NBA Teams That Should Start a Full Rebuild Right Now
A full-scale teardown and rebuild isn't for everyone. Not every fanbase can exercise the patience necessary for a "Trust the Process"-level timeline.
But years of treading water in the sea of mediocrity (or worse) can be even more difficult to stomach. And there always seems to be a handful of teams stuck there.
The teams listed below are either holding on to the NBA's middle tier or already appear to be exploring the total rebuild option.
It's time for all of them to go all-in. See what you can get for the veterans on the roster. Accumulate as many assets and young players as possible. Start fresh.
It may take some time to get back to winning, but a higher-risk approach opens up the possibility of greater rewards.
San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs have perked up lately. LaMarcus Aldridge is now shooting threes (48.1 percent from deep on 4.3 attempts per game since Dec. 23, compared to 31.8 percent on 1.7 attempts before then). DeMar DeRozan has been unconscious over the same post-Dec. 23 stretch, averaging 26.4 points and 5.7 assists with a 66.2 true shooting percentage.
Still, over the entire season, San Antonio is minus-3.0 points per 100 possessions when the two stars share the floor, a net rating that ranks in the 36th percentile. The defense is allowing 113.8 points per 100 possessions with those lineups in play. And while things weren't as bad last season, the team was still better when the duo was off the floor than when it was on (plus-5.5, compared to plus-1.1).
Some of that has to do with more playing time for DeRozan and Aldridge against starters, but the former only has one positive net rating swing in his 11-year career, and the latter is 34.
The Spurs may well end up in the playoffs (they're currently in 10th place), but to what end? This isn't a title-contending team. Extending the postseason streak to 23 years would be nice, but returning to the NBA's top tier would be better.
San Antonio already has some intriguing young talent on the roster in Lonnie Walker IV, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl and Derrick White (all 25 and under). It's time to see how that group can be supplemented by whatever return the Spurs can get for Aldridge and DeRozan.
To this point in the season, Murray and White have played a whopping 110 possessions together. Add Walker and that number drops to nine total possessions. That seems like an impossibly small sample size. If Gregg Popovich is averse to seeing how the young players look together, the front office may have to move some of the options who are standing in the way.
Charlotte Hornets
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As trade-deadline week tipped off Monday, the Charlotte Hornets found themselves in more than one rumor (though they're all possibly related).
The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported that the Hornets had discussed a possible Julius Randle trade with the New York Knicks. SNY's Ian Begley pegged Terry Rozier, Malik Monk and Dennis Smith Jr. as others who might be involved.
If you're of the mind that Randle is closer to the 2018-19 version of himself than the 2019-20 version, pairing him with Devonte' Graham makes some sense. Otherwise, a swap of Randle and Smith for Rozier and Monk feels like a lateral move.
Going further down the current path is more akin to a full-blown rebuild. Hornets coach James Borrego has already prioritized the youngsters' minutes over veterans like Cody Zeller, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bismack Biyombo. The next step is seeing whatever value may be out there for those contracts.
Biyombo, Williams and MKG are all on expiring contracts. Biyombo could provide some decent second-unit defense in a role of about 10 to 15 minutes. Williams is intriguing as a small-ball 5 for the twilight of his career.
MKG, Batum and Zeller may be slightly tougher sells. Kidd-Gilchrist has struggled with injuries for the last two years and does not space the floor (28-of-100 from three for his career). Batum is in his age-31 season, has a $27.1 million player option looming for 2020-21 and is posting the worst numbers of his career. Zeller is on the hook for $15.4 million next season (not terrible for a backup 5, but also not ideal).
Even if it becomes clear that the Hornets won't get great returns for any of the above, they'll have to think about accepting what's out there. None figure to be part of the long-term plans, and a second-round pick is better than having a player walk for nothing.
New York Knicks
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If you squinted hard enough, you might have been able to make out a logical two-track rebuild engineered by Knicks executive Steve Mills this past offseason.
Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox II, Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina were on the roster with various levels of potential. At least they're all young. Signing players like Randle, Marcus Morris Sr., Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis and Wayne Ellington to manageable (and movable) contracts was mostly fine, if you can get past the whole "we just added four power forwards" thing.
The plan has panned out about as poorly as it could have.
Head coach David Fizdale was fired in early December. Tuesday, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that president Steve Mills was out too.
