Pretender or Contender: Which NFL Teams Are for Real?

While the NFL doesn't necessarily want fans to know it, three weeks of action is enough to tell us an incredible amount about how things will play out. 

For example, 3.4 percent of teams that start a season 0-3 go on to make the playoffs. Miami is clearly out, but that's also bad news for teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers—though Houston did pull off the rare feat last year. 

On the other hand, the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams are surefire playoff contenders. Still, a hot start doesn't always mean a team will keep its postseason hopes alive. Opponents adjust during a season based on film, injuries and schedules, and several teams will have trouble keeping up.

The following squads started hot, yet some of these factors will sort them into contender/pretender buckets upon closer examination. 

Buffalo Bills (3-0)

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Since the Buffalo Bills are coming off a six-win season, it's easy to write off their undefeated start as a fluke—especially given the competition. 

Playing both New York teams and Cincinnati, which have one win combined, has a way of creating that perception.

But the first two victories came on the road. This team is winning games early, as opposed to last year, when it lost 47-3 and 31-20 in the first two weeks and didn't secure a fourth win until Week 12 last year. 

Part of the reason for optimism is quarterback Josh Allen, who sits on a 64.1 completion percentage with a trio of touchdowns and interceptions, as well as two rushing scores. He's good for big mistakes but also huge plays and has a smashmouth running game behind him that's averaging 4.8 yards per carry with five scores. The Bills have also only given up five sacks in the passing game.

Most of it, though, is the elite defense. The Bills have allowed under 300 yards and 15.7 points per game, producing a comfortable plus-19 differential. Keep in mind, they've allowed just 88 rushing yards per game on a Le'Veon Bell-Saquon Barkley-Joe Mixon schedule. 

Already much improved over last year, the Bills get tanking Miami twice, winless Washington, Denver and Pittsburgh teams—not to mention the New York Jets again and the 1-2 Browns. Maybe they won't take the AFC East outright, but these Bills are performing well and have a good-looking schedule. 

Verdict: Contender 

Detroit Lions (2-0-1)

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The Detroit Lions are undefeated...in a way.

A Week 1 tie against the Arizona Cardinals is a knock against the team's contender status, and yet, their 2-0-1 mark is still enough to put them second in the NFC North.

Still, the warning signs are there even outside the tie. A win over the Los Angeles Chargers sounds great, but it came at home while the Chargers were missing several key players, including safety Derwin James (foot). A similar three-point escape from the Philadelphia Eagles also featured key absences from DeSean Jackson (groin) and Alshon Jeffery (calf), for starters. 

Detroit once again doesn't have much of a running game, as the backfield is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry (boosted by a 15.3-yard average for J.D. McKissic on three totes). Quarterback Matthew Stafford is consistent, but his defense is already coughing up 394.7 yards per game (though it has nine sacks). 

The Lions haven't played a game in the NFC North, where 3-0 Green Bay looks good thanks to an improved defense, and both Minnesota and Chicago have two wins each after both swept Detroit last year. Never mind that Kansas City is on the schedule in Week 4, as is three-quarters of the NFC East. 

Detroit has some familiar problems paired with a brutal schedule, which makes it easy to envision a struggle to come—which has been well represented over the first three games. 

Verdict: Pretender      

Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The Baltimore Ravens once again feature their annual good defense, having allowed only one opponent to score more than 17 points through three games. 

Granted, the two they limited to that mark were lowly Arizona and Miami, and the defense struggled against the Kansas City Chiefs in a 33-28 Week 3 loss. 

But that's also when the good shined through. Quarterback Lamar Jackson bumped his numbers to 863 passing yards and seven touchdowns, and the strong running game averaged north of six yards per carry.

After the game, head coach John Harbaugh brilliantly explained why he went for several risky fourth-down attempts, of which the Ravens converted three of four. Baltimore seemed to set a 30-point goal for itself and went for it where other teams would have punted. 

So not only does Jackson look like a borderline MVP contender in an offense built around him, but an aggressive, forward coaching stance also has the Ravens looking promising. 

