Capital One's 'The Match': Odds, Advice and Predictions for Charity Golf Event

Joseph Zucker@@JosephZuckerFeatured ColumnistMay 24, 2020

LAS VEGAS, NV - NOVEMBER 23:  Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson walk on the 18th hole during The Match: Tiger vs Phil at Shadow Creek Golf Course on November 23, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images for The Match)
Harry How/Getty Images

Tom Brady generally got the better of Peyton Manning on the gridiron, but the latter is the betting favorite for Capital One's "The Match: Champions for Charity" on Sunday.

The event will help raise $10 million toward the coronavirus relief effort.

Given the scarcity of live sporting events in the United States, plenty of fans will be laying down money—if they haven't already—on the star-studded affair. DraftKings has Manning and Tiger Woods at -200 to prevail (wager $200 to win $100), while Brady and Phil Mickelson are +175 underdogs (wager $100 to win $175).

Mickelson prevailed when he and Woods went head-to-head in Capital One's "The Match" in November 2018. The two were tied after 18 holes and needed four playoff holes before Lefty dealt the decisive blow.

The inclusion of Manning and Brady is a new variable. In an interview with ESPN's Scott Van Pelt, Mickelson posited there could more trash talk this time around since that comes more naturally for football players.

The event will use a four-ball format on the front nine and a modified alternate-shot style on the back nine.

The performances of Woods and Mickelson over the past few years could be instructive in how Sunday's showcase will play out.

According to the PGA Tour website, Woods averaged 34.92 on the front nine and 35.32 on the back nine over 30 rounds in 2019. Those numbers were 33.42 and 36.17, respectively, to open 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic saw the PGA Tour suspend the season.

Mickelson, meanwhile, was slightly worse on the front nine (35.67) compared to the back nine (35.04) this year. The inverse was true in 2019, when the 49-year-old averaged 35.45 on the front half and 35.68 on the back half.

Woods and Manning are -110 to lead after nine holes, with Mickelson and Brady sitting at +175 on DraftKings. A tie through nine is running at +400.

Along with that, banking on Woods and Manning to make a fast start might be a smart investment. They are -150 to be the first team to go one up and -175 to go two up.

Conversely, counting on Mickelson and Brady to make up ground as the round goes on may not be a bad idea. Given his laundry list of health issues and long layoff—he last played Feb. 16 in the Genesis Invitational—Woods might slow down as the day unfolds. That would open the door for Mickelson and Brady to either close the gap or consolidate their lead.

They are +188 to have the stronger score between the 10th and 18th holes.

If you're feeling especially strong in your convictions one way or the other, the odds are +450 that the result, independent of who wins, is wrapped up by the 14th hole or earlier.