Week 13 NFL Picks: Spread Advice, Best Odds and Full Game Predictions

A pair of concerning trends could put the Dallas Cowboys' one-game NFC East lead in jeopardy. 

Dallas is 0-4 versus teams that entered a matchup with a winning record, and it has not won back-to-back Thanksgiving Day games during Jason Garrett's tenure. 

The Cowboys' struggles against successful teams could come into play Thursday, with AFC No. 5 seed Buffalo coming into AT&T Stadium. 

Thursday's marquee clash is one of four meetings between franchises entering Week 13 in playoff positions. 

A potential Super Bowl preview in Baltimore, a meeting of No. 1 versus No. 3 in the AFC and a showdown of the NFC's wild-card leaders are also in store Sunday and Monday. 

If San Francisco stumbles in Baltimore, Monday's result between Seattle and Minnesota could shake up the NFC playoff picture.  

NFL Week 13 Schedule

All Times ET

Odds via Caesars; predictions against the spread in bold

Thursday, November 28

Chicago (-3) at Detroit (12:30 p.m., Fox) 

Buffalo at Dallas (-6.5) (4:30 p.m., CBS) 

New Orleans (-7) at Atlanta (8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Sunday, December 1

Washington at Carolina (-10) (1 p.m., CBS) 

New York Jets (-3.5) at Cincinnati (1 p.m., CBS) 

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-2.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Cleveland (-2) at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., CBS) 

San Francisco at Baltimore (-6) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (-1) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Philadelphia (-9) at Miami (1 p.m., Fox) 

Green Bay (-6.5) at New York Giants (1 p.m., Fox) 

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Arizona (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Oakland at Kansas City (-10) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

New England (-3) at Houston (8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Monday, December 2

Minnesota at Seattle (-3) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Best Odds

Buffalo (+6.5) at Dallas

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

While most of the pressure is on Dallas to succeed Thursday, Buffalo is entering a stretch where it needs to prove its playoff worth. 

Sean McDermott's team has played a single opponent currently in a playoff position, and in that contest, it fell 16-10 at home to New England.

In the next four weeks, the Bills face Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and New England in a stretch that could define their season and how they enter the playoffs. 

Buffalo is coming off its best defensive performance after holding Denver to three points and 134 total yards Sunday. 

The Bills have held three foes to single digits and only allowed a trio of teams to eclipse the 20-point mark.

In Week 4, the AFC wild-card leader limited New England to 16 points on 224 total yards. 

In that game, Tom Brady managed 150 passing yards and threw an interception, while Sony Michel was contained to 63 rushing yards on 17 carries. 

If the Bills hold Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to similar totals, their offense could do enough to not only cover, but earn an outright win. 

In the last two weeks, Josh Allen completed over 60 percent of his passes, threw for 441 yards and earned six total touchdowns. 

Since struggling with the Patriots, the second-year quarterback has five multi-score performances through the air. 

In John Brown and Cole Beasley, Allen has two consistent targets to challenge a Cowboys defense that allowed 311.8 yards per game in losses to Green Bay, New Orleans, Minnesota and New England. 

Additionally, Jason Garrett's team let up over 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games, which is a positive sign for Allen, Frank Gore and Devin Singletary. 

Conversely, Buffalo's defense held five opponents under 100 rushing yards, including the last two, and Elliott earned 67 yards per game in Dallas' five defeats. 

Prescott has been better with an average of 314.6 passing yards in losses, but he has five touchdown passes and six interceptions.

If Buffalo stifles Dallas' ground game and forces a turnover or two out of Prescott, it could be in contention to win in the final few minutes. 

If that is the case, the Bills may have an easy time covering the 6.5-point spread while proving they can compete with a potential playoff team. 

Minnesota at Seattle (-3) 

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Depending on how the 49ers play in Baltimore, the Seattle Seahawks could be playing for first place in the NFC West Monday. 

Pete Carroll's team is one game back of San Francisco with a head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, so if the teams are level, it would be on top. 

Seattle is 7-1 in its last eight games, and it found a way to win ugly in Week 13 versus Philadelphia. 

At home, the Russell Wilson-led offense produced at least 20 points in four victories, including a 40-point outburst versus Tampa Bay in the last contest at CenturyLink Field. 

The Most Valuable Player candidate is facing a Vikings defense that allowed 1,214 total yards in three games before their Week 12 bye. 

Against Kansas City and Denver, Minnesota conceded two of its three highest rushing yard totals of the season, which could mean success is on the horizon for Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny.

Carson has four 100-yard performances, and before Week 13, he earned 15 carries in every contest, while Penny exploded for 129 yards on 14 carries and a score in the win over the Eagles. 

If the duo can tax Minnesota's defense with a handful of long gains, Wilson may face less pressure if the visitors are concerned about the run.

Regardless of how the Vikings position themselves, Wilson could thrive, as he has 14 touchdowns and a single interception inside his home stadium. 

But his performance could be matched by Kirk Cousins, who has 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in five road games. 

In his last two trips to Kansas City and Dallas, he produced 440 passing yards, five scores and was sacked just twice. 

However, he is facing a Seattle defense that held New Orleans and Baltimore, the two playoff contenders if faced at home, to under 200 passing yards. 

Six of Seattle's last seven wins have been by one possession, so expect another close affair Monday, and it could come down to which quarterback thrives the best in the fourth quarter.

That is where Wilson could be the difference-maker, as he is taking on a defense that has conceded over 330 total yards in four of six road games. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference