Projecting the Biggest Price Tags for This Year's NFL Free Agents

For some of the top NFL players, Christmas comes in March. Veterans with expiring contracts will sign extensions, test the open market or accept the franchise tag in hopes to eventually agree on a long-term deal. Regardless, teams have new money to pass around.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the 2020 salary cap could exceed $200 million, which bodes well for players who seek massive wage increases in the offseason.

The 2020 free-agent pool will look different from the groups from recent years. Several veteran quarterbacks are up for new deals, providing a rare abundance of talent at the position on the open market.

Other than quarterback Nick Foles, defensive players headlined free agency last year. Defensive end Trey Flowers and linebacker C.J. Mosley signed for $18 million and $17 million per year, respectively. In March, we're going to see huge numbers for more signal-callers, pushing veterans at other positions further down the top earnings list among free agents.

We'll project and rank the 10 biggest contracts based on yearly salary. Who's going to laugh all the way to the bank in the spring?

10. WR Amari Cooper

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At the beginning of the 2019 season, Amari Cooper performed at the level of a wide receiver who deserved top dollar at his position. He eclipsed 105 receiving yards four times in the first nine games—which included two 11-catch performances against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.

Yet down the stretch, Cooper's production faded. Even more alarming, he disappeared in crucial games. In Week 12, the New England Patriots didn't allow him to record a catch.

The Cowboys' coaching staff opted to substitute Cooper out of the game for Tavon Austin in the final minutes of a pivotal Week 16 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. He converted 12 targets into four catches for 24 yards in that outing.

Cooper acknowledged his inconsistencies.

"I wouldn't say I hit my potential this season even though it's a career high in yards and in touchdowns," he told reporters. "I thought I could've accomplished a lot more, but I didn't, so it's a good reason to be able to go back to the drawing board and work my butt off this offseason, so that ... in a way can be a good thing."

Despite Cooper's rough patches this past campaign, he finished with career highs in receiving yards (1,189) and touchdowns (eight). At his best, which we saw through the first half of the 2019 term, he's a lead wideout.

As well, the wide receiver market doesn't look strong for 2020. Fellow free agent A.J. Green is a "priority" for the Cincinnati Bengals, according to head coach Zac Taylor, which indicates the front office will make a strong effort to extend his contract.

Assuming Green re-signs, Cooper would be the best wide receiver on the market. He'll likely have his choice among multiple suitors if the Cowboys allow him to explore other options.

Expect his annual salary to slot into the third spot among wide receivers between Michael Thomas ($19.3 million) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($18 million).

Price Tag: $18-19 million

9. DT Chris Jones

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Teams that want to avoid massive payouts to edge-rushers may attempt to bolster the pass rush with an interior defender capable of shooting gaps to pressure the pocket. Because of the position denotation (defensive tackle), general managers may be able to save millions of cap dollars.

Over the last two seasons, Chris Jones has been one of the best interior pass-rushers, logging 24.5 sacks. He's not a one-dimensional player either. In 2018, the 25-year-old ranked fifth in tackles for loss (19).

If Jones hits the open market, a team in need of help on the defensive line will likely pay top dollar for his every-down capability—likely close to $20 million annually. Kansas City may not be the team to pay him, though.

ESPN's Adam Teicher reminds us how the Chiefs handled edge-rusher Dee Ford's contract situation.

"Barring agreement on a long-term contract, look for the Chiefs to give Jones the franchise tag," Teicher wrote. "The Chiefs traded last year's franchise player, Dee Ford. While in a perfect world the team would prefer to keep Jones, that scenario may prove too costly."

When it comes to a high-profile defensive asset, the Chiefs may follow the same blueprint as last year, franchise-tagging a top defensive player and trading him for draft capital.

Last offseason, Kansas City acquired and signed defensive end Frank Clark to a five-year, $104 million deal. The front office also inked safety Tyrann Mathieu to a three-year, $42 million pact. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be eligible to sign an extension that could come close to or exceed $40 million annually.

With those contracts on the books and a massive Mahomes deal likely on the way within a year, the Chiefs may not have the financial flexibility to pay Jones what he's worth.

Unless Jones plays out the 2020 term on the franchise tag, he's probable to sign a yearly $19-20 million contract elsewhere, which would put him second among players at his position behind Aaron Donald ($22.5 million) and in front of Fletcher Cox ($17.1 million).

