NFL Week 4 Predictions: Early Projections for Vegas Odds, Lines and Spreads

The New England Patriots' dominance of the AFC East will be tested in Week 4 when they face the Buffalo Bills, who hold the same 3-0 record as them. 

If Bill Belichick's team leaves New Era Field with a win, it would be 3-0 in the division before the end of September; but a Buffalo victory could make the conference race a bit more intriguing, and it would cement the Bills' status as a playoff contender.

Sunday ends with an NFC clash between Dallas and New Orleans that became even more appetizing after the Saints won their first game without Drew Brees on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. 

Week 4 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET.

Odds via Caesars and Vegas Insider; predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, September 26

Philadelphia at Green Bay (-4.5) (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) 

Sunday, September 29

Tennessee at Atlanta (-5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

New England (-7) at Buffalo (1 p.m., CBS) 

Oakland at Indianapolis (-7) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Los Angeles Chargers (-16) at Miami (1 p.m., CBS)

Cleveland at Baltimore (-5.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Kansas