2020 Men's NCAA Tournament: Are We Headed for the Mid-Major No. 1 Seed Era?

The most impactful shot in the recent history of the NCAA men's basketball tournament was a miss, a 40-foot heave that bounced hard off the backboard, caromed off the front rim and dropped harmlessly to the court.

That was in the final seconds of the 2010 tournament when Butler's Gordon Hayward nearly upended Duke...and then didn't. And yet a decade later, that moment doesn't resonate with the same wild improbability it once did. It's become clear that his near-miss portended a future in which college basketball would become more democratized than ever.

On the verge of this year's NCAA tournament, we are on the precipice of a new milestone.

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

It's possible—and even likely—that two so-called "mid-major" schools, Gonzaga and Dayton, will land No. 1 seeds for the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. A third mid-major, San Diego State, was in line for a potential No. 1 seed before losing to Utah State in the finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament, and both Villanova and Creighton, each out of the Big East, seem likely to land No. 2 seeds.

I recognize that's something of a stretch of the definition given that Villanova has won two national championships in the past four years and Gonzaga has been a national power for two decades. It's also not exactly a surprising development since Gonzaga, Dayton and San Diego State are all objectively excellent, according to KenPom.com's efficiency rankings.

All of this proves the term "mid-major" has become outdated, a "broken" designation that no longer applies to many of the schools that don't belong to one of the traditionally dominant conferences but haven't yet figured out a better way to describe themselves.

However, the idea that the mid-major identification no longer holds meaning is itself a signifier of incredible progress, and it shows, perhaps once and for all, that the sport is emerging into a new era of parity that could very well be here to stay.

Back in 2006, CBS broadcasters Jim Nantz and Billy Packer criticized the tournament's selection committee for including too many mid-majors, including George Mason, a bubble team that appeared to have little chance of making it out of the first round. Even after it made the Final Four as a No. 11 seed, it felt like a once-in-a-lifetime aberration.

Four years later, when Hayward's shot nearly upended Duke—and then Butler made it back to the title game the next year—it felt more like a tribute to the undeniable brilliance of head coach Brad Stevens than some sort of fundamental shift in the power dynamics of the sport.

In fact, the NBA's 2005 one-and-done rule appeared as if it would push things in the opposite direction.

Back in 2012, with a roster replete with future NBA stars, Kentucky won a national championship under head coach John Calipari. Yet despite Calipari's ability to churn out first-round draft picks, that's the only title he's earned.

James Crisp/Associated Press

In 2014-15, Kentucky won 38 straight games before losing in the Final Four. The Wildcats haven't made a Final Four since—unlike Gonzaga, which made it to the title game in 2017 and will likely lock up its fourth No. 1 seed in the past 10 years this week, and unlike Loyola, a No. 11 seed out of the Missouri Valley Conference that matched George Mason's seemingly unrepeatable Cinderella run by making the Final Four in 2018.

That's perhaps the wildest part of this: Even the term "Cinderella" is starting to feel increasingly outdated.

Perhaps the astonishing level of parity we witnessed during this particular regular season is unsustainable. Perhaps the sheer number of underclassmen who jumped to the NBA last season is to blame for much of it.

But if the NBA abolishes its one-and-done rule by 2022, as Commissioner Adam Silver expects, this could become the new norm. And you might argue that college basketball loses something without the marquee names of future NBA stars to define it; you might even argue that the thing that's long defined the NCAA tournament—upsets—could lose its power if there's so much parity that nothing feels like an upset anymore.

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

But a decade after Hayward's heave, that's where we are: on the verge of what would appear to be the wildest and most unpredictable NCAA tournament in modern history.

It would not be a surprise if Dayton, which last made the Final Four in 1967, winds up in the Final Four this year. It would not be a surprise if San Diego State, which has never made it past the Sweet Sixteen, is there, as well. It would not be a surprise if Gonzaga were to make it, too, or if any of those schools became the first so-called mid-major to win a national title since UNLV in 1990.

All of this may portend a future in which the NCAA tournament is more unpredictable than ever and the very notion of a mid-major is relegated to the dustbin of history.