Price Tag: $19-20 million

8. DE Jadeveon Clowney

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A week before the 2019 season began, the Seattle Seahawks acquired Jadeveon Clowney from the Houston Texans in exchange for linebackers Barkevious Mingo and Jacob Martin along with a third-round pick.

If you focus solely on Clowney's sack number (three) this past season, his production seems underwhelming off the edge.

However, he finished 27th in quarterback pressures (30). He wreaked havoc in crucial games—particularly in Seattle's first outing against the San Francisco 49ers (five quarterback hits) and during a divisional-round contest with the Packers (seven tackles, two quarterback hits and a half-sack).

Teams that line up to sign Clowney will pursue him for the full package as opposed to just sacks. In six seasons, he doesn't have a double-digit total in that category, but he makes his presence felt through constant pressure, run stops and some pass breakups (14 for his career).

If Clowney somehow gains possession of the football, he's a threat to score. The three-time Pro Bowler has at least one defensive touchdown in each of the last three seasons.

After a divisional-round loss to the Packers, he shortened his list of potential suitors, per ESPN's Brady Henderson.

"I'm trying to get to the Super Bowl by any means," he said. "That's what I'm looking for: Who's going to get me there? I ain't looking to get on no sorry team for no money. That ain't going to fly."

Clowney will perform at his best when the lights shine bright. Based on his free-agency comments above, he's not a good target for a middle-of-the-road team that may fall out of playoff contention midway through the season. However, a club with a quarterback on a rookie contract and a defense that's one piece away from a dominant unit could toss $20 million per year at him on a short-term deal.

Clowney is more versatile than an interior defender. As a 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker, he will probably sign a more lucrative deal than Jones on the open market.

Price Tag: $20-21 million

7. DE Yannick Ngakoue

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If Yannick Ngakoue hits the free-agent market or the Jacksonville Jaguars franchise-tag and trade him, he's arguably the best pass-rusher who could be on the move this offseason.

Unlike Clowney, we could clearly see Ngakoue's impact in the box score. He's a prolific pass-rusher with at least eight sacks in each of the last four seasons, logging 37.5 in total.

Ngakoue has also steadily improved as an edge-setter against the run. He's registered at least 10 tackles for loss in each of the last three terms. According to ESPN's Michael DiRocco, the 24-year-old will command a hefty price on a long-term deal.

"Ngakoue wants a new contract that pays him around $22 million annually," DiRocco wrote. "The Jaguars weren't amenable to that last offseason, so he played out the final year of his rookie deal. The Jaguars are almost certainly going to franchise Ngakoue and hope to work out a deal before camp."

As a productive pass-rusher, Ngakoue can make lofty demands through his agent, but the Jaguars could use the franchise tag to keep him around for another term. After Josh Allen's strong rookie campaign, Jacksonville may opt to trade the fourth-year veteran.

General manager David Caldwell told reporters that Ngakoue's contract situation is "priority No. 1." As DiRocco pointed out, we can expect the franchise tag.

Whether Jacksonville works out a new deal for Ngakoue or not, he should receive what he's asking for with his current team or another—around $22 million. That would top Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence's annual salary ($21 million).

Price Tag: $21-22 million

6. QB Philip Rivers

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Now, we're going into quarterback money, which results in a notable boost in salary because it's the most important position in the NFL.

Despite coming off a disappointing campaign, Philip Rivers will clear $25 million annually. He went through a rough three-game stretch in which he recorded eight interceptions from Weeks 10 through 13. Yet the 38-year-old threw for 4,615 yards and 23 touchdowns with his 20 picks.

Rivers' long stretch of competent play will help excuse a subpar 2019 term. As a capable signal-caller who's still a relatively accurate passer (66 percent completion rate), he could draw interest from teams other than the Los Angeles Chargers.

Daniel Popper of The Athletic suggested Rivers shouldn't rush into a deal and allow the market to dictate his price.

"If Rivers agrees to a deal with the Chargers before the combine, he could be sacrificing earnings," Popper wrote. "And he's made it clear that he would consider playing for another team. So all signs point to him at the very least inquiring about what else is out there, even if it's only to draw more money out of the Chargers."

Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac estimates a $26-27 million deal for Rivers. While that seems reasonable, we can knock off about a million because of the rare number of veteran quarterbacks on expiring deals. Five of them are listed ahead of him in this ranking because of age, production or resume.

