Trade Deadline Targets for NBA's Biggest Buyers
As we inch closer to the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline, contending teams weigh the benefit of stealing from their future for a chance at glory in the present.
When perfectly executed, win-now moves can take a team from the cusp of contention to the promised land.
Pulling off moves like these takes a bit of luck, too. The right player needs to become available at a suitable price.
The following players should fit snugly within the roles and price ranges of would-be contenders.
Malik Beasley, SG, Denver Nuggets
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It's a numbers game in Denver, and Malik Beasley is the odd man out.
The 2016 No. 19 overall pick has always had the skill to earn minutes in Denver but never the opportunity. With veterans Gary Harris, Jamal Murray and Will Barton ahead of him in the pecking order, the Nuggets don't seem likely to match a huge offer sheet for Beasley in restricted free agency this summer. (They got rebuffed while attempting to negotiate an extension with him this past fall.)
But some team may want to acquire Beasley to gain the ability to match any offer sheet he receives.
At 6'5", Beasley can play either the 2 or the 3. The Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per 100 possessions with him at the 3 this season, while they had a plus-8.1 net rating with him at the 2 last year.
He can punish teams with his pull-up or from the corners, where he's shooting 40.7 percent this season after shooting 44.6 percent in 2018-19. He shot 62.1 percent from within eight feet last season and 48.4 percent from 8-16 feet.
If the Nuggets keep him past the deadline, their odds of losing him for nothing would exponentially increase. If another team can give them matching salary and a late first-round pick, it could have a promising young wing with less than 3,300 career minutes of tread on his tires.
Robert Covington, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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According to Ben Cohen of the Wall Street Journal, a number of teams are jostling over Robert Covington, including the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. With the Minnesota Timberwolves sitting at 14th in the West heading into Wednesday, it seems like a matter of when, not if, they'll trade him.
The 29-year-old is under contract through the 2021-22 season, but the Wolves aren't likely to get back into title contention before his deal expires. As such, they would be wise to flip veterans for assets that can complement franchise center Karl-Anthony Towns as he moves into his prime.
Covington should be able to fetch a handsome reward due to his defensive playmaking and his versatility. Last season, he ranked 12th in the NBA in defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com.
The Wolves are outscoring opponents by 10.9 points per 100 possessions with Covington at the 3 this season, and they're in the 93rd and 90th percentile, respectively, in points per possession and effective field-goal percentage with him at that spot. His three-point shooting has regressed this season (34.8 percent), but he shot 36.9 percent or better in his previous two seasons on over six attempts per game.
If the Wolves can snag an asset and/or a first-round pick for Covington, they'd be wise to pull the trigger.
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
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Heading into the 2019-20 season, New Orleans Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin hyped up Jrue Holiday as a potential MVP candidate.
"We feel like Jrue Holiday can take a jump similar to [Steve Nash] if the right pieces are around him," Griffin told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
But with Brandon Ingram emerging as an All-Star-caliber player and Lonzo Ball also improving, Holiday has quickly slid down the Pelicans' pecking order. To further complicate matters, 2019 No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson has surpassed all of them in usage rate (27.4) in his first four regular-season games.
With Lonzo as the facilitator, Zion as the muscle and Ingram as the closer, Holiday's future with these Pelicans may be as a fourth option. And by the time they develop into a championship-caliber squad, he might become too expensive.
Ingram, Ball and Josh Hart are all able to ink extensions in the next two years. Meanwhile, Holiday can become an unrestricted free agent in 2021 if he declines his $26.3 million player option for the 2021-22 season. Would the Pelicans be willing to offer a then-31-year-old Holiday a huge contract at that point?
Wojnarowski recently reported that the Pelicans have "really pulled back in trade talks among all their players" (via Forbes' Tommy Beer), as they want to see how Holiday and their other veterans mesh with Williamson. But as ESPN's Zach Lowe hinted on his latest podcast, a Holiday deal may still be in play.
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Andre Iguodala, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
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Andre Iguodala has yet to suit up for the Memphis Grizzlies this season in accordance to an agreement he reached with the team prior to training camp. While the upstart Grizzlies have surged into the playoff race after a sluggish 6-16 start, he doesn't plan to backtrack on his current stance.
"Water under the bridge," one former NBA executive told B/R's Eric Pincus. "And Iguodala wants to play for a team with a chance to do something special in the playoffs. Ja [Morant] is amazing and the Grizzlies have been a lot better than anyone expected, but their best case is a first-round knockout to the [Los Angeles] Lakers."
Iguodala hasn't averaged 10 or more points since the 2012-13 season, so he won't provide much of a scoring boost to any contender. However, his penchant for secondary playmaking can open an offense and complement a team's primary facilitators. And after shooting 41.0 percent on corner three-point attempts during the 2018-19 regular season, he shot 47.1 percent during the Golden State Warriors' playoff run.
Defense is where he thrives, though. Iguodala spent time guarding the likes of James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams in last year's playoffs, among others, which speaks to his versatility.
Teams without the requisite salary-matching pieces may prefer to see if the Grizzlies end up buying Iguodala out, but they've repeatedly said they won't do so. Some team should be willing to part with an asset to add one of the NBA's most versatile defenders.
Marcus Morris, SF/PF, New York Knicks
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Marcus Morris originally agreed to a two-year, $20 million contract with the San Antonio Spurs in July, but he later backed out of that agreement in favor of a one-year, $15 million contract with the New York Knicks.
With the Knicks falling well short of their laughable playoff expectations, it's time for them to conduct yet another fire sale.
Morris' defensive switchability and touch from deep should intrigue contenders. He's shooting 44.3 percent on 5.9 three-point attempts per game, which is the fifth-best mark among all qualified players, and he ranks in the 95th percentile or better at both corner and non-corner threes.
Though he's been one of the league's least efficient players at the rim this season, he is capable of punishing the opposition in the mid-range, which is a valuable skill set for a playoff team. And his 6'8", 235-pound frame could enable him to body up forwards such as LeBron James (250 lbs) and Kawhi Leonard (225 lbs).
If a team is willing to give up a protected first-round pick for Morris, he might be able to aid in its championship pursuit.
JJ Redick, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
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In news that should surprise absolutely no one, JJ Redick has been on fire from deep this season. He's drilling 46.5 percent of his 6.7 three-point attempts per game, the third-best mark among all qualified players.
However, his effect is far beyond that of a simple floor spacer. He ranks in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and he's in the 99th percentile as a roll man (third-best in the NBA). In isolation, Redick ranks in the 97th percentile.
His off-ball movement and threat as a perimeter scorer open the floor for teammates. His veteran leadership is equally essential for the Pelicans as they develop their young core of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball.
But the Pelicans have no chance to contend for a title in 2019-20, and Redick is already 35. Time is not on his side, even though he's under contract through next season.
Contenders in need of additional shooting should be willing to send a draft pick or a young prospect to the Pelicans in exchange for Redick. While they might not want to trade him, his age is in direct contrast to the organization's long-term timetable.
Derrick Rose, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Derrick Rose is wasting away on a Detroit Pistons team going nowhere, but he's been sensational this season.
Only three players—LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Trae Young—are exceeding Rose's per-36-minute averages of 25.4 points and 8.1 assists. His 3.27 offensive real plus-minus ranks 12th in the NBA among those who have played at least 20 games, per ESPN.com. Rose also ranks in the 93rd percentile in usage, the 95th in points per possession and the 98th in assist percentage.
At 17-31, the Pistons are heading straight toward the lottery. Andre Drummond could leave this summer in free agency if he declines his $28.8 million player option, so the Pistons may decide to flip him at the deadline rather than risk losing him for nothing.
While Rose is under contract through the 2020-21 season, it would make sense for the Pistons to trade him as well.
A lengthy injury history limited the 31-year-old to 51 or fewer games in six of his first 11 seasons. But when healthy, he's still an explosive open-court playmaker who can break down defenses in half-court sets, too.
The Pistons are facing yet another rebuild, which is difficult enough to stomach. Rose can take a would-be contender over the top and provide Detroit with an asset or two in return.
Dennis Schroder, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
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If you haven't been watching the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, you're missing a leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate in Dennis Schroder. He's one of only 11 players with per-36-minute averages of at least 21.8 points, 4.6 assists and 4.5 rebounds.
After spending 100 percent of his minutes at point guard through his first five seasons, Schroder has been splitting his time between both guard positions over the past two years. The Thunder are outscoring opponents by 18 points per 100 possessions with Schroder at the 2 (98th percentile) this season, as they score 120.2 points (96th percentile) and limit opponents to 102.3 (94th).
Schroder has never shot better, either. He's shooting 38.2 percent from three while boasting an effective field-goal percentage of 53.9, which are far above his previous highs of 35.1 percent and 49.3 percent, respectively.
The 26-year-old Schroder is just entering his prime, and he's putting it all together on a scrappy Thunder squad that currently sits seventh in the West. With only one year and a manageable $15.5 million remaining on his contract, some team should see whether the Thunder are willing to offload him for draft compensation or a young player to pair alongside budding star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
All stats via NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass, unless otherwise noted.
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