Predicting the Biggest Contracts Still to Be Struck in 2020 NFL Free Agency
Monday gave NFL fans an unbelievable amount of drama, as the legal tampering period kicked off with franchise-tag designations, massive trades and numerous agreements with a number of big free agents.
The Houston Texans traded star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in a package that netted running back David Johnson, while the Minnesota Vikings sent wideout Stefon Diggs to the Bills.
Meanwhile, Amari Cooper agreed to a five-year, $100 million deal with the Dallas Cowboys, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, and cornerback Byron Jones agreed to a contract with the Miami Dolphins that will make him the NFL's highest-paid cornerback. This is only a small slice of the drama still expected to come.
With the league year formally beginning Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET, plenty of questions need to be answered: Where will Tom Brady and Philip Rivers land? How much will Jadeveon Clowney get paid after the Indianapolis Colts acquired DeForest Buckner and agreed to an extension worth $21 million annually, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport?
The following is a list of the eight biggest contracts we might see in the next few days. These rankings will be based on past production, salary-cap space and team fit.
6. DL Shelby Harris
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Shelby Harris seems bound for a reunion with the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos used a second-round contract tender on Harris last March, and he rewarded them by racking up 6.0 sacks and eight tackles for loss to go with a whopping nine pass deflections and a forced fumble.
Harris' value to the Broncos resides in the fact that he can play inside or outside. He shifted to defensive end when Bradley Chubb torn his ACL in late September, but he might be best suited to nose tackle with Chubb healthy.
Denver has hardly made any splashes in free agency, and it is looking increasingly likely the team will simply resort to re-signing its in-house options.
The Broncos should start with Harris, who had a massive year in his first season as a full-time starter and might turn into a menace on that potentially imposing defensive line.
Prediction: Harris re-signs with the Broncos for three years, $36 million, with $20 million guaranteed
5. CB Logan Ryan
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Logan Ryan is coming off a huge year with the Tennessee Titans.
The former New England Patriots corner had four interceptions and four forced fumbles, and he ranked third in football with 18 pass deflections. Ryan also added 4.5 sacks, giving him at least four sacks in each of the last two seasons.
What will his market look like? Ryan just turned 29 and does not have the same track record for being a lockdown corner as, say, a Chris Harris Jr.
Still, it seems likely Ryan will make his fair share of cash, given how corners have been paid this offseason. Trae Waynes got three years and $42 million from the Cincinnati Bengals, and it seems likely Ryan will command somewhere close to that.
Ryan's last deal was for three years and $30 million. He would like to cash in on his success in Tennessee, and the Philadelphia Eagles might be in a good position to give him the money. They have corner needs after declining Malcolm Jenkins' option and moving Jalen Mills to safety, and Ryan would be a huge upgrade.
Prediction: Ryan signs with the Eagles for three years, $39 million, with $25 million guaranteed
4. CB Chris Harris Jr.
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Chris Harris Jr. has been selected to four Pro Bowls and one All-Pro team during his nine-year tenure with the Denver Broncos, but he will likely be playing for another team in 2020.
He reportedly turned down Denver's two-year, $25 million extension offer prior to the October trade deadline, and he will likely seek a bigger contract, especially in light of the deals Jones and James Bradberry (three years, $45 million, per Rapoport) just agreed to.
The 30-year-old had a decline in productivity this past season. Opposing quarterbacks had a 112.3 passer rating (compared to 86.4 in 2018) and completed 67.1 percent of their attempts when targeting his side of the field. Harris also allowed nearly 14.9 yards per completion, nearly a four-yard increase.
That said, he is an effective press corner who can help against the run. He had 56 combined tackles and a forced fumble last season.
Josina Anderson of ESPN reported the Cowboys, Bills, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders are among the teams interested in Harris, so he has a market.
The Cowboys might look to sign Harris to replace Jones, though they must be wary of their cap space, especially with a looming extension for quarterback Dak Prescott. The Bills are an interesting fit considering they just added veteran corner Josh Norman on a cheap deal to pair with All-Pro Tre'Davious White, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo.
