The Most Overpaid and Underpaid Player on Every MLB Team

If Major League Baseball salaries weren't a matter of public record, we'd have no idea which players are worth what they're being paid.

In reality, they are and we kinda-sorta do. So with the 2020 season in the not-too-distant future, we've taken a fresh look at the most overpaid and underpaid players on each team by considering:

• With help from Roster Resource and MLB Trade Rumors, only active players who are under contract or eligible for arbitration.
• This means we excluded pre-arbitration players, who are only entitled to the league minimum and therefore massively underpaid by default.
• Steamer projections for wins above replacement.

By dividing players' 2020 salaries by their projected WAR, we got basic cost-per-WAR estimates to use as reference points. Rather than blindly follow these numbers, however, we also allowed ourselves to subjectively narrow our focus to players who have some degree of relevance for 2020.

Because MLB's financial structure overwhelmingly favors owners over players, it was much easier to identify underpaid players than overpaid players. Even among the 30 players we did single out as being overpaid, only a small handful of them are truly egregious examples.

We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.

American League East

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Baltimore Orioles: Chris Davis (Minus-$46M per WAR) and Hanser Alberto ($1.4M per WAR)

Chris Davis is heading into year five of a seven-year contract that pays out $23 million per season. Given that he's been worth an MLB-low minus-3.7 rWAR (the "r" denotes the Baseball Reference version) since 2017, the Baltimore Orioles have little reason to expect a better return on their investment in 2020.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles figure to get the best bang for their buck out of Trey Mancini and Hanser Alberto. We gave the nod to Alberto because he was basically as good as Mancini in 2019, yet he projects to be $3.8 million cheaper in 2020.

Boston Red Sox: David Price ($12.3M) and Christian Vazquez ($1.6M)

Rather than kick Dustin Pedroia while he's down after not playing at all in 2019, we figured it was fairer to cast doubt on David Price. His seven-year, $217 million contract hasn't been a total disaster. But after posting a pedestrian 4.28 ERA in just 22 starts last season, it's doubtful that he'll do better in 2020, his age-34 season.

Christian Vazquez, meanwhile, is an outstanding defensive catcher who's fresh off a 23-homer breakout. He should be worth his $4.2 million salary and a whole lot more in 2020.

New York Yankees: J.A. Happ ($18.9M) and Aaron Judge ($1.2M)

Following his strong finish to the 2018 season, the New York Yankees promptly re-signed J.A. Happ to a two-year, $34 million deal. But he flopped hard with a 4.91 ERA in 2019, and now he's heading into 2020 as a 37-year-old whose rotation spot isn't entirely secure.

For his part, Aaron Judge must be hoping for better health in 2020 after battling injuries in each of the last two seasons. Even still, a $6.4 million salary is pennies for a guy who's posted a .973 OPS and 106 homers while also playing superb defense over the last three years.

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Kiermaier ($4.2M) and Tyler Glasnow ($0.6M)

An overpaid player on the Tampa Bay Rays? Yeah right. But if somebody must wear the label, we'll go with Kevin Kiermaier, who's going into the fourth year of a six-year, $53.5 million contract. Though the Rays should get stellar defense from him in 2020, his health and offensive production are harder to count on.

Pretty much everyone else on the Rays is underpaid, but perhaps nobody more so than Tyler Glasnow. He was potentially the best pitcher in baseball when he was healthy last year. Any more of that, and he'll be a mega-steal at $1.9 million.

Toronto Blue Jays: Chase Anderson ($12.1M) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($2.1M)

The Toronto Blue Jays wouldn't have traded for Chase Anderson if they had doubts about his $8.5 million salary for 2020. But apart from 2017, in which he had a 2.74 ERA, he's been basically a league-average hurler during his six-year career. The move from the NL to the AL could well make him below average.

While the Blue Jays are loaded with talented young hitters, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the only one with an actual contract at the moment. If he carries his breakout performance (e.g., an .869 OPS and 20 homers in only 80 games) from 2019 over to 2020, he'll be worth far more than $2.9 million.

