The NFL's Week 3 slate still has the Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins left to play Monday night, but Caesars Palace senior oddsmaker Alan Berg shared the early lines for 12 of Week 4's games on Sunday night:
As has been the case through the first three weeks of the season, the largest favorite is the team playing the Miami Dolphins with the Los Angeles Chargers at -16. Thus far, every team to beat the Dolphins has covered.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are six games with a spread under five. That includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys are -3 despite having to go into New Orleans, likely in part because Saints quarterback Drew Brees is out with an injured throwing hand.
Below is a further look into two of next weekend's surest bets.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New Orleans Saints
While defeating the lowly Dolphins 31-6 isn't anything to brag about, the Cowboys are undefeated against the spread this year (h/t Action Network). The Saints, meanwhile, are 2-1 after beating the Seattle Seahawks 33-27 Sunday.
If Brees were healthy, this would be a game to stay away from. But despite backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's solid performance against Seattle, Dallas held a Brees-led Saints squad to 10 points the last time these two teams faced off (Nov. 29, 2018).
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been playing on another level so far this season with 920 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Dallas having its Pro Bowl QB in peak form while the Saints are depending on Bridgewater, who hadn't started a game since Week 17 last season before Sunday, is enough to believe the Cowboys can cover.
New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 3-0, sure, but they have beaten the likes of the 0-3 New York Jets, 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals and 1-2 New York Giants. The Patriots have also defeated subpar competition (Pittsburgh, Miami, New York Jets) but have done so by outscoring them 106-17.
The Patriots didn't cover their 21-point spread on Sunday, but a seven-point spread feels much more doable. The Bills couldn't cover a six-point spread over the Bengals, who haven't scored more than 20 points in 2019. It is unlikely that second-year Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen will keep pace with Tom Brady and New England's offense.
The Patriots' record against the spread in the Bill Belichick era has proven profitable more often than not:
Not to mention, New England hasn't lost at Buffalo since 2011.