The Raiders in particular standout, however, as they could use help in the defensive backfield. They ranked 31st in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in 2019, per Football Outsiders, and they have a little under $45 million in cap space.
Prediction: Harris signs with Las Vegas for three years, $45 million, with $28 million guaranteed
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3. OLB Dante Fowler Jr.
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Editor's Note: After publishing, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that the Atlanta Falcons are signing Dante Fowler to a 3-year deal worth up to $48 million.
Dante Fowler Jr. had a huge year for the Los Angeles Rams, racking up 11.5 sacks, 16 quarterback hits and 58 combined tackles to go along with two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
The 25-year-old proved to be a capable pass-rusher and run-stopper from the outside linebacker spot, and he tallied six pass deflections in coverage.
Los Angeles has a number free agents this year, including defensive lineman Michael Brockers, who is leaving for the Baltimore Ravens, according to Rapoport.
The Rams elected not to use the franchise tag on either Fowler or fellow linebacker Corey Littleton despite previous speculation they would do just that. Yet it seems they are intent on keeping at least one of their young linebackers. Michael Silver of NFL Network reported Monday the Rams were hoping to re-sign Fowler, but he didn't mention Littleton.
The Rams cannot afford to lose another effective pass-rusher if they hope to keep drawing attention away from Aaron Donald. A return to Los Angeles seems likely for Fowler, even if the Rams have to edge close to their cap limit (only $24.3 million) to retain him.
Prediction: Fowler re-signs with the Rams for four years, $60 million, with $38 million guaranteed
2. WR Robby Anderson
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Robby Anderson is arguably the best receiver on the market now that Amari Cooper agreed to re-sign with the Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals slapped A.J. Green with the franchise tag.
The speedster has not quite been able to match his production from 2017, when he caught 63 passes for 941 yards, but he is still a legitimate deep threat. He hauled in 52 receptions for 779 yards last season, averaging 15 yards per catch for the second consecutive year.
Anderson previously told ESPN's NFL Live that he and New York had "mutual interest" in a long-term deal, but it does not appear talks have gone anywhere. However, Rich Cimini of ESPN reported the Jets are letting Anderson "shop around," with the idea they will make the final pitch.
It seems unlikely the Jets would allow Anderson to leave, even if they have to pay a little extra to retain him. They need weapons around quarterback Sam Darnold, and it seemed the two established a nice rapport in the final six weeks of the 2019 season.
Prediction: Anderson re-signs with the Jets for five years, $65 million, with $33 million guaranteed
1. DE Jadeveon Clowney
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There is no denying Jadeveon Clowney is one of the best defensive players in football. Despite a significant drop-off in sack total (nine to three), he racked up four forced fumbles and two defensive touchdowns last season, and he was everywhere in the playoffs.
The 27-year-old is unlikely to re-sign with the Seattle Seahawks, though. Buckner's deal with the Colts all but guarantees Clowney will make upward of $21 million per year, and Peter King of NBC Sports previously reported the Seahawks would "wait for the price to go down." Yeah, not happening.
Alternatively, King suggested the New York teams might make a run at Clowney, and Matt Bowen of ESPN listed Clowney as a "perfect scheme fit" for the Giants.
The Giants ranked 31st against the pass in terms of DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and adding a terror like Clowney to the front four might alleviate some of the pressure on New York's secondary. However, Jordan Raanan of ESPN said Clowney is "not happening" for the Giants.
So, we pivot to the Jets, who need an edge defender and have nearly $40 million in cap space, per Over The Cap. Plus, the Jets have a history of handing out the big deals, as we have seen with C.J. Mosley and Le'Veon Bell.
Prediction: Clowney signs with the Jets for four years, $86 million, with $60 million guaranteed
All stats obtained via Pro Football Reference and all contract information via Spotrac, unless otherwise noted.
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