Fantasy Football Expert Analysis for Joe Burrow, NFL Draft 2020 Day 1 Rookies

The first day of the NFL draft is in the books, and that means it's time to explore the potential fantasy impact of the skill-position players who were selected Thursday night.  

We start with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, the top overall player selected. Burrow hits the NFL with solid weapons in Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green and Joe Mixon, so if any rookie at the position has immediate upside, it is him. 

But tread carefully. Only one quarterback (Kyler Murray) finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2019, and that happened in large part because he rushed for 544 yards and four touchdowns. Burrow isn't going to put up those numbers on the ground.

Meanwhile, no rookie quarterbacks finished as top-10 fantasy producers in either 2018 or 2017. Perhaps Deshaun Watson or Lamar Jackson would have with full seasons as starters, but the point is that it's pretty rare for rookies at the position to be immediate fantasy stars. They face major learning curves at the NFL level.

That means Burrow should be drafted as your QB2. 

Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are even riskier. Both could spend the season as backups with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami and Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles. Herbert, in particular, is likely to be groomed for a year. Tagovailoa could start, but at the moment his best offensive weapon is...DeVante Parker. That's not great.

Outside of dynasty leagues, Tagovailoa and Herbert should be low-priority additions. Tagovailoa is a QB2, while Herbert likely won't start and doesn't need to be drafted.

Only one running back was selected in the first round, but he has the biggest fantasy upside of any player drafted. LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs, and it's hard to imagine a better fit. 

Head coach Andy Reid got a pass-catching dynamo in the mold of Brian Westbrook who is also an excellent between-the-tackles runner. Damien Williams has played well for the Chiefs, but Edwards-Helaire has far more upside. If he surpasses Williams as the team's starting running back, he has legitimate RB1 upside. 

Let's turn to receiver, where the top candidates to have a major fantasy impact may surprise you.

Henry Ruggs III was the first player at the position off the board, joining the Las Vegas Raiders, and he actually has major potential with a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr and a relatively mediocre receiver group fighting him for targets. 

Ruggs has big-play threat written all over him and could be a bit inconsistent. But if he develops immediate chemistry with Carr, he has real flex upside. 

The next two wideouts off the board, Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb, are actually less promising. It's not that they lack talent; it's that they landed in suboptimal fantasy situations.

Jeudy has an unproven quarterback (Drew Lock) in Denver and another talented receiver (Courtland Sutton) to battle for targets. Lamb has a very proven quarterback (Dak Prescott) but may be third on the pecking order for targets behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in an offense that ran the ball 28.1 times per game last year, eighth-most in the NFL.

Jeudy and Lamb are talents. They will be good players. But they are rookie receivers on teams that won't maximize their output immediately. Consider them in the WR4-5 range. 

However, one intriguing wideout to watch is Philadelphia Eagles selection Jalen Reagor.

The Eagles were a mess at the position last year, and veterans like DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are unreliable at this point given their injury concerns.

Reagor offers a field-stretching threat for Carson Wentz, and he can also make plays after the catch. The Eagles could utilize him as a jack-of-all-trades, drawing up plays to get him in space or even give him some snaps at running back. Head coach Doug Pederson should get creative with him. If he does, the system and opportunities will give him as much upside as any wideout taken in Round 1. He has flex upside. 

Justin Jefferson is a more imperfect fit with the Minnesota Vikings from a fantasy perspective. He was a receptions machine for LSU, but Adam Thielen is already a receptions machine for the incoming rookie's new team. Stefon Diggs complimented him well because of his field-stretching abilities, but Jefferson is more of a technician.

The Vikings also ran the ball 29.8 times per game last year, fourth-most in the league.

It isn't a seamless fit, and while he should see a solid amount of targets, he seems likely to fall in the WR4-5 conversation. 

Finally at wide receiver, there's Brandon Aiyuk, who was selected by the San Francisco 49ers. Again, this is a good fit with mediocre fantasy upside. San Francisco ran the ball 31.1 times per game last year, second in the NFL, and George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be getting more targets. 

Aiyuk has an opportunity to carve out a role in San Francisco, but it's likely it will only be enough to be in the WR4-5 role.