Who Will Be the Next MLB Players to Sign $300M Contracts After Gerrit Cole?

Major League Baseball's $300 million contract club is rapidly expanding.

Giancarlo Stanton became the first player to sign a $300 million deal when the Miami Marlins extended him for $325 million over 13 years in 2014. He was all alone until 2019, when Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and, most recently, Gerrit Cole signed their own $300 million deals.

Which makes it fair to ask: Who might be next?

Based on their age, talent level and proximity to free agency, we've rounded up nine players who we think are candidates for a $300 million payday in the near future. We also slotted them into four categories: long shot, possible, probable and likely.

Naturally, we'll start with the long shots.

Long Shot: Kris Bryant

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Though he didn't match Manny Machado's $300 million pact with the San Diego Padres, Anthony Rendon came closer than expected when the 29-year-old inked a seven-year, $245 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

That ought to have Kris Bryant thinking big about what he might earn when free agency comes calling after 2021.

The Chicago Cubs third baseman has thus far been a significantly more productive player than Rendon through their respective age-27 seasons. To wit, Bryant has him beat in OPS (.901 to .812), home runs (138 to 78) and wins above replacement (25.1 to 16.8), according to Baseball Reference.

The catch here is that Bryant's best years took place between 2015 and 2017, when he collected Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in the process of racking up 19.6 WAR. He's since racked up only 5.5 WAR while dealing with injuries and other difficulties over the last two years.

Yet if he can recapture the mojo of his first three seasons between now and his age-29 season in 2021, he might have a path to $300 million by beating Rendon's deal in terms of both years and dollars. 

Long Shot: Javier Baez

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Speaking of Cubs superstars who have a shot at $300 million, let's talk about Javier Baez.

Like Bryant, Baez is also due for free agency after 2021. Baez, however, will have the advantage of being a year younger. He'll only be coming off his age-28 season when he hits the open market.

If Baez has one notable thing going against him, it's the volatility of his offensive approach. His pedestrian .310 career on-base percentage is firmly rooted in a free-swinging style that he's been either unable or unwilling to tone down throughout his six-year career.

Baez has nonetheless been an All-Star in each of the last two seasons, across which he's racked up an .865 OPS, 63 homers and 11.1 WAR. And while his 2019 season was weaker than his 2018 campaign, it did have one important development: He established himself as an elite defender at shortstop.

Because power and patience age better than most skills, Baez will need to make some progress with the latter over the next two seasons in order to maximize his free-agent stock. If he can, a nine- or even 10-year deal could be his ticket to a $300 million payday.

Possible: Noah Syndergaard

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At the outset of the 2019-20 offseason, David Price's seven-year, $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox was the high-water mark for starting pitchers.

Now it's $107 million higher because of Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million deal with the New York Yankees. This, apparently, is now the market value for upper-echelon aces who still have youth on their side. Cole is 29 and fresh off a walk year marked by a 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts over 212.1 innings.

Like Cole, New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard would be coming off his age-28 season when he reaches free agency after 2021. And through their respective age-26 seasons, Syndergaard bests Cole in ERA (3.31 to 3.50) and WAR (14.1 to 11.3).

Of course, Syndergaard will have to improve on the diminishing returns he's been experiencing lately. He had trouble staying healthy in 2017 and 2018, and he finished 2019 with a subpar 4.28 ERA.

Still, Cole was arguably in an even worse position when he was two years from free agency. He turned things around by unlocking the full potential of his high-octane arsenal. Starting with his MLB-best 97.7 mph fastball, Syndergaard has the tools to boost his earning power with a similar transformation.

Possible: Aaron Judge

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Elsewhere in New York, the Yankees might be tempted to lock up Aaron Judge in the not too distant future.

There's no hurry for now, as he isn't due for free agency until after 2022. The man himself might not think that now is the best time to sign an extension anyway. Over the last two years, his value has been dinged by injuries that have held him out of all but 214 games.

When Judge has played, however, he's put up a .920 OPS and 54 home runs. Taken in combination with the 27-year-old's spectacular 2017 campaign in which he had a 1.049 OPS and 52 homers, his last three seasons have been worth 18.9 WAR.

Though it's easiest to focus on just how hard the 6'7", 282-pounder can hit the ball, Judge's defense is no small part of his overall value. His 42 defensive runs saved rank second among right fielders since 2017.

Because Judge would be coming off his age-30 season in free agency, an extension is probably his only real hope of landing the kind of long-term deal he needs for a $300 million payout. But if he stays healthy and puts up another MVP-caliber year in 2020, the Yankees may indeed come running with an offer next winter.

Possible: Carlos Correa

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Admittedly, Carlos Correa doesn't look much like a $300 million player at the moment.