And the AFC North sure helps. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have yet to win a game and Cleveland has stumbled to 1-2 with apparent coaching issues. There are games against Seattle, Houston, New England and the Los Angeles Rams on the schedule, but this has the feel of a team built to play with anyone, as it showed in the close affair in Kansas City. 

Verdict: Contender     

San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Things look great for the San Francisco 49ers—but can it last? 

The 49ers are 3-0 with a plus-42 point differential, which would be a little more impressive if the schedule had a legitimate threat on it. 

The 49ers have played three teams that share one win, and that came when Tampa Bay beat Carolina with a hobbled Cam Newton. Topping Cincinnati 41-17 looks impressive, but the opposition was laughable, and beating Pittsburgh 24-20 would've been more impressive if the Niners hadn't coughed up five turnovers.

It's hard to knock a team too much for winning games it's supposed to. But quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has still flashed some rust after his torn ACL, as he has five scores against four picks. In addition, an array of running backs might not stand up as well against strong defenses. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is predictably calling great games, though, and his defense is a pressure machine with nine sacks. 

Yet, the 49ers are through the easy part of their schedule and have an unfortunate Week 4 bye, which means no relief the rest of the way from bumps and bruises. They have to play the Los Angles Rams and Seattle twice apiece still. They got swept by Arizona last season and will face them twice. Non-divisional opponents include Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and Atlanta. 

Since teams have seen film on Shanahan's 2019 scheme, it might take a big leap from Garoppolo to make a 13-game gauntlet manageable. 

Verdict: Pretender

Green Bay Packers (3-0)

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Aaron Rodgers might have the best defense he's ever played with, which could end the analysis right there. 

The Green Bay Packers are undefeated because of it too. A gritty 10-3 win over the Bears in Chicago to start the season said it all. Afterward, holding the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos to 16 points apiece was a natural follow-up. 

Put briefly: The Packers are coughing up under 200 yards per game. Jaire Alexander is a breakout star at corner. Darnell Savage, a first-round pick this year, has boosted the secondary. New arrivals Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith have helped the defense surge to 12 sacks. 

None of this has accounted for Rodgers, who at worst has taken care of the ball with four touchdowns and no picks. The seven sacks are concerning, as is the lack of a second playmaker at wideout, but if there is one passer to trust while he leans into a superb defense, it's Rodgers.

The Packers are 2-0 in the division and have the road game in Chicago out of the way. Playing the NFC East and AFC West from this point won't be an easy task, yet winning low-scoring games on the strength of an imposing defense and a Hall of Famer under center is hard to complain about. Odds are strong Rodgers ticks it up a notch as the season continues. A Week 11 bye splits things up nicely too. 

Verdict: Contender

Houston Texans (2-1)

PETER JONELEIT/Associated Press

Deshaun Watson is an amazing player who does borderline-silly things with the football while surrounded by an incredible supporting cast of weapons. 

So what's the problem? 

Protection, mostly—same as it always is for the Houston Texans. 

One play comes to mind right away: In this magician's act against the Chargers, Watson has to break tackles in a messy pocket, switches the ball to his throwing hand and throws across his body for a touchdown of 53 yards. That's not an unusual occurrence for Watson, who has tossed six touchdowns and just one pick but has taken 12 sacks behind a horrific line. His ground game is averaging 4.8 yards per carry but has to lean into the uninspiring Duke Johnson-Carlos Hyde duo. 

It isn't fully fair to pin a pretender status on the chance of an injury to a quarterback, though. The defense might have 10 sacks, but it's among the bottom half of the league in yardage given up, and corner Johnathan Joseph is leading the team in tackles. 

The schedule and relentless pressure on Watson won't lighten up, either. Games against Atlanta, Kansas City, Baltimore and New England remain, as do a slate of AFC South contests. Keep in mind 2-1 Indianapolis hasn't skipped much of a beat without Andrew Luck under center. Houston's success just doesn't seem sustainable despite some of the talent on the roster, as that schedule is brutal. 

Verdict: Pretender