NFL Week 14 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistDecember 4, 2019

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and teammate Sammy Watkins (14) celebrate a first quarter touchdown against the Oakland Raiders during an NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots are expected by many, including the oddsmakers, to replicate their high-scoring regular-season affair from 2018. 

Sunday's clash at Gillette Stadium has been assigned the largest over/under number of Week 14, and there is a good chance you could cash in on the over. 

As of Wednesday afternoon, all of the Week 14 totals were in the 40s, which is rare for an NFL weekend that typically has a number or two in the 30s or 50s. 

The other high-profile AFC game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills may trend in the other direction due to the potential of blustery conditions in upstate New York. 

                       

Game-by-Game Over/Under Guide

Odds via Caesars; all times ET

      

Dallas at Chicago (Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) 

Over/Under: 42.5 

Pick: Under 

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

In the last two weeks, Dallas' offensive production dried up versus two AFC East sides likely bound for the postseason. Before totaling 24 points against New England and Buffalo, the Cowboys produced six consecutive games over 20 points. 

Since Chicago's Week 6 bye, it eclipsed the 20-point mark on three occasions, including the Thanksgiving Day win over Detroit in which the over hit. In six home games, the Bears have allowed an average of 16 points, and if you take out New Orleans' 36 points from Week 6, that number drops to 12 points allowed per game. 

Matt Nagy's team has held four opponents under 100 rushing yards at Soldier Field, and Ezekiel Elliott has not hit triple digits in his last two road trips. 

All of those numbers suggest the under is the play for two teams clinging on to postseason hopes. 

                

Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

Over/Under: 47.5

Pick: Over 

CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 17: Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers straight-arms Deion Jones #45 of the Atlanta Falcons during a run during a game between Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 17, 2019 in
Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The low point of Carolina's free fall came in Week 11 in a 29-3 loss to Atlanta in which Kyle Allen threw four interceptions. In the two games since, Allen has improved with 534 passing yards, five touchdowns and a single pick versus New Orleans and Washington. 

In the same stretch, Christian McCaffrey's rushing totals decreased, as he has gone three games without a 100-yard ground performance. The Most Valuable Player candidate found the end zone twice in the last three games and was shut out from scoring by Atlanta at Bank of America Stadium. 

Despite those concerns, the over may be the play given how much both defenses have conceded. Carolina allowed 92 points in the last three games, and Atlanta gave up 61 in the last two. 

                

Baltimore at Buffalo (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 43.5

Pick: Under 

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Baltimore's string of five straight 30-point outings was snapped by San Francisco in Week 13, a game played in adverse conditions. 

Weather could be an issue at New Era Field Sunday, as winds of 16 miles per hour are expected, per Weather.com. If that takes away Baltimore and Buffalo's passing threat, the respective rushing attacks will be asked to carry the offensive load. 

The Ravens rank sixth in run defense while the Bills are 14th, and both teams have allowed 11 rushing scores. Each defense has allowed one 20-point performance since the start of November. 

Even if Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen break out for long gains, they might not be able to reach the end zone, and with the wind whipping, field goals are not guaranteed to go in. 

             

Cincinnati at Cleveland (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 40.5

Pick: Over 

CINCINNATI, OHIO - DECEMBER 01:  Andy Dalton #14 of the Cincinnati Bengals before the game against the New York Jets at Paul Brown Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

In their first win of the season, the Cincinnati Bengals eclipsed 20 points for the first time since Week 5. 

In four AFC North contests, Zac Taylor's team averaged 10.8 points per game, while Cleveland's divisional scoring average is 24.7, a number boosted by the 40-point outburst versus Baltimore in Week 4. 

The Browns and Bengals totaled 99 points in their 2018 meetings, both of which occurred late in the season, just like this season's affairs. If you applied Sunday's over/under to their recent clashes, the over would have hit three straight times. They also combined for 38 points in their first contest of 2017. 

Additionally, Cleveland racked up 109 points in its last four home games and Cincinnati was gashed for at least 20 points in five of its six road trips. 

                

Washington at Green Bay (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox)

Over/Under: 42

Pick: Over 

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - DECEMBER 01: Derrius Guice #29 of the Washington Redskins stiff arms Shaq Thompson #54 of the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Charlotte, North Car
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

With Dwayne Haskins at quarterback and Derrius Guice healthy, Washington has reeled off wins over Detroit and Carolina. Guice was the star in Week 13, as he ran for 129 yards and two scores on 10 carries, while Haskins went 13-of-25 with 147 passing yards. 

