2020 NBA Mock Draft: Prospects Facing Major Falls Down Draft Boards

NBA draft stocks can be just as volatile as their business-world counterparts.

Market conditions can drive a prospect's value up or down. The recent obsession with shooting, for instance, has propped up most perimeter marksman but also pushed down interior-bound bigs.

Position abundance or scarcity among the prospect pool or the lottery participants' rosters can also send stocks in either direction. There are also the more static factors such as age, performance and projections that can play super-sized roles in these decisions.

For reasons we'll explain below, we have identified three prospects at risk of a major fall down the draft board.

2020 NBA Mock Draft

1. Golden State Warriors: Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia

2. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Wiseman, C, Memphis

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball, PG/SG, Illawarra Hawks

4. Atlanta Hawks: Obi Toppin, PF/C, Dayton

5. Detroit Pistons: Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv

6. New York Knicks: Cole Anthony, PG, North Carolina

7. Chicago Bulls: Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Iowa State

8. Charlotte Hornets: Onyeka Okongwu, PF/C, USC

9. Washington Wizards: Isaac Okoro, SF/PF, Auburn

10. Phoenix Suns: Killian Hayes, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm

11. San Antonio Spurs: RJ Hampton, SG, New Zealand Breakers

12. Sacramento Kings: Precious Achiuwa, PF/C, Memphis

13. New Orleans Pelicans: Aleksej Pokusevski, PF/C, Olympiacos

14. Portland Trail Blazers: Jaden McDaniels, SF/PF, Washington

15. Orlando Magic: Tyrese Maxey, SG, Kentucky

16. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn Nets): Aaron Nesmith, SF, Vanderbilt

17. Boston Celtics (via Memphis Grizzlies): Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona

18. Dallas Mavericks: Josh Green, SG/SF, Arizona

19. Milwaukee Bucks (via Indiana Pacers): Saddiq Bey, SF/PF, Villanova

20. Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia 76ers): Devin Vassell, SF, Florida State

21. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets): Patrick Williams, PF, Florida State

22. Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Theo Maledon, PG, ASVEL

23. Miami Heat: Kira Lewis Jr., PG, Alabama

24. Utah Jazz: Leandro Bolmaro, SG/SF, Barcelona

25. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Denver Nuggets): Robert Woodard, SF, Mississippi State

26. Boston Celtics: Isaiah Stewart, C, Washington

27. New York Knicks (via Los Angeles Clippers): Tre Jones, PG, Duke

28. Toronto Raptors: Vernon Carey Jr., C, Duke

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Jalen Smith, PF/C, Maryland

30. Boston Celtics (via Milwaukee Bucks): Jahmi'us Ramsey, SG, Texas Tech

Prospects Who Could Fall Down Draft Board

James Wiseman, C, Memphis

James Wiseman has the physical tools and star-level flashes of an early pick, but a few things could lead to a slide on draft night.

For starters, teams don't value this position like they used to. The NBA plays a more spread out and faster game. Offenses want spacing from all five spots. Defenses, then, require the ability to handle switches and defend in space. None of this bodes well for bigs.

Plus, Wiseman has some obvious flaws. As Kevin O'Connor noted for The Ringer, the 19-year-old "lacks physicality," has "questions about his touch from outside," suffers from "poor shot selection" and "lacks discipline" on defense.

O'Connor added that some executives "wouldn't put [Wiseman] in the top 10."

Finally, there aren't many high lottery teams in the big-man market. The Timberwolves have Karl-Anthony Towns. The Hawks traded for Clint Capela. The Cavaliers could build around Andre Drummond. The Knicks have Mitchell Robinson. While the Warriors have an opening at center, they aren't big fans of Wiseman.

The young 7-footer could overcome all of this and still land early in the draft—he is second in our mock, after all—but it doesn't take much imagination to see how these factors could snowball his stock.

Obi Toppin, PF/C, Dayton

After the season Obi Toppin just engineered, it should surprise no one if he's one of the first five players selected.

Despite the shortened campaign, the Flyers won a school-record 29 games as Toppin captured the Naismith Trophy with nightly contributions of 20 points (on 63.3 percent shooting), 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 blocks.

But if you think that makes him invulnerable to a draft slide, you should probably think again.

His case as a top-five pick isn't nearly as iron-clad as his uber-successful season suggests. He already turned 22—Brandon Ingram, the No. 2 pick in 2016, is less than six months older—which could lower Toppin's ceiling. And his floor isn't as high as you would think, with questions around his mobility, motor and strength on the defensive end.

"On top of being older for a lottery prospect, Toppin's fit in the NBA is a real question mark," Forbes' Zachary Cohen wrote. "... If teams are worried about where he can play in order to contribute to winning basketball, it'd be hard to blame them."

Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona

A recent scan of the mock draft universe found that Nico Mannion's draft range stretches from No. 10 to No. 30.

NBC Sports' Rob Dauster came in on the higher end, projecting the 19-year-old to go 14th overall, but the subsequent write-up was far from flattering:

"My concern with drafting him this high is that he doesn't really have an NBA skill. He's a good athlete but not a great athlete, and that isn't helped by the fact that his wingspan is reportedly 6-foot-2.5. He's not great at beating defenders off the dribble in the halfcourt, which is a problem for an NBA point guard. He's a good shooter but he's not a great shooter. He's a high-level passer but he's not Trae Young or Luka Doncic. He tries defensively but he just doesn't have the physical tools to be a lockdown defender. I'm just not sure what he does that truly sets him apart, and the fact that he was the leader of an Arizona team that kept losing games they shouldn't lose is concerning."

Remember, the author of that paragraph projects Mannion as a higher pick than most. Even Dauster's rationale for slotting him 14th is underwhelming, as it cites a relatively high floor because of his basketball IQ, ability to make shots and his capability in the pick-and-roll.

Those aren't great selling points for the lottery, even in a less-than-great draft. Given all the questions with Mannion's physical tools, it wouldn't be at all shocking if he lasts until the tail end of the opening round.