American League Central

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Chicago White Sox: Alex Colome ($34.3M per WAR) and Eloy Jimenez ($0.9M per WAR)

We generally didn't want to pick on relief pitchers, but Alex Colome was worth making an exception for. His $10.3 million salary projection currently makes him one of the 15 highest-paid relievers in baseball for 2020. Despite his 89 saves, that's a bit much for a guy who's tied for 56th among relievers in rWAR since 2017.

If he hadn't signed a six-year, $43 million contract last March, Eloy Jimenez would be pre-arbitration-eligible right now. But he did, and now he's due to earn a minuscule $2.3 million after breaking through with an .828 OPS and 31 home runs as a rookie in 2019.

Cleveland Indians: Brad Hand ($10.8M) and Mike Clevinger ($1.1M)

The Cleveland Indians' ongoing mission to purge high-priced players left us few options for their most overpaid player. But after falling apart with a 6.65 ERA in his final 25 appearances of 2019, we're skeptical that closer Brad Hand will be worth even his modest $7.6 million salary for 2020.

On the other hand, the Indians have plenty of potentially underpaid players. None gravitates toward the distinction quite like Mike Clevinger, who's due to earn $4.5 million in 2020. Despite some health woes, he's quietly been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last three seasons.

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera ($42.9M) and Daniel Norris ($1.8M)

Miguel Cabrera was pushing 31 years old, coming off core muscle surgery and still two years from free agency when the Detroit Tigers signed him to a 10-year, $292 million deal in 2014. It was a risk they didn't have to take, and it's predictably turned bad as Cabrera has devolved into a bat-only player who can't hit. To wit, he's coming off a .744 OPS and only 12 homers in 2019.

On the bright side, the Tigers have some good things going for them on the mound. One is Daniel Norris, who's due to earn $2.9 million after finding his footing down the stretch of 2019 with a 3.19 ERA in 13 starts as a sort of opener extraordinaire.

Kansas City Royals: Ian Kennedy ($55M) and Whit Merrifield ($2.5M)

After winning the World Series in 2015, the Kansas City Royals made the baffling decision to ink Ian Kennedy to a five-year, $70 million contract. He was a below-average starter at the time, and he's now heading into the final year of his pact as a good-not-great closer with a $16.5 million price tag.

Whit Merrifield, meanwhile, is guaranteed a total of $16.3 million in his four-year contract. He's hit .303 with 28 homers, 65 stolen bases plus versatile defense over the last two years. Any more of that, and he'll make a mockery of his $5 million salary in 2020.

Minnesota Twins: Marwin Gonzalez ($6.9M) and Jorge Polanco ($1.4M)

The Minnesota Twins' payroll is so evenly distributed that we once again find ourselves grasping at straws. Marwin Gonzalez was the least bad choice as their most overpaid player, as his $9 million salary will only be money kinda-sorta well spent if he turns in another season of 1-ish rWAR.

If this is the year that Byron Buxton finally puts it all together, he'll be worth his $2.9 million salary 10 times over. But since that's an iffy proposition, we'll grant that Jorge Polanco is worth far more than $3.8 million after going off for 5.7 rWAR in 2019.

American League West

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Houston Astros: Josh Reddick ($16.3M per WAR) and Carlos Correa ($1.3M per WAR)

The first season of Josh Reddick's four-year, $52 million contract with the Houston Astros went swimmingly, as he posted an .847 OPS and 4.1 rWAR en route to winning a World Series ring in 2017. He's been worth 2.9 WAR since then, however, and there's a chance he'll become a $13 million reserve in 2020.

Above all, Carlos Correa will be looking to stay healthy for the first time since 2016 in the coming season. Between his age (25) and stellar track record—which includes an .845 career OPS and two 6-rWAR seasons—we believe he will and that he'll easily outplay his $7.4 million salary.

Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols (Minus-$290M) and Andrew Heaney ($1.8M)

For what it's worth, Albert Pujols' 10-year, $240 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels could have gone worse through its first five seasons. Yet it truly has gone rotten over the last three, in which he's put up a .700 OPS and minus-0.9 rWAR. Barring a turnaround for the ages, he'll be a $29 million dud in 2020.

Even with a $37.8 million salary for 2020, Mike Trout is still arguably the Angels' most underpaid player. But at just $5 million, Andrew Heaney will have a more practical claim to the title if he recaptures the form of a 2018 campaign that was marked by a solid 4.15 ERA over 180 innings.

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis ($11.2M) and Chris Bassitt ($1.3M)

There is perhaps no greater bounceback candidate for 2020 than Khris Davis, who rode three consecutive 40-homer seasons to two-year, $33.5 million extension last April. But for the moment, the A's can't be feeling too good about paying $16.8 million to a power-only hitter who struggled with a .679 OPS in 2019.

The A's should otherwise thrive on low-cost stars and role players in 2020. Among the latter, Chris Bassitt was decidedly underappreciated in posting a 3.81 ERA over 144 innings last season. He's in a position to that all over again in 2020 on only a $2.8 million salary.

Seattle Mariners: Dee Gordon ($15.3M) and Mitch Haniger ($1.3M)

After his less-than-inspiring rookie season, the Seattle Mariners might have some buyer's remorse over Yusei Kikuchi's three-year, $43 million contract. But at least it beats that of Dee Gordon, who's going to pull in $13.8 million in 2020 after posting a grand total of 1.1 rWAR over the last two years.

Mitch Haniger did better than that (1.4 rWAR) in 2019 alone despite playing in only 63 games all season. Health permitting, he can make good on his $3 million salary for 2020 by rediscovering the form that made him an All-Star and ultimately led to 6.1 WAR in 2018.

Texas Rangers: Shin-Soo Choo ($30M) and Joey Gallo ($1.3M)

Shin-Soo Choo has posed a decent .794 OPS for the Texas Rangers since they signed him to a seven-year, $130 million contract in 2013. But at no point has he hit like a true star, and he's now slated to be devoid of defensive value as the Rangers' designated hitter in 2020.

At least the Rangers have Joey Gallo. Though he continued to strike out a lot, he nonetheless put up a .945 OPS, 22 homers and 3.0 rWAR in only 70 games last season. With better health in 2020, he'll provide value far beyond the $4 million he's slated to earn.

National League East

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Atlanta Braves: Mark Melancon ($23.3M per WAR) and Ronald Acuna Jr. ($0.2M per WAR)

The Atlanta Braves took on the remainder of Mark Melancon's four-year, $62 million contract when they acquired him from the San Francisco Giants last summer. He's still a capable reliever, but neither his 3.70 ERA nor his 1.1 rWAR through the first three years of his deal inspires confidence he'll live up to being baseball's sixth-most expensive reliever in 2020.

Ronald Acuna Jr. made jaws drop when he agreed to an eight-year, $100 million extension in April. Because he's 22 and already firmly established as one of MLB's top outfielders with 9.6 rWAR over the last two seasons, he should probably get used to people calling him underpaid.

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson ($8.0M) and Miguel Rojas ($2.8M)

The Miami Marlins are positioned to have the lowest payroll in MLB this season, so we don't feel good about calling any of their guys overpaid. But Corey Dickerson, who just signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract, might be if his health (he played in only 78 games in 2019) or defense betray him again. 

Speaking of defense, Miguel Rojas quietly ranked among MLB's best at shortstop by posting 12 defensive runs saved in 2019. Even if his offense remains below-average, defense like that at a premium position is worth more than a measly $4.8 million.

New York Mets: Jed Lowrie ($57.5M) and Noah Syndergaard ($2.4M)

Between Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz, the New York Mets are carrying more high-cost, low-value players than they presumably care to. But for 2020, we're least confident in Jed Lowrie. He missed all but nine games in the first year of a two-year, $20 million contract in 2019. Because he's 35 and only slated for a bench role, he faces a long climb out of that hole.