The primary concern going into Lambeau Field is if the Redskins can consistently score on their travels. Before putting up 29 points on Carolina, Washington had three single-digit outputs in a four-game span on the road. 

The Green Bay Packers held three of their six home foes to 16 points, but they have also allowed 24 to Oakland and 34 to Philadelphia. 

Since Washington displayed offensive improvements, it should contribute to the over along with a Packers offense that has scored at least 21 points in every home contest. 

               

Detroit at Minnesota (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

Over/Under: 43.5 

Pick: Over 

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Minnesota struggled in the final stages of its loss to Seattle without Dalvin Cook. Fortunately, the running back said after the defeat that he will be ready to go for the final regular-season stretch, per Vikings.com's Lindsey Young

"I'm good. Part of the game," Cook said. "It's a physical sport, and that's what comes with it. I just had to fight through it. I'll be good, though."

That is a positive development for over bettors, as Cook has a rushing touchdown in every game at U.S. Bank Stadium. 

Mike Zimmer's team averages 29.2 points per game at home, and all of those contests have come against teams currently outside of playoff positions. 

Detroit (3-8-1) has allowed the fourth-most yards in the NFL and conceded over 20 points in five of its six road trips. 

                

San Francisco at New Orleans (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

Over/Under: 44.5 

Pick: Over

Bill Feig/Associated Press

San Francisco enters Week 14 with a top defense that has allowed 3,011 yards over 12 games. 

However, the 49ers conceded over 20 points to four of their last five opponents, including 27 to Seattle and 20 to Baltimore. That trend could continue versus a New Orleans side with a quartet of 30-point outings inside the Superdome. 

The Saints average 411.8 yards per game at home, while the 49ers allow 260.3 per road contest. 

If the game trends in the Saints' favor, like most of their home affairs, the over will end up as the better play. 

               

Miami at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 45 

Pick: Over 

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The first meeting between Miami and the New York Jets produced 44 points. 

In the last three weeks, the Dolphins increased their production from 20 points versus Buffalo in Week 11 to 37 in a Week 13 win over Philadelphia. Before falling flat against Cincinnati on Sunday, the Jets recorded 34 points in each of their previous three clashes. 

Sam Darnold could be in for a bounce-back performance against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and third-most total yards in the NFL. 

The Jets have conceded the fewest rushing yards of any defense, but they allowed 316 total yards in Week 9 to Miami. 

Even if Adam Gase's team shuts down the Miami rushing attack, it could still be gashed by Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is one of the reasons we lean toward the over. 

                     

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 47

Pick: Under 

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 01: Devin White #45 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates after intercepting Nick Foles #7 of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first quarter of a football game at TIAA Bank Field on December 01, 2019 in Jacksonville, Flori
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Tampa Bay has given up the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, while Indianapolis is known for its ground-and-pound offense. 

With two strengths colliding with each other, the under is in play for Sunday's game at Raymond James Stadium. 

In his last three home games, Jameis Winston has thrown 11 interceptions and four touchdown passes. That stat alone could scare you away from the over. 

Frank Reich's team has produced eight turnovers in the last five games, but it has a single performance over 25 points in that stretch. 

The combination of Winston's turnover issues, the Colts' lack of 20-point outings and a high total make the under an easy wager.  

                 

Denver at Houston (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 41.5 

Pick: Over 

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Drew Lock could lead to the over hitting Sunday afternoon.

For his second start, the rookie quarterback faces a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes with 25, and it only has six interceptions. 

If Lock connects with Courtland Sutton for a score, like he did twice in his debut, the visiting Broncos could feature in a high-scoring affair. 

Since the start of October, Houston has produced over 20 points in all but one contest, and it has put up 48 in the two weeks following the seven-point outing versus Baltimore. 

If the Texans produce at a similar clip and Lock continues to progress, the over could be the best bet of the matchup. 

                  

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Over/Under: 42.5

Pick: Under

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Jacksonville's offense has been inconsistent with Gardner Minshew II and Nick Foles under center. 

