Early Top Contenders for Super Bowl LV
Super Bowl LIV is now a part of history. The Kansas City Chiefs outlasted the San Francisco 49ers in a thrilling title bout to snap a 50-year championship drought.
The Chiefs will spend the next few days—or perhaps weeks—enjoying their big win, but they and every other NFL team are now sitting at 0-0 for the 2020 NFL season. The slate is clean, and every franchise can again dream about reaching the next Super Bowl.
Of course, some teams are better equipped to reach Super Bowl LV than others. Here, we'll break down the early favorites for 2020—according to Caesars, as of Tuesday, January 4—and why they are in a position to make a serious run at a title.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 18-1 Odds
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It's not a shock to see the Pittsburgh Steelers listed as early favorites, though it should come with a caveat. Pittsburgh very much can compete for a championship if—and perhaps only if—quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is back to 100 percent after missing most of 2019 with an injury to his throwing arm.
That's a big if, as Roethlisberger will be 38 and coming off of elbow surgery next season. However, the Steelers are optimistic.
"Everything we hear so far is positive. In particular Ben's attitude about things," owner Art Rooney II said, per Mark Kaboly of The Athletic.
If Roethlisberger is healthy, this could be a dangerous team. It managed to go 8-8 without Roethlisberger in 2019, thanks in large part to a stellar defense—one that allowed just 18.9 points per game.
The core of the roster should remain relatively unchanged. The only vital players scheduled to enter free agency are defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and linebacker Bud Dupree. A healthy Roethlisberger will theoretically spark an offense that still has weapons like JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Diontae Johnson and James Washington, adding much-needed balance to the team.
Two years ago, Roethlisberger passed for a league-leading 5,129 yards and 34 touchdowns. He should be a major upgrade over the tandem of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges.
The Steelers will still have to contend with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, but they should be a team to watch for if they get into the postseason.
Green Bay Packers: 18-1
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It is a bit surprising to see the Green Bay Packers getting the same odds as the Steelers, as Green Bay made it to the NFC title game in 2019. This is likely a testament to the relative weakness of the AFC field and the fact that the Packers may have overachieved in Matt LaFleur's first season.
"Honestly, I was a little surprised," Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy said, per Rob Reischel of Forbes. "...You look back through the history of the Packers. No other first-year head coach had the kind of success that he did."
Overachievers or not, the Packers were dangerous in 2019. Aaron Rodgers played at his usual Pro Bowl level, and the backfield duo of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams was tremendous. The defense, while not a shutdown unit, was aggressive up front and efficient at keeping opponents out of the end zone.
Though Green Bay ranked just 18th in yards allowed (352.6 per game), it ranked ninth in scoring defense (19.6 points per game).
The Packers need to find a reliable No. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams and tighten up their run defense—which ranked 23rd in the regular season and was awful against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Re-signing impending free agents like right tackle Bryan Bulaga and linebacker Blake Martinez will also be important.
If Green Bay can keep its core intact while adding just a couple of missing pieces, it can go a step further than it did this past year.
Seattle Seahawks: 16-1
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The Seattle Seahawks were far from a perfect team in 2019. Their defense, which ranked 22nd in scoring (24.9 points per game) and 26th overall often forced quarterback Russell Wilson to put games on his shoulders. The running game, which averaged 137.5 yards per game, was very good but was decimated by injuries late in the year.
Seattle eventually had to bring in retired running back Marshawn Lynch just to field a functional running game in the playoffs.
Yet, the Seahawks still earned an 11-5 record and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs. It's fair to wonder how far they might have gone with running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny both healthy and available. Fans may find out in 2020.
To make the jump from a strong wild-card team to a legitimate title contender, Seattle has some work to do. First and foremost, it desperately needs to upgrade its pass rush. Despite bringing in Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekiel Ansah last offseason, Seattle amassed a mere 28 sacks during the regular season. A more consistent pass rush and some added talent in the secondary could help improve a pass defense that allowed an average of 263.9 yards per game.
The Seahawks may also have to bolster their backfield as Penny and Carson recover from a torn ACL and a fractured hip, respectively. Rebuilding the offensive line—Mike Iupati and Germain Ifedi are both impending free agents—will also be critical.
This is a critical offseason for the Seahawks. They're not far away, but they could either improve or decline significantly through their moves in free agency and the draft.
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New England Patriots: 14-1 Odds
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The New England Patriots are just ahead of the Seahawks, and that should surprise exactly no one. Though the odds will likely change if quarterback Tom Brady departs in free agency, New England pretty much always has to be considered one of the favorites in the AFC. The Patriots have been to nine Super Bowls under head coach Bill Belichick and won six.
The big questions for New England are whether Brady will return and whether the team can put some better weapons on the offensive side of the ball. If the answer to both is yes, then the Patriots will have a shot at another title.
It would be a mistake to ignore the fact that New England finished with the league's first-ranked defense in both scoring (14.1 points) and yards allowed (275.9). Many of their core defenders—like Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton—are scheduled to hit free agency. If the Patriots can retain them, however, they should again field an elite defense.
It's the other side of the ball that needs sorting out. It could, however, be a field-stretching receiver and a pass-catching tight end away from again being a threatening unit. The offensive line should see a boost from the return of starting center David Andrews, who missed all of 2019 with a blood clot issue.
"I feel great," Andrews said, per ESPN's Mike Reiss. "I have a bunch of doctors' appointments in February. [Hopefully] get all that cleared up and be good to go for next year."
New England was a playoff team last year, narrowly missing out on a first-round bye. There's little reason to believe it won't be right back in the mix in 2020.
Dallas Cowboys: 12-1
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Will the head coaching change from Jason Garrett to Mike McCarthy make the Dallas Cowboys a title contender? Las Vegas must believe so, because 12-1 odds feel extremely high for a team that finished 8-8—with a healthy starting quarterback, unlike Pittsburgh—and failed to make the postseason in 2019.
McCarthy may not be coaching the same level of talent, either. Dallas has key players like Byron Jones, Amari Cooper, Robert Quinn and Randall Cobb scheduled to hit the free-agent market. So is quarterback Dak Prescott, though Dallas will likely franchise-tag him.
"With no long-term contract in sight, the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott are heading straight toward a situation in which the team will have to use its franchise tag on the star quarterback," ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote.
If Prescott decides to hold out for a long-term deal, this will present a whole different set of problems. If he doesn't, it will eat up a large chunk of Dallas' projected $74 million in cap space. Last year's tag value for quarterbacks (nonexclusive) was just under $25 million.
To get to the Super Bowl, the Cowboys will have to contend with the reigning NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles within the division—Philadelphia is getting 25-1 odds—and the likes of the Seahawks and 49ers in the postseason.
A bounce-back season is possible, but expecting McCarthy to take Dallas to a championship in his first season feels like a stretch.
New Orleans Saints 12-1 Odds
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As is the case with the Patriots, the odds for the New Orleans Saints could see a big shift if quarterback Drew Brees does not return. Brees has said he plans to take his time deciding whether to return, though he stressed that he's treating it no different than the past couple of offseasons.
"I think everybody is making a big deal out of this," Brees said Friday on The Dan Patrick Show. "...I'd say over the last three years, truly, I've approached each year just one at a time. Saying that I'm truly going to play this year like it's my last and therefore, I'm going to enjoy it that way too."
If Brees does return, the Saints should be positioned to make another playoff run. This was a 13-win team in 2019 that just barely missed out on a first-round bye. It has several talented young players—like Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Davenport—and an innovative coach in Sean Payton.
Cap space could be a potential obstacle for New Orleans, though. The Saints are projected to have under $13 million in cap room and have players like Andrus Peat, Eli Apple and P.J. Williams slated to hit the open market—not to mention Brees himself.
Brees will also carry a cap hit of $21.3 million if he doesn't re-sign due to a phantom year on his contract set to automatically void.
Still, if New Orleans can keep this team together, it should again be one of the top squads in the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers: 9-1 Odds
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Unsurprisingly, the 49ers are among the favorites to win Super Bowl LV. They had a 10-point fourth-quarter lead over the Chiefs on Sunday and would likely be the favorites if they had been able to hang on to it.
However, even the mighty San Francisco defense couldn't contain Patrick Mahomes for four full quarters. That's tough for the 49ers and their fans, but it doesn't mean this cannot be a championship team a year from now.
"We'll lick our wounds, and we'll get over this," head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per SI.com's Conor Orr. "We'll be fired up for next year."
San Francisco was arguably the most balanced team in the NFL this past season. It ranked second in points scored, fourth in offensive yards, 13th in passing, second in rushing, eighth in points allowed, second in total defense, first in pass defense and 17th in run defense.
If there was a question mark on the roster, it was quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo—and he finished the regular season with a passer rating of 102.0. There wasn't a glaring weakness anywhere to be found.
Now, keeping this roster intact could be tricky, as the 49ers are expected to have roughly $21 million in cap space. That's a decent amount of room, but they also have players like Emmanuel Sanders, Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward, Kyle Juszczyk and Ben Garland slated to hit free agency. San Francisco may be forced to lose a couple of key pieces in March.
However, the Niners should again be the team to beat in the conference.
Baltimore Ravens: 7-1 Odds
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The Baltimore Ravens were shocked in the divisional round of the playoffs by the upstart Tennessee Titans. Tennessee won by doing to the Ravens what they had done to so many opponents during the regular season: They built an early lead and then pounded them into oblivion with the running game.
Leading up to that surprising loss, though, plenty of folks pegged the Ravens as the best team in the NFL, and it isn't hard to see why. They hadn't lost a game since Week 4 and had blown out the majority of their opponents. With the league's No. 1 scoring offense (33.2 points per game) and No. 3 scoring defense (17.6 points per game), Baltimore was truly a force to behold.
This will likely be the case again in 2020. League MVP Lamar Jackson will still be the quarterback and could be even more unstoppable in his third NFL season—a scary thought considering he racked up 3,127 passing yards, 1,206 rushing yards and 43 total touchdowns in 2019.
"I'm still young," Jackson said, per ESPN's Jamison Hensley. "I've still got a lot of work to do."
Baltimore will also bring back key players like running back Mark Ingram II, wideout Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens do have some key players headed toward free agency, like cornerback Jimmy Smith and linebacker Matt Judon, but they're also expected to have more than $26 million in cap space.
The Ravens should be able to maintain their roster and possibly even improve it in free agency. That's perhaps the most impressive thing about this team. The chances of a significant decline in 2020 are virtually nonexistent.
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-1 Odds
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To be the champ, you have to beat the champ. OK, so this doesn't ring true in the NFL, but it definitely does when examining the early favorites for 2020. Kansas City just proved that it is the best team in the league. Another team isn't going to get better odds before the start of free agency.
There's a very good chance the Chiefs will still be the best team in the league on paper after the offseason. Yes, they do have standouts like Chris Jones, Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller scheduled for free agency, but the core of this team is under contract in 2020. Jones is priority No. 1 for free agency, and with roughly $19 million in projected cap space, the Chiefs should be able to work something out with him.
Most importantly, though, the Chiefs will have Mahomes. As is the case with Lamar Jackson, the 2018 MVP might be even more dangerous next year than he was in his first two. That's tough to believe, but Mahomes has only started 36 games, including the postseason. With experience and knowledge, Mahomes should continue to improve.
Mahomes' collection of speedy pass-catchers—Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman—will all be back as well. So will running back Damien Williams, who had had 104 rushing yards, 29 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs can add another talented back to complement Williams, they may field a consistent rushing attack to go with their explosive passing game.
Plus, the Chiefs will have head coach Andy Reid. Now that the offensive innovator has finally gotten his first Super Bowl win out of the way, he may find that chasing the Lombardi Trophy is a little less daunting of a challenge.
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