Biggest Gambles From the 2026 NFL Draft

"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em."

The NFL Draft is all about risk. Every pick is a gamble, but not all rolls of the dice were created equal. 

Here are the four "boldest strategies" from the 2026 draft.

Los Angeles Rams Pass on 2026 Contributor for Backup Quarterback

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Ty Simpson

In 2025, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams were targeted a combined 280 times. No other wide receiver on the Rams' roster received more than 25 targets, and the Rams haven't added any legitimate wideout talent in free agency. 

With the No. 13 pick, they had a chance to add an elite receiver prospect like USC product Makai Lemon or KC Concepcion from Texas A&M—guys who could have contributed early and provided some much-needed cover for the 33-year-old Adams, who has missed six games the last two seasons and is entering a contract year.

Alternatively, they could have created competition along the offensive line or on the edge. 

Instead, a Super Bowl contender featuring the reigning MVP at quarterback arguably reached for...a quarterback. 

Yes, Matthew Stafford is 38. But is Simpson so special that the Rams needed to use a rare top-half-of-Round-1 selection on him as their championship window is closing? The guy's college sample size is tiny and he struggled down the stretch at Alabama in his only season as a starter. 

Maybe the front office knows something about Stafford's future plans that we do not. Regardless, the 2027 draft appears as though it will be loaded with quarterback talent. This was an unnecessary gamble that undoubtedly hurts their chances in 2026 in order to give them some more options in 2027 and beyond. 

Arizona Cardinals Take a Running Back Third Overall

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Jeremiyah Love

This has very little to do with Jeremiyah Love's talent. The Notre Dame star does appear to be a special player, but the fact is the Cardinals could have used upgrades along the offensive line and on the edge but instead used a primo draft pick on a guy who plays one of the sport's least primo positions. 

Did the Cards really have the luxury to become the first team in eight years to use a top-three selection on a running back? This is a squad that lost 14 games last season. Only two teams recorded fewer sacks than Arizona in 2025, and on the other side of the ball the Cardinals entered the draft with a clear-cut hole at right tackle. 

Saquon Barkley became a success as a top-three pick in 2018, but not for the team that drafted him. Every other top-three back in the last 30 years—Trent Richardson, Reggie Bush and Ronnie Brown—has failed to become a star. Throw in the failures of top-five backs Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams in the last quarter-century and that dynamic is even more pronounced. 

Backs simply do not carry teams these days. In fact, not once this century has a team won the Super Bowl with a first-team All-Pro running back that it drafted, and only two of the league's six leading rushers from 2025 were first-round selections. 

The reality is the Cardinals likely would have been better off addressing a key need at a critical position early on, or dropping back and collecting more picks before bolstering the running back depth chart on Day 2. 

The way things are now, the pressure's on Love to essentially do what no other running back has done for a team that drafted him at the top of Round 1 in the 21st century. 

Philadelphia Eagles Swap A.J. Brown for a Rookie? 

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Makai Lemon

This gamble is still a work in progress, as A.J. Brown remains on Philadelphia's roster following the team's decision to trade up in Round 1 and select Makai Lemon 20th overall. 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported prior to the draft that the Eagles are "likely" to trade Brown to the New England Patriots on or after June 1, and it's no secret that there's been friction between Brown and the team for quite a while. 

That said, even if the Eagles keep Brown, this pick is a gamble in that they'd have something of an embarrassment of riches at one position while neglecting a pass rush that lost Jaelan Phillips and had a bottom-10 hurry rate in 2025. 

But if we assume Brown is a goner, the Eagles are still rolling the dice in a big way by committing a first-round pick and sacrificing two fourth-round picks to land Lemon, who lacks size and explosiveness and will face a massive amount of immediate pressure to replace a 28-year-old three-time Pro Bowler who has gone over 1,000 yards and scored at least seven touchdowns in each of his four seasons in Philadelphia. 

For a team deep in win-now mode, that's a leap of faith.  

Everything the Kansas City Chiefs Did in Round 1

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Mansoor Delane

The Chiefs certainly needed a cornerback, and they landed the highest-rated corner in this class when they drafted LSU product Mansoor Delane sixth overall. But they gave up picks in Rounds 3 and 5 in order to move up three spots for Delane, who very well could have issues related to his length, strength and long speed at the NFL level. 

The Chiefs could have stood pat and potentially still landed Delane. Worst case, they could have addressed a need with Spencer Fano or Rueben Bain Jr. in the No. 9 spot and then grabbed a cornerback like Colton Hood, Avieon Terrell or D'Angelo Ponds later on. 

The way things played out, Delane had better become a superstar quickly. 

And with their second pick in Round 1, the team doubled down on defense with Peter Woods out of Clemson, once again ignoring the offensive line, wide receiver and the edge. 

With wideout Omar Cooper and edge defender T.J. Parker still on the board, addressing a less immediate need with a player who lacks length, has some technique to develop and has limited pass-rushing prowess is yet another risk.