Packers vs. 49ers: Final Odds, Spread Picks for NFC Championship Game 2020

The San Francisco 49ers may not replicate their 29-point victory over the Green Bay Packers from Week 12 in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, but they could still dictate the pace and cover the 7.5-point spread.

After the 37-8 result at Levi's Stadium, the 49ers closed the regular season with five one-possession games. Kyle Shanahan's team reversed that trend by controlling the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round by a 17-point margin of victory.

The NFC's No. 1 seed could utilize similar elements of its game plan from that contest to achieve success against the NFC North champion.

NFC Championship Odds

Spread: San Francisco (-7.5)

Over/Under: 46.5

Moneyline: San Francisco (-360; bet $360 to win $100); Green Bay (+290; bet $100 to win $290)

Odds via Caesars.

Spread Pick

San Francisco (-7.5)

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

Some of San Francisco's largest margins of victory have occurred on home soil.

The 49ers have five double-digit wins at Levi's Stadium, including a 51-13 thumping of the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 and the blowout of the Packers in Week 12.

In those five contests, Sunday's home side allowed over 250 total yards on one occasion, and its defense is expected to be the difference-maker once again in the NFC Championship Game.

Nick Bosa and Co. have held three straight foes under 100 rushing yards at Levi's Stadium, and if replicates that Sunday, they could take away a key component of Green Bay's offense.

Since their Week 11 bye, the Packers have eclipsed 100 rushing yards in all but one game. Aaron Jones has a trio of 100-yard performances in that span.

Against the Vikings, the 49ers were constantly in the backfield putting pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins or taking down running back Dalvin Cook. If a similar onslaught occurs, the Packers may not have many opportunities to punch the ball into the end zone or set up Mason Crosby field goals.

Aaron Rodgers also has a bad history with top-ranked passing defenses, as he is 1-4 overall, with four touchdowns and four interceptions in those matchups, per NFL Research:

Rodgers' lowest passing-yard total of the campaign occurred in Week 12, when he mustered 104 yards while completing 20 of his 33 attempts.

The other key to San Francisco's potential defensive dominance is Richard Sherman, who should be tasked with silencing Davante Adams.

Adams was responsible for 160 of the 243 yards gained through the air in the divisional round. He had seven more targets and five more catches than the next-best pass-catcher, Jimmy Graham. By taking away Green Bay's top receiver, San Francisco could force short possessions and take control of the contest by bleeding the clock.

The 49ers ran 28 rushing plays through Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert to seal the 27-10 win over the Vikings. If they possess the ball for long amounts of time and finish off those drives with touchdowns, they should be in the driver's seat in the fourth quarter.

Even though some of Rodgers' numbers do not suggest the NFC North winner will remain competitive, he does have five postseason road victories. That experience should help Green Bay to capitalize on a few drives and keep the contest within two possessions.

But San Francisco's defensive containment and control through the rushing attack should be enough to put the game away and send the Niners to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.