On the flip side, the Mets should be bullish about Noah Syndergaard's odds of outplaying his $9.9 million projected salary. He was oddly mediocre in posting a 4.28 ERA in 2019, yet his stuff remained electric, and he was seemingly plagued by bad luck.

Philadelphia Phillies: Odubel Herrera ($24.5M) and Aaron Nola ($2.3M)

The Philadelphia Phillies may think they have little to lose by paying Odubell Herrera $7.4 million in 2020, even after he was suspended for 85 games in 2019 for violating MLB's domestic violence policy. But based on his minus-0.3 rWAR since 2018 and his apparent status as a backup, they seemingly have little to gain.

With an $8.5 million salary, Aaron Nola will out-earn Herrera by a little more than $1 million in 2020. That's a steal even if Nola so much as repeats his merely good 2019 season. It would be an outright mega-steal if he dials his clock back to a 2018 campaign in which he led all pitchers with 10.5 rWAR.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg ($7.3M) and Trea Turner ($1.8M)

The Washington Nationals are committed to paying aces Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin a total of $595 million. If one of them must be doubted, we'll side with Strasburg. The Nats paid market value on his $245 million contract, yet his history of injuries and not-quite-great production allow for some skepticism as to whether he'll live up to being MLB's second-priciest pitcher.

At least until Juan Soto finds the big bucks, Trea Turner looks like Washington's most underpaid player. Specifically, the Nats must be excited about his offensive upside after he posted an .850 OPS with 19 homers and 35 steals in 2019. More of that would more than justify his $7.5 million projected salary.

National League Central

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Chicago Cubs: Craig Kimbrel ($20M per WAR) and Javier Baez ($2.9M per WAR)

The Chicago Cubs took a necessary gamble when they signed Craig Kimbrel for $43 million over three years last June. But he couldn't stay healthy and never really got on track in posting a 6.53 ERA over 23 appearances. Altogether, it's not a great sign that he boasts a 5.53 ERA since the 2018 All-Star break.

It will be up to the Cubs' core of young hitters to carry them in 2020. Javier Baez has been the best of the bunch in posting 11.1 rWAR over the last two seasons, so he should have no trouble earning his modest $9.3 million projected salary for this season.

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto ($13.2M) and Eugenio Suarez ($3.4M)

The Cincinnati Reds' 10-year, $225 million pact with Joey Votto has generally been money well spent. But as it gets closer to the end of the line in 2023, Votto's prime is naturally fading into memory. He was finally a below-average hitter in posting a .768 OPS and 15 homers in 2019. Better things may not be in store for his age-36 season in 2020.

With respect to underrated right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, we have to tab Eugenio Suarez as Votto's counterpart on the Reds. Even if he steps back from last year's .930 OPS and 49 homers in 2019, he should still easily earn his $9.5 million salary as part of his seven-year, $66 million contract.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun ($16.4M) and Christian Yelich ($2.2M)

The five-year, $105 million contract Ryan Braun signed with the Milwaukee Brewers back in 2011 was actually his second extension with the team. It didn't kick in until 2016, and it's unsurprisingly now paying for his decline years. He's failed to reach even 2 rWAR in each of the last three seasons.

As for Christian Yelich, well, he's put up 14.7 rWAR over the last two seasons, and he's riding an unparalleled high with a .342/.436/.705 slash line and 69 homers over his last 195 games. And he still has two seasons left on his seven-year, $49.5 million deal.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Chris Archer ($3M) and Joe Musgrove ($1.2M)

Setting aside Felipe Vazquez, who, in addition to other potential legal repercussions, could either receive a lengthy suspension or have his $22 million contract voided after sex-crime allegations, it's a toss-up between Chris Archer and Gregory Polanco as the Pittsburgh Pirates' most overpaid player. In the wake of his bum shoulder and rapidly diminishing returns, we're less sure of Archer's $9 million salary than Polanco's $8.6 million salary.

