Super Bowl 54: Predictions for 49ers vs. Chiefs Stats, Final Score and MVP

The Super Bowl LIV game plans have been assembled, analyzed and tweaked again—probably several times over.

These adjustments will likely continue up to the start of Sunday's championship collision between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, as both Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid put their genius football minds to the ultimate test.

This should be epic. The Chiefs have a jet-fueled passing offense, directed by Patrick Mahomes, but they can run when needed, and their defense is vastly underrated. The Niners have a ferocious defense, highlighted by Richard Sherman and Nick Bosa, plus a relentless rushing attack, but don't sleep on Jimmy Garoppolo. He can beat teams through the air when needed.

This matchup looks so good on paper we can't just sit around and wait for Sunday. Instead, we're breaking out the crystal ball to predict which team comes out on top, who posts the biggest numbers and which player goes home with the MVP trophy.

Super Bowl LIV Schedule

Date: Sunday, Feb. 2

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: Fox

Odds: Chiefs -1.5, Over/Under 54.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)

Super Bowl LIV Predictions

Notable Numbers

Patrick Mahomes is such a dynamic weapon you probably hear the phrase video-game numbers attached to his production a lot. But if virtual players were posting the kind of stats he's delivered during this playoff run, there would be broken TVs and holes in the wall all over the globe. Through two games, he's passed for 615 yards, rushed for another 106 and totaled nine touchdowns without a turnover.

He'll come back to earth a bit (by his standards, at least) on Sunday, as Bosa and Co. put pressure in his face and record at least four sacks. But teams don't stop Mahomes, they merely contain him. Containment in this case still allows him to throw for 267 yards and three touchdowns, one of which is taken to the house by speedster Tyreek Hill.

San Francisco's offense counters with better balance. The rushing game takes center stage early, as Raheem Mostert keeps the upper hand in the running back hierarchy. He doesn't get a workhorse's load, but he touches it enough to reel off 137 rushing yards and a pair of scores.

But the Niners need more points than the ground game alone can provide, so Jimmy Garoppolo shows critics what he can do when called upon. He nearly attempts 30 passes—he's thrown just 27 through two postseason games—and fills his stat line with 239 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Final Score: 49ers 35, Chiefs 31

These defenses are tremendous, and each employs multiple game-breakers. San Francisco, which allowed the second-fewest yards, boasts first-rounders all across the front line, speed at linebackers and discipline in the defensive backfield. Kansas City, which surrendered the seventh-fewest points, can cause havoc off the edge with Frank Clark, through the interior with Chris Jones or just about anywhere with Tyrann Mathieu.

It's possible none of that matters.

Shanahan and Reid have had two weeks to pick apart the other teams' defenses. Mahomes wrecks game plans on his own, by escaping the pocket and either rushing down field or creating passing lanes to a speedy receiver. San Francisco's running game has enough power and juice to motor right through a defense even when the entire stadium knows what's coming.

In other words, expect plenty of points.

This will be a nail-biter all the way, but our crystal ball sees San Francisco getting the last laugh on a clock-killing, crushingly long drive. Mostert will be at the heart of it, but Garoppolo will make the throws he needs to, usually to George Kittle or Deebo Samuel. When Mostert scores the final touchdown in the final minute, not even Mahomes will have enough time to answer.

MVP: Raheem Mostert

How sweet would that story be, right?

Surely, you've heard his tale by this point, a wild journey from being cut six times to erupting in the NFC Championship with one of the most dominant outings ever seen on that stage. In case you're still unfamiliar with the Niners' breakout back, then get familiar with this superb profile from B/R's Tyler Dunne.

Mostert combines patience and vision with the burst you'd expect out of a former track star. He's also running in a brilliantly schemed system and behind a talented offensive line.

The stars are aligning for another big day. The Niners need to run the ball to keep Mahomes on the sideline. They should find rushing lanes to exploit, too. While you've surely heard how the Chiefs cooled off the red-hot Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship, you might not have been told this defense allowed 128.2 rushing yards per game this season—seventh-worst overall and dead last among playoff participants.

While the Niners have no shortage of potential MVP candidates—Garoppolo, Bosa, Sherman, Kittle, Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, the list goes on and on—none are better positioned for success than Mostert. With stats, significance and a killer storyline all supporting the candidacy, Mostert will separate from the crowd and earn the top individual honor in San Francisco's triumph.