Biggest Underperforming Teams of the 2019-20 Men's College Basketball Season
Everyone loves a good Cinderella story in college hoops, but there are a bunch of teams this season repeatedly living out just the part of that fairy tale where the clock strikes midnight and the magic carriage turns back into a pumpkin.
These teams are your 2019-20 anti-Cinderellas. They started the season looking like possible royalty before devolving into nothing close to it.
By comparing teams' current KenPom.com ranking to where they were projected by Pomeroy to begin the season, we get a nice snapshot of which teams have most failed to live up to expectations.
We're only interested in teams that were supposed to rank in the top 100, though. No sense in dragging squads like Samford or NJIT through the mud for dropping from approximately 130 to 300.
Moreover, this is not intended to be a rote ranking of which teams dropped the largest number of spots in the rankings. Rather, any preseason top-100 team that has since plummeted at least 40 spots was deemed eligible for this list and then ranked on how embarrassing this season has been.
10. Northwestern Wildcats
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 86
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 129
What Went Wrong?
Frankly, it makes no sense that Northwestern was a top-100 team in the first place, and it demonstrated as much with home losses to Merrimack and Radford within its first three games.
The Wildcats went 13-19 last year, didn't beat a single NCAA tournament team and lost 12 of their final 13 games. And then they lost their three leading scorers, Vic Law, Dererk Pardon and Ryan Taylor, as graduates. It was always a strong possibility this season would be disaster.
Predictably, there's nothing that Northwestern does all that well, ranking outside the top 300 in three of the eight categories of KenPom's "Four Factors"—effective field-goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage and free-throw rate. (Four factors; eight categories when split into offense and defense.) To their credit, the Wildcats do a fine job of avoiding turnovers. Not much good it does them when they can't shoot or rebound, though.
While Northwestern is 6-18 overall and has just win one in the past two months, it hasn't been that awful. Its shortcomings seem to be more the product of the Big Ten gauntlet than anything else, and the Wildcats have still come close to pulling off a bunch of upsets.
Seven of their last 14 losses were by five points or fewer. The Wildcats simply haven't been able to seal the deal against any of the 12 teams in the conference vying for a spot in the NCAA tournament. And if that trend continues, it's excellent news for the rest of the conference.
9. Miami Hurricanes
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 65
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 107
What Went Wrong?
As far as KenPom is concerned, this is Miami's worst season since at least 1996-97 and easily the worst of the past decade.
The offense has been good-not-great. Three Hurricanes are averaging better than 13 points per game, including Oklahoma State transfer Kameron McGusty. And they have a solid batch of second-tier scorers with four guys averaging 6.0-8.0 points. Though they have lost seven of their last 10 games, the 'Canes put up at least 71 points in seven of those contests.
With an adequate defense, that offense would get them in the running for an at-large bid.
Instead, Miami's defense has been abysmal, especially by Jim Larranaga's standards.
In the six games played against the ACC's upper tier (Duke, Florida State and Louisville), Miami has allowed 87.8 points, losing five of those games by at least 13. The Hurricanes also gave up 94 points to North Carolina, twice let NC State reach 80 and even gave up 80 in a blowout loss to Connecticut.
Compare that to three years ago when they only allowed 80 points in a game once in the entire season, and it's clear this is not the Hurricanes team we're accustomed to seeing. They're playing at a faster pace than usual, they struggle to defend the three-point arc and they have frequently been hurt by an inability to end possessions with defensive rebounds.
Add it all up, and Miami has been a piñata for most quality opponents. The lone exception was the game against Illinois when the Hurricanes sprinted out to a 35-11 lead in the first 11 minutes. But because of their poor defense, they still had to hang on for dear life to win 81-79.
8. TCU Horned Frogs
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 46
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 90
What Went Wrong?
TCU's season wasn't falling this shy of KenPom projections until just a couple of weeks ago.
When the Horned Frogs faced West Virginia on Jan. 14, they were slightly ahead of expectations, sitting at 12-3 overall and at No. 45 on KenPom. But in their next nine games, they lost eight times and were outscored 646-502 (negative-16.0 PPG).
There wasn't a roster change or anything prior to that West Virginia game. That's simply the juncture where they transitioned from OK to bad, especially on defense. Those nine opponents shot 43.0 percent from three-point range and averaged 17.1 assists per game. Moving the ball around the perimeter and finding open space has become effortless against TCU.
Meanwhile, the offense has hardly been setting records for proficiency, shooting 27.0 percent from deep while averaging 10.9 assists against 14.9 turnovers in those nine games. The last time the Horned Frogs scored more than 68 points was Jan. 4.
In TCU's defense, we're focusing on a brutal stretch on the schedule. Six of the nine games were on the road and the three home games were against Kansas, Texas Tech and Texas. They probably should have won the home game against the Longhorns, but that's the only one that wasn't expected to be loss.
The problem is the Horned Frogs completely no-showed a lot of those expected losses, losing at Oklahoma by 20, at West Virginia by 32 and at Texas Tech by 46. Hard to remain in the good graces of the predictive analytics while laying eggs like those.
7. Virginia Cavaliers
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 5
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 51
What Went Wrong?
As it turns out, even Tony Bennett's defense-first system has a hard time replacing four starters in a single offseason.
The reigning national champions are the lone team on this list that still has a realistic shot for an at-large bid, but it has been a down year for Virginia whether it ultimately sneaks in or not. After finishing six consecutive seasons ranked 12th or better on KenPom, the Cavaliers have dropped down to the 50 range thanks to atrocious offense.
It recently looked like they had turned a corner, scoring 73 at Louisville last Saturday. But they came plummeting right back to earth with a 50-point effort—with five extra minutes of overtime, no less—in the subsequent game against Notre Dame. They are averaging under 57 points per game for the season.
As with soon-to-be-discussed Georgia, the big issue is poor teamwide three-point shooting. Tomas Woldetensae has come on strong in the past few weeks, twice hitting seven triples in a game. Even with that surge, though, he's still below 40 percent, and the next-best shooters, Mamadi Diakite and Kihei Clark, are below 35 percent.
And, again, those are Virginia's good shooters. Guys like Braxton Key (21.4 percent), Kody Stattmann (22.7) and Casey Morsell (17.1) can be left all alone along the perimeter with little fear of consequence.
Clark has struggled in the turnover department (3.4 per game), and because Virginia's slow pace of play results in fewer fouls than a "normal" college basketball game, the Wahoos typically can't even make up for their three-point shooting by getting to the free-throw line. It's just a bad situation overall on offense, and it's putting a stellar defensive season to waste.
6. Toledo Rockets
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 81
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 169
What Went Wrong?
With Buffalo expected to slip back to the pack in the MAC—which it has and then some—this was supposed to be the year that Toledo ended the drought, reaching the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1980. The Rockets went 25-8 last season and brought back three of the top contributors from that squad.
But it hasn't worked out that way for 12-14 Toledo, in large part because its defense became a colossal liability.
The Rockets certainly weren't elite on D last year, but they were more than adequate on that end of court. There were a couple of woeful showings against Buffalo, but they usually held opponents below 75 points and went 23-0 in those games.
But across the board, they are worse on defense this season, ranking 259th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 69th in 2018-19.
Here's the thing, though: Toledo was 247th in that category en route to a 23-11 record two years ago. It also ranked 250th in AdjDE in 2013-14 when it went 27-7, so it's more than just poor defense. There's also terrible late-game luck involved, as Toledo is 1-10 in games decided by seven points or fewer.
Then again, if the Rockets could get a defensive stop every once in a blue moon, perhaps they wouldn't be losing all these nail-biters. Either way, this season hasn't gone according to plan to say the least.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 55
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 106
What Went Wrong?
First and foremost, the senior leadership has been lacking. Both Tyree Crump and Jordan Harris have played worse and are making less of an overall impact than last season. And on a roster that is otherwise one of the least experienced in the nation, that is not a great starting point.
Equally troubling, no one on the team can consistently shoot threes. Anthony Edwards certainly attempts a ton (7.5 per game), but he only makes 30.2 percent. In fact, the only Bulldog converting at a clip greater than 33.3 percent is 10th-leading scorer Christian Brown, who is 6-of-16 (37.5 percent) on the year. As a whole, they are shooting 29.9 percent from distance.
That inability to hit threes becomes an even bigger issue when taken in conjunction with Georgia's lackluster defense. The Bulldogs have allowed 82.2 points in their 13 losses, and it's darn near impossible to keep pace with the necessary 83 points when you don't make threes and aren't great at anything in particular.
On the plus side for second-year head coach Tom Crean, Georgia has already won more games (12) than last year (11) and its star player might be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft. However, this Edwards-led freshman class that was ranked 11th overall by 247Sports' composite hasn't provided nearly the transformation that was expected.
4. Missouri Tigers
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 39
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 104
What Went Wrong?
To a certain extent, we can attribute Missouri's woes to injuries.
Jeremiah Tilmon has barely touched the court since before Christmas, and we have yet to see Mark Smith in February. The Tigers somehow defeated Arkansas and Auburn without having either of those players at their disposal, but it has been mostly downhill for a while. They have lost nine of their last 13 games, and most of those weren't even close.
Even when healthy, though, Missouri rarely looked the part of a top-50 team. One month into the season, the Tigers were 4-4 and had lost a home game to Charleston Southern. They would eventually rally a bit with wins away from home over Temple and Illinois, but the damage had already been done. And once Tilmon went out, the floodgates opened.
As was the case during last year's 15-17 campaign, Missouri commits too many fouls and turnovers and doesn't shoot well. And the shooting portion of that equation has gotten significantly worse. With Jordan Geist graduated and with Torrence Watson and Xavier Pinson both enduring a brutal sophomore slump from the perimeter—combined 37.3 percent last year; combined 28.3 percent this year—this team often cannot buy a three-point bucket.
From Jan. 4 through Feb. 4, Missouri was held below 60 points in six of 10 games played.
3. Texas Longhorns
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 31
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 84
What Went Wrong?
For starters, the freshman class has been a bust.
Will Baker, Kai Jones and Donovan Williams were all rated as top-75 talent, but they've combined for 147 points through 25 team games. That's not even 2.0 points per player per contest. And for a team that lost four of last year's seven leading scorers in Kerwin Roach, Jaxson Hayes, Dylan Osetkowski and Elijah Mitrou-Long, that's hardly a fair trade-off.
And with none of those newbies making a significant impact, this Longhorns offense has been quite bad outside of the occasional Jericho Sims highlight dunk.
On KenPom, Texas' offense ranks outside the top 150 in every category except for rate of three-point attempts. But taking 42.4 percent of your shots from beyond the arc is hardly a bragging right when you make less than 33 percent of them.
They weren't that bad for most of nonconference play, but in 12 Big 12 contests, the Longhorns have averaged 59.0 points. Sure, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech rank among the 10 most efficient defenses in the country. But that doesn't explain the 81-52 loss to Iowa State on Saturday, nor the 70-48 loss to Providence in late December.
Texas just isn't good, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the end of the line for Shaka Smart in Austin. This will be the program's third time missing the tournament in four seasons—after getting there 16 out of 17 years under Rick Barnes.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 6
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 95
What Went Wrong?
What hasn't gone wrong?
Aside from almost pulling off a stunning upset over archrival Duke earlier this month, North Carolina has been a dumpster fire since the beginning of December, losing 14 of its last 18 games.
Losing Cole Anthony for a few weeks to a knee injury is what jump-started the descent into disaster, but the Tar Heels still can't score even with their star guard back on the floor. They book-ended the surprising performance against the Blue Devils with a 59-point game against Florida State and a 57-point dud against Wake Forest.
They have already been held below 60 five times, which was something that happened just three times in the previous four seasons combined.
Seeing players in those iconic college basketball threads throw up brick after brick makes you wonder if little aliens from the planet Moron Mountain sapped them of their talent.
To make matters worse, this is the poorest North Carolina has played on defense under Roy Williams, in part because this is a disjointed roster that has been rendered even less cohesive by enduring one injury after another.
The Battle 4 Atlantis was the only time North Carolina was playing at anything close to full strength, and it was solid during that three-day stretch. Maybe the Tar Heels can re-harness some of that rhythm for a shocking run into the latter stages of the ACC tournament. Short of winning that event, though, there's already no chance this team receives an invitation to the Big Dance.
1. Texas A&M Aggies
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Preseason KenPom Ranking: No. 58
Current KenPom Ranking: No. 168
What Went Wrong?
One year ago, Buzz Williams was coaching one of the most lethal three-point shooting teams in the country. Virginia Tech averaged 9.3 makes per game with a success rate of 39.4 percent. But he left the Hokies for an Aggies team that can't hit the broad side of a barn.
Texas A&M is shooting 26.0 percent from beyond the arc, which is easily the worst mark among major-conference teams. Incredibly, there's not a single player on the roster shooting better than 30.4 percent.
Williams was able to lead a poor-shooting Marquette team to a No. 3 seed and a spot in the Elite Eight in 2013, but at least that squad made its twos and free throws, owned the offensive glass and knew itself well enough to only take 27 percent of its field-goal attempts from distance. This A&M team can't shoot well from anywhere on the court, and it makes matters worse by turning the ball over on a far-too-regular basis.
In fairness, the Aggies haven't been a crisp shooting team at any point in the past decade, and they ranked 240th in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) last year. It's not like Williams inherited a red-hot bunch of scorers and turned them into a hot mess. But things have painfully gone from bad to worse, as they currently rank in the bottom 10 nationally in eFG%.
That's neither bottom 10 percent nor bottom 10 among major-conference teams. It's bottom 10 overall, and it's hard to watch.
Pair that with a zone defense that gives up a ton of open looks at threes, and you've got the recipe for one of the worst major-conference teams. Barring some miraculous turn of events, this is going to be the fourth consecutive year in which A&M falls well short of preseason KenPom projections.
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