It's a good thing the Pirates have Joe Musgrove to pick up slack in their rotation. He isn't a great pitcher, but another season with a 4.44 ERA over 170.1 innings would be worth his $3.4 million projected salary and then some.

St. Louis Cardinals: Dexter Fowler ($18.3M) and Paul DeJong ($0.5M)

There's a case for Brett Cecil, who hasn't come close to living up to his $30.5 million contract, to be deemed the St. Louis Cardinals' most overpaid player. Yet they're spending much more on Dexter Fowler, whose five-year, $82.5 million deal has thus far yielded only 1.9 rWAR through three seasons.

Paul DeJong was coming off a surprise breakout in 2017 when the Cardinals inked him to a six-year, $26 million contract in 2016. Though his star has faded since then, he's carried on as a productive shortstop because of his superb defense and 30-homer power.

National League West

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Arizona Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb ($5M per WAR) and Ketel Marte ($1.1M per WAR) 

Zack Greinke is gone from the Arizona Diamondbacks' books, and the Mariners are picking up 60 percent of Mike Leake's $15 million salary. That leaves us few options, but Jake Lamb stood out despite his modest $5 million salary projection. He mustered only 1.6 rWAR even when he was an All-Star in 2017, and injuries and ineffectiveness have limited him to just 0.5 rWAR over the last two years.

Elsewhere, Ketel Marte will earn only $4.4 million in the third year of a five-year, $24 million contract. That's a mere fraction of what he was worth as he went off for a .981 OPS, 32 homers and 6.9 rWAR in 2019.

Colorado Rockies: Ian Desmond (Minus-$150M) and German Marquez ($1.3M)

The Colorado Rockies raised plenty of skeptical eyebrows when they signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million contract in 2016. He has utterly failed to silence his naysayers in three years with the club, as he's neither hit nor fielded well in racking up minus-3.4 rWAR.

The Rockies are faring a lot better with German Marquez, who's about to embark on the second season of a five-year, $43 million deal. In posting a total of 11.5 rWAR, he's quietly been one of the National League's top pitchers since 2017.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenley Jansen ($31.3M) and Cody Bellinger ($2.2M)

When the Los Angeles Dodgers re-signed Kenley Jansen on a five-year, $80 million contract in 2017, they were bringing back one of the very best relievers in baseball. But following a typically stupendous season in '17, he's hit a wall with a 3.34 ERA and 0.7 rWAR over the last two years.

The Dodgers otherwise have a decidedly low-risk roster, but they must have especially few qualms about Cody Bellinger's projected payday of $11.6 million. That's a huge bargain for a guy who led MLB with 9.0 rWAR and also put up a 1.035 OPS and 47 homers en route to winning NL MVP in 2019.

San Diego Padres: Wil Myers ($112.5M) and Austin Hedges ($2.2M)

Wil Myers has failed to build on his 2016 breakout since inking a six-year, $83 million deal in 2017, to the point that he played his way out of a job in posting minus-0.3 rWAR in 2019. And his big money is only now kicking in, as he's going from a $5.5 million salary in 2019 to $22.5 million payouts through 2022.

As evidenced by his .617 career OPS, Austin Hedges isn't much of a hitter. According to Baseball Prospectus' metrics, however, there isn't a better defensive catcher anywhere else in MLB. That makes him a heck of a steal at a projected salary of $2.9 million.

San Francisco Giants: Zack Cozart ($25.3M) and Alex Dickerson ($1.2M)

The San Francisco Giants' payroll is littered with older, high-priced players whose primes are very much behind them. That makes it all the more baffling that they agreed to take on all of Zack Cozart's $12.7 million salary for 2020 when they acquired him from the Angels in December. He's been worth minus-0.7 rWAR over the last two years, and he's now set to ride the bench in San Francisco.

The Giants don't have much in the way of underpaid players. But if he builds on the .880 OPS he posted in 56 games down the stretch of the 2019 season, Alex Dickerson will be a steal on just a $925,000 salary.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus. Additional payroll/salary data courtesy of Spotrac.