In two of Minshew's final four starts before Foles returned, the Jaguars were held to single digits by New Orleans and Houston. 

In the last three weeks, Doug Marrone's team totaled 44 points and turned the ball over on four occasions in a Week 13 loss to Tampa Bay. 

The Los Angeles Chargers have been more productive, but they have struggled with nine turnovers in the last three games. 

Given the shortcomings of both teams, it is hard to convince anyone they will combine for 43 points to hit the over. 

                

Kansas City at New England (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 48.5

Pick: Over 

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

The immediate reaction to this line should be to hammer the over. 

Kansas City and New England combined for 83 points in their regular-season meeting a year ago and produced 68 in the AFC divisional round. 

Before you make this one of your top plays of Week 14, you have to take into account the Patriots' pass defense, which has allowed a league-low eight scores and grabbed a league-high 20 interceptions. 

The counter to that is the 65 points put up by Baltimore and Houston on the Patriots defense in Weeks 9 and 13. 

The average total in the Chiefs' 12 games is 51.9 points, and if you apply the current total to their last five games, the over would have hit four times. 

While it is smart to be concerned about Patrick Mahomes' performance versus the Patriots' pass defense, Kansas City's season totals suggest the over has a good chance. 

                 

Tennessee at Oakland (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 46.5

Pick: Under 

AJ Mast/Associated Press

While Tennessee surged into a favorable position in the AFC wild-card race, Oakland put up 12 points in losses to the Jets and Chiefs. 

The Titans produced 108 points in the last three games, but that trend could come to a halt through Oakland's run defense. Jon Gruden's team held its last two foes under 100 rushing yards, and it ranks 11th in rushing yards conceded. 

The Titans sit one spot above the Raiders on that list and are one of 13 squads to allow fewer than 10 scores on the ground. 

If Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs are halted, this could turn into a low-scoring battle with the Titans trying to hold off the Raiders to stay ahead of them in the AFC wild-card standings. 

               

Pittsburgh at Arizona (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Over/Under: 43

Pick: Under 

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Pittsburgh heads to Arizona with a defense that has given up the fifth-fewest yards and is tied with Minnesota and New England for fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. The Steelers have also held four of their last six foes under 20 points. 

In the previous four weeks, their offense lacked explosiveness, with 60 points produced versus the Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati and in two meetings with Cleveland. 

If T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and Co. limit Kyler Murray's output, the game could easily go under the current total of 43. 

                 

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Over/Under: 48

Pick: Over 

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - DECEMBER 02: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks, right, and mascot Blitz, left, congratulate Rashaad Penny #20, center, after scoring a touchdown during the game against the Minnesota Vikings at CenturyLink Field on December 0
Alika Jenner/Getty Images

Los Angeles' offensive resurgence in Week 13 and its 29 points versus Seattle in Week 5 make it to believe the team could produce enough points to help the over hit. 

The Seahawks defense has allowed over 20 points in all but two contests, and their average concession in three NFC West games is 21. 

In Week 5, Seattle gashed the Rams for 167 rushing yards, and in the last few weeks, its ground attack has gotten better with Rashaad Penny improving alongside Chris Carson. Against Philadelphia and Minnesota, Pete Carroll's squad recorded its two highest ground totals of the season. 

Two weeks ago, Sean McVay's team allowed 285 rushing yards to Baltimore, and if it struggles to contain another playoff-bound side, it may lose ground on Minnesota in the NFC wild-card hunt. 

                  

New York Giants at Philadelphia (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Over/Under: 46.5 

Pick: Under 

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 20: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants throws the ball during warmups before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at MetLife Stadium on October 20, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Gett
Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Eli Manning's return adds intrigue to what would have been an average-at-best NFC East clash. 

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Giants head coach Pat Shurmur said Manning is "very likely" to start at Lincoln Financial Field. 

Manning is 1-5 in the last three seasons versus Philadelphia, and he produced one touchdown pass in a pair of 2018 meetings. In two starts this season, the 38-year-old led the Giants to 31 points versus Dallas and Buffalo. 

In the Eagles' last three home games, they produced 41 points versus Chicago, New England and Seattle. 

Because their wide receiver play has been inconsistent, it is hard to tell right now if 31 points versus Miami was a turnaround or an outlier in the middle of a brutal stretch.

                     

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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