Most of the young players haven't just been bad. They've been awful. Barrett, Knox and Smith are among the league's worst 22-and-under performers, according to box plus/minus. Ntilikina isn't much better. That leaves Robinson as the only one who looks like a surefire building block. His rim rolling and protection are welcome sights compared to the extreme inefficiency of the others. In fact, he's the only player on the roster with an above-average BPM.
What's worse, it's impossible to have a feel for how this group works together. There's only a 50-minute sample for any combination of four of the five players discussed above.
As is the case with San Antonio, it's time for the Knicks to unburden the coaching staff. Trade any veterans who may be making it difficult to play all the young players together.
This team isn't going anywhere this season. It needs to see which (if any) combinations of the young players work together. And if any of the veterans yield decent trade value, you can add more potential pieces to the puzzle.
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Detroit Pistons
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We're in the middle of Andre Drummond's eighth NBA season. During this stretch, Drummond ranks first (by overwhelming margins) among Detroit Pistons in value over replacement player, points, rebounds and blocks.
He's also 79th (dead last) in raw plus/minus at minus-500. And the Pistons' winning percentage has been between 34.6 and 53.7 in each of those eight campaigns.
Few teams scream mediocrity quite as loud as the Drummond-led Pistons. It's time for a fresh start.
In-season reporting suggests Detroit may realize this. Drummond's availability has been public for months. Monday, Wojnarowski reported the Pistons had been in talks with the Phoenix Suns about dealing Luke Kennard (one of the only players on the roster one might be able to deem off-limits).
Derrick Rose has played well enough to net some kind of return this season. Drummond could be intriguing for teams that are looking for extra muscle for the playoffs. Detroit will probably just have to wait out Blake Griffin's deal.
The name of the game for Detroit should be "asset accumulation." Whatever the Pistons can get for all of the above, they should get.
Sekou Doumbouya had an intriguing run in the first half of January, but there isn't a single great bet for future stardom on the roster. The Pistons need to give themselves more chances to find that.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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It's been quite a season for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
On Nov. 14, they were 7-4. Their social media team trollingly tweeted, "tHe WoLvEs aRe GoInG tO bE bAd tHiS sEaSoN" with a GIF of star Karl-Anthony Towns giving the camera something of a "seriously?" face.
Since the tweet, Minnesota is 8-30. It hasn't won a game in which Towns appeared since Nov. 27. He's on a personal 16-game losing streak. FiveThirtyEight gives the squad less than a 1 percent chance to make the postseason. The offense and defense both rank in the bottom half of the league. The offense is in the bottom third.
This roster was a mess. And the front office may have tried to fix it on Tuesday.
In a whopper of a four-team deal reported by various outlets, Minnesota sent out Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Keita Bates-Diop, Noah Vonleh and Jordan Bell. It received Evan Turner, Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez and Jarred Vanderbilt.
This may not be a long-term fix, though. Other than KAT, who has special offensive abilities, there isn't much star potential. The goal should be steering further into a rebuild before the last couple of years on Towns' current contract (which expires in 2024).
More moves may be difficult for Towns on a personal level, but sustained success would help him overcome that. Speaking recently with The Athletic's Sam Amick, he discussed the difficulty of playing for a team often in flux and said he hopes the team doesn't trade Covington:
"I mean, you've been through my journey. You've seen how much change I went through. Obviously there's a lot of decisions (where), obviously, as a person—person to person—you obviously don't like, and as a player you may not like, but it's something you've got to live with. And that comes with just having trust in those guys, so I'm not going to say either—anything. Like I said, I don't get paid to make those decisions. Those are tough decisions, but here's to hoping that I see Cov on Friday I guess. … Look man, he's a great guy, a great dude. He's a great player. He's helped me tremendously and he's continuing to help me every day. He just gives me such comfort out there."
So much for that.
Minnesota is reportedly after Towns' friend, D'Angelo Russell. Such a deal may be easier for the star to process on an emotional level. And after the mega-trade, the Wolves have a good salary-matching piece in Turner to pair with picks. As reported by The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, the big outgoing contract might end up being Andrew Wiggins.
While a Russell trade might lead to some disastrously bad defense, at least it would be a new path with two special offensive talents. The blueprint could be to surround the duo with as many gritty, switchable defenders as possible.
One thing's for sure: The status quo—KAT and Andrew Wiggins as the top two options—isn't cutting it.
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.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")