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Week 15 NFL Picks: Predictions for Sunday's Games, Odds Guide and Over-Under Tip

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBANational NBA Featured ColumnistDecember 14, 2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady stands on the sideline in the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
Elise Amendola/Associated Press

If oddsmakers hoped to scare off Baltimore Ravens backers with a huge point spread Thursday night, they didn't set the bar high enough.

The Ravens hovered around being a two-score favorite for most of the week, and they thumped the New York Jets by a worse-than-it-sounds 42-21 margin, setting a slew of franchise and NFL records in the process.

Given the groove they've been in with Lamar Jackson at the helm, this was easy money for anyone who sensed a buying opportunity on Baltimore's end.

We're hopefully here to point you toward more money with a breakdown of the latest lines from Caesars Sportsbook and a closer examination of three over-under totals worth your wager.

                

Week 15 NFL Odds, Predictions

New England Patriots (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | O/U 41.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Detroit Lions | O/U 46.0

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) | O/U 41.0

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.0) | O/U 51.5

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0) | O/U 45.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.0) | O/U 46.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington Redskins | O/U 39.0

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers | O/U 48.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5) | O/U 46.5

Cleveland Browns (-3.0) at Arizona Cardinals | O/U 49.5

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers | O/U 45.0

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys | O/U 48.5

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11.0) | O/U 48.0

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) | O/U 37.0

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-9.0) | O/U 46.0

                 

Week 15 NFL Over-Under Tips

Take the Under in New England-Cincinnati

The Patriots have the NFL's best defense by average yards (264.8) and points (12.9) against. They also haven't quite been themselves their last two games, as they've struggled to contain Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.

Which of those things matters most against the Bengals: the season-long dominance or the recent slip-ups against elite quarterbacks?

It's the former, and it's not close. Allowing 51 total points over two weeks against Watson and Mahomes is hardly a bad number. If anything, the fact that we're mentioning it just shows how absurdly high the standards are for Bill Belichick's stoppers.

The Pats have more than enough to pester Andy Dalton and a Cincinnati offense averaging the second-fewest points in the league (15.2). While Tom Brady could light up the Bengals defense, the Pats haven't scored more than 22 points since Week 8. Even if New England zips past that number, Cincy isn't doing enough the other way to push the total tally north of 41.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Bengals 10

                

Play the Over in Philadelphia-Washington

Redskins rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins has an unsightly 61.2 quarterback rating. Browns signal-caller Baker Mayfield occupies the category's bottom spot among qualified passers at 77.6.

Oddsmakers seem to be acutely aware of Haskins' inefficiency and presumably placed a lot of stock into it when setting only a 39-point over-under.

But that number doesn't account for the Redskins' recent play on offense.

Over their last four games, they've averaged 20 points. That's by no means a big number, but it's more than half of 39, and it's worlds better than the 8.8 they averaged in their prior four contests. Adrian Peterson keeps plugging away, and Terry McLaurin is a dynamic receiver. The loss of running back Derrius Guice stings, but at least Chris Thompson is playing again.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have totaled 54 points over their past two games. Carson Wentz has five touchdown passes against a single interception in that stretch, and he threw for five scores and three picks over the five games prior. Alshon Jeffery's absence is a bummer, but Zach Ertz is heating up, and running back Boston Scott adds a new wrinkle to this offense.

This probably isn't a game we'd recommend casual fans to watch, but the final score should land above 40.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 20

                     

Hammer the Over in Jacksonville-Oakland

A 46.5-point total is by no means disrespectful to these offenses.

Neither topped 21 points last week, nor in the two games before it. Each quarterback, Gardner Minshew II and Derek Carr, has a single three-touchdown performance on his season tally.

All of that said, this total still feels respectfulproblematically soto these two defenses.

Over their last three games, the Raiders have allowed 116 points. The Jaguars have surrendered 115 in that same stretch. Combined, that's an average of 77 per game. Oakland played the New York Jets in that stretch; Jacksonville faced Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Chargers. In other words, this elite production hasn't exactly come from elite offenses.

It doesn't show every week, but the Jags and Raiders have enough playmakers to put up points against bad defenses. The scoreboard should prepare for a busy day.

Prediction: Raiders 30, Jaguars 23