He was once the subject of immense hype by way of being the Houston Astros' No. 1 pick in 2012 and the American League Rookie of the Year just three years later. However, he took a step back in his sophomore season in 2016, and injuries have limited him to 294 games over the last three seasons.

Yet despite the alleged disappointment of his '16 season, Correa still topped 6.0 WAR and did it again the following season. He also boasts a rock-solid .845 OPS and 102 home runs despite his issues, and he's teased even higher offensive potential with OPSes north of .900 in 2017 and 2019.

If Correa can realize his extraordinary potential over the next two seasons, he would enter the open market with talent and youth very much in his favor. He's only 25 now, and he'll be off his age-26 season when free agency calls his number after 2021.

If all does indeed go well between now and then, Correa will likely have Manny Machado's 10-year, $300 million deal in his sights.

Probable: Christian Yelich

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If nothing else, it's beyond dispute that Christian Yelich should be a $300 million player.

He was more of a good-not-great player when the Milwaukee Brewers acquired him from the Miami Marlins in 2018, but even "great" doesn't adequately describe what he's become since then. Over the last two years, he's collected an MVP and accumulated a 1.046 OPS, 80 home runs and a National League-best 14.7 WAR.

Yelich has, of course, been especially torrid since the 2018 All-Star break. He's hit .342/.436/.705 with 69 long balls over just 195 games.

Trouble is, Yelich is already 28 and still serving out the seven-year, $49.6 million contract he signed with the Marlins in 2015. It's guaranteed through 2021, with a $15 million option for his age-30 season in 2022. 

But if ever there was a candidate for a $300 million contract extension, it's Yelich. The Brewers should want to keep him in Milwaukee for the foreseeable future, and the cleanliness of their long-term books should give them a window to get something done either this spring or next winter.

Probable: Cody Bellinger

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Just as he beat Christian Yelich to the NL MVP in 2019, Cody Bellinger might also beat him to a $300 million deal.

Bellinger debuted with a rookie season for the ages in 2017, in which he won the Rookie of the Year on the strength of a .933 OPS and 39 home runs. Following a step back in 2018, he promptly morphed into the National League's best player in 2019.

Bellinger finished the year with a 1.035 OPS and 47 home runs, which—when coupled with his superb defense—resulted in 9.0 WAR. Given that he's still only 24 years old, he seems all but assured to further entrench himself as an elite talent in coming seasons.

Though Bellinger could probably score a $300 million contract in free agency after 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers could potentially extend him before then. As it is, he's already set to start burning a hole in their wallet with an $11.6 million salary projection in the first of his four years of arbitration-eligibility.

Rather than simply go year-to-year with him, the Dodgers might see some sense in locking him down for the long haul at consistent rates.

Likely: Francisco Lindor

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More so than Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Noah Syndergaard or Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor will likely have a $300 million deal awaiting him in free agency after 2021.

Though it was Correa who took home the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2015, Lindor made a spirited run at it and generally announced his presence as a do-it-all shortstop worth watching. Sure enough, the 28.6 WAR he's compiled since 2015 easily tops all of his fellow shortstops.

The Cleveland Indians star's slick defense has won him Gold Gloves in two of the last four seasons. His offense, meanwhile, has matured to a point where he's averaged an .856 OPS, 34 homers and 21 stolen bases since 2017.

Because he's 25 now and due to enter free agency off his age-27 season, Lindor won't be an exact approximation of Manny Machado when he enters the open market. Though Machado was also a superstar shortstop when he entered the 2018-19 market, he was only coming off his age-25 season.

Yet that might not matter. Even if Lindor can't match Machado's 10-year deal, he might shoot for $300 million by way of a longer version of Anthony Rendon's contract.

Likely: Mookie Betts

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We come at last to Mookie Betts, who stands to have next winter's free-agent market pretty well cornered.

Once upon a time, Betts was a fifth-round draft pick who didn't hit a single home run in his first full season of professional ball in 2012. But he built himself into a top prospect by 2014, and he's consistently been one of baseball's very best players since 2015.

Only Mike Trout has done better than Betts' 39.7 WAR since 2015. Betts has come by that number due to strong production in all phases of the game. He's a career .301/.374/.519 hitter with 139 homers and 126 steals, as well as 102 defensive runs saved just in right field.

Assuming he doesn't suddenly reverse course and sign an extension with the Boston Red Sox between now and then, Betts will be coming off his age-27 season when he enters the open market next winter. He'll likely be on the lookout for at least a nine-year deal worth at least $35 million per year.

In other words, $300 million will likely be the low end of what he's looking for.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Payroll data courtesy of Roster Resource. Salary arbitration projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.