Price Tag: $25-26 million

5. QB Jameis Winston

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to figure out if they're willing to take Jameis Winston's production with his mistakes. Head coach Bruce Arians assessed his quarterback in blunt terms following the 2019 season.

"You look at it and there's so much good and so much outright terrible," he told the media. "We got to weigh that and see what happens."

Arians' words aren't a strong endorsement for Winston, but we can't ignore his gaudy numbers. He logged 5,109 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.

Keep in mind, Winston posted those numbers in his first season under Arians. Perhaps he'll cut down on turnovers as he gains familiarity within the system. Then again, the 26-year-old has struggled with turnovers throughout his five-year career.

Tampa Bay should use the franchise tag to give Winston one more year to improve on his decision-making or confirm a major flaw in his game that may stick regardless of experience in a scheme.

The Buccaneers could use the non-exclusive franchise tag to their advantage, warding off potential suitors without overspending long-term on an inconsistent but productive quarterback.

Assuming the cap number goes up to approximately $200 million, the non-exclusive franchise tag would cost approximately $26.7 million. If Winston receives an offer, the Buccaneers can match the proposal, retaining the starting signal-caller, or allow him to go and recoup two first-round picks from his new team.

Winston likely played his way into another year with the Buccaneers on the franchise tag. With the flaws in his game, it's hard to imagine any team would give up two first-rounders to pry him away from Tampa Bay. The 2015 Pro Bowler will probably remain with his current team on a prove-it deal.

Price Tag: $26-27 million

4. QB Ryan Tannehill

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Ryan Tannehill experienced a quick ascension with the Tennessee Titans—one that could lead to a lucrative salary.

Last offseason, the Titans acquired Tannehill and a sixth-round pick from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a seventh-rounder in last year's draft and a 2020 fourth-rounder. Starting Week 7, he took advantage of an opportunity, replacing Marcus Mariota under center within a stagnant offense.

Tannehill's production and efficiency helped guide the Titans to the postseason on a 7-3 run following a 2-4 start. At the end of the season, he led the league in yards per pass attempt (9.6) and quarterback rating (117.5). The 31-year-old earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year and Most Improved Player honors from the Pro Football Writers of America.

During the Titans' improbable run, the front office discussed an extension for Tannehill, per ESPN's Dianna Russini.

Despite a loss in the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs, the Titans' view of Tannehill likely hasn't changed much. He's the reason Tennessee had a chance at a Super Bowl appearance.

Of course, running back Derrick Henry deserves some credit, but Tannehill stabilized the Titans offense and made good use of his perimeter weapons.

Most notably, rookie wideout A.J. Brown made strides following the switch at quarterback. He led the club in receptions (52), yards (1,051) and touchdowns (eight) as Tennessee's top pass-catching asset. The tight end group, which includes Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt, also flashed with lead playmaker Delanie Walker on injured reserve (ankle).

Despite Tannehill's impressive run to the conference championship, Tennessee should make sure the second half of his 2019 campaign isn't a flash in the pan.

In Miami, he was a capable starting quarterback for six seasons. Clearly, he had his best stretch last year, but the Titans would likely feel better about committing to him long-term after another year of high-end performances.

Tennessee should keep its options open for the short term in case the eighth-year veteran can't duplicate his 2019 showing. Like Winston, he is a prime candidate for the franchise tag. If not, anything over $27 million seems excessive because of his small sample with the team.

Tannehill helped Tennessee to the postseason, so he ranks a spot higher than Winston as the potential franchise-tag player more likely to strike a short-term deal.

Price Tag: $26-27 million

3. QB Drew Brees

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For a third consecutive season, Drew Brees led the league in completion percentage, but he struggled in the postseason, throwing for 208 yards, one touchdown and an interception in a loss to Minnesota. He also lost a crucial fumble deep in Vikings territory during the fourth quarter.

If you look past the completion percentages, Brees has been average in the postseason over the last three campaigns, throwing 10 touchdowns and six interceptions.

With that said, the Saints should welcome him back if he chooses to play another season. That's general manager Mickey Loomis' sentiment, per ESPN's Mike Triplett.

Head coach Sean Payton still believes in Brees' ability and the quarterback's desire to continue his playing career.

"I can't speak for Drew as to his wants," Payton told reporters. "I think he wants to play more, and I think, shoot, we saw him play at a high level."

All signs indicate Brees will either suit up for the Saints or retire, which eliminates outside competition from potential suitors. New Orleans already owes the signal-caller money because of previous restructured deals, per Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk:

"The restructuring of quarterback Drew Brees' contract, which reduces his 2019 cap number from $33.5 million to $22.7 million, pushes $10.8 million in cap dollars to 2020. ... Coupled with the cap dollars that already were on the books for 2020 ($10.5 million), Brees' cap number will be $21.3 million, whether he's on the team or not."

Brees hasn't talked about hometown discounts, but he's set up for financial compensation after retirement with the leftover dead money.

If he wants to play for the Saints and give the front office room to sign impact free agents or retain guys like guard Andrus Peat, linebacker A.J. Klein and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, he can sign a lucrative deal without taking up a ton of cap space.

With the increase in overall cap budget, $28-29 million seems like a reasonable number that would move Brees up to seventh among quarterbacks in annual salary. He should earn more than Winston and Tannehill because of his resume and track record of high-end production.

Price Tag: $28-29 million

2. QB Tom Brady

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Tom Brady's free-agent decision will dominate headlines similar to Peyton Manning's 2012 offseason before he chose to sign with the Denver Broncos.

Of course, Manning had a different circumstance, coming off multiple neck surgeries. The Indianapolis Colts moved on, releasing him to look toward the 2012 draft with the No. 1 overall pick, which became Andrew Luck.

Although Brady goes into the 2020 offseason as a free agent, he may re-sign with the Patriots, especially if the front office adds another wide receiver or pass-catching tight end to the roster.

According to WEEI's Ryan Hannable, the Patriots aren't likely to pay big money for Brady, which may become a significant factor in where he plays next season.

"If it's the most money and commitment in terms of years, it won't be in New England," Hannable wrote, adding: "The highest-paid quarterbacks made around and north of $30 million in 2019, and there's no question the Patriots would never do that."

As Brady goes into his age-43 term, any team interested in him should feel some uncertainty. Regardless of the focus on the weapons or lack thereof in New England, the three-time All-Pro recorded his lowest QBR (52.5) since the stat has been recorded starting in 2006.

Bucky Brooks of NFL.com delved deeper into Brady's 2019 numbers to highlight the signal-caller's decline, suggesting the Patriots should allow him to hit the open market.

Even with the warning signs around Brady, a team, if not the Patriots, will probably feel comfortable rolling the dice on the most accomplished quarterback in today's game on a short-term deal.

The Chargers, Colts and Buccaneers all rank in the top 12 in projected cap space for 2020. Those clubs don't have clear-cut starting quarterbacks for the upcoming season either. Rather than go with a rookie, teams may be drawn to Brady's experience, control at the line of scrimmage and understanding of the game, offering him approximately $30 million per year for at least the next two seasons.

Brady has the playoff success that elevates him above Brees. If a front-office executive feels his team is a quarterback away from a Super Bowl appearance, he's more likely to push his chips to the center of the table for the six-time champion.

Price Tag: $30-31 million

1. QB Dak Prescott

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Dak Prescott will be the biggest winner in free agency. He has three factors in his favor.

Teams can't use age against Prescott. He's 26 years old—still in his prime. Furthermore, based on his numbers, the two-time Pro Bowler just had his best season, throwing for 4,902 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 65.1 percent completion rate.

While we can argue Winston put together his most productive year in 2019, 30 interceptions are a huge blemish on the season. Prescott was far more efficient and recorded a higher QBR (71.2 to 57.1).

Finally, the Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones seem to be on board with signing him to a lucrative deal, per Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

"The Cowboys got close to signing Prescott last September to a deal that would pay him roughly $33 million annually," Hill wrote. "It will take at least that now to sign Prescott, but Jones didn't seem too bothered about the rising money in the quarterback market."

Jones spoke about his experience with a high-profile signal-caller from decades ago, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.

"It's always been expensive for quarterbacks. My first one was Troy Aikman, and I made him the highest-paid player in the NFL," he said.

Prescott's future seems clear. He's probably going to sign a long-term deal with the Cowboys and come close to Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson's $35 million annual salary.

Prescott doesn't have Wilson's accomplishments or his decision-making in and out of the pocket, but the quarterback market favors whoever is next for a new contract among above-average players in their prime.

Right now, it's Prescott's time to sign a major deal, which pushes him to the top of the quarterback market, and the Cowboys seem fine with that.

Price Tag: $34-35 million

Player contract details courtesy of Spotrac.