexities. 

We can justify Gutekunst's decision to pick Love. As the general manager, he must maintain a long-term perspective on the roster. Just like the transition between Brett Favre and Rodgers, the handoff to the Utah State product could solidify the club's quarterback position for another decade or so.

However, Gutekunst punted on the opportunity to directly upgrade two major areas of need: wide receiver and the defensive line.

Behind Davante Adams, none of Green Bay's wide receivers eclipsed 35 receptions or 477 yards in 2019. Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Devin Funchess will likely battle for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart, though none of them has shown high-level playmaking consistency on the pro level. 

Last season, opposing teams manhandled the Packers in the trenches. Mike Pettine's run defense ranked 23rd in yards allowed and gave up 4.7 yards per carry, good for 24th in the league. Yet Gutekunst didn't add any interior help during the draft. He signed defensive tackle Treyvon Hester, but the 2017 seventh-rounder has been a backup for three years, logging just 704 snaps on defense. 

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

With question marks at wide receiver and a porous defensive front, you'd think Gutekunst would focus on those position groups. Instead, team brass ignored glaring flaws from a promising year to prepare for 2021 and beyond.

If Rodgers had a subpar 2020 performance, it'd be easy to understand the Packers' indifference to upgrades at wideout. But the two-time league MVP threw for 26 touchdowns (tied for eighth among QBs) and logged a 95.4 passer rating (12th) while learning LaFleur's system. 

The Packers had a chance to pick from a loaded wide receiver draft pool and passed on a potential Day 2 or Day 3 starter capable of taking some pressure off Adams in the passing game.

Even if we justify Dillon and Deguara as appropriate fits in LaFleur's run-heavy scheme, the Packers' oversight of their pressing issue on the defensive line seems inexplicable. 

Sure, Green Bay can pound its opponents with a 6'0", 247-pound rookie ball-carrier as a changeup to Jones and Williams, but other teams also saw the San Francisco 49ers repeatedly gash the Packers up front. Yet the team responded with a veteran bargain-bin signing who may not make the final roster.

Looking at the first half of the Packers' 2020 schedule, they'll play three games against NFC North rivals, three division leaders from the previous campaign and the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers with quarterback Tom Brady on the road. If Green Bay gets off to a sluggish start, frustration could become the first sign of a fissure, specifically between Rodgers and the organization. 

Harry How/Getty Images

Hall of Famer and former Packers quarterback Brett Favre said Rodgers felt "a little disappointed" with the team's decision to pick Love in the first round and went deeper into the signal-caller's mindset during an appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio (h/t ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio).

"Aaron, do you ever look around and say, 'I feel like the odd man out?'" Favre said. "And he said, 'Yeah.'"

When you add in the idea that Rodgers feels detached from the team, the lack of wide receiver help might sting a little bit more for a player who thinks he has some good years left in his arm. 

"I still feel like I have a ton of years left playing at a high level," Rodgers said on ESPN Milwaukee (h/t Demovsky).

LaFleur thinks a run-oriented offense aids the quarterback in the long run, but he could potentially limit a top-notch talent who's still in his prime at 36 years old and coming off an eighth Pro Bowl nod. In any sport, teams put the onus on its best player to win games. The Packers seemed prepared to do the opposite.

Coming off a 13-3 season, a rough stretch through October can lead to early finger-pointing. Without notable contributions from Dillon and Deguara, the blame should go straight to the front office. We may ask questions like, "What if Gutekunst chose a wideout over a backup running back? Why didn't the Packers make a premium investment in another big body to go alongside nose tackle Kenny Clark?"

Halfway through the 2020 term, critics will shine a spotlight on how the Packers managed to fumble during the offseason and alienate their star quarterback. Gutekunst potentially made a couple of good moves for the distant future, though he seemed to lose sight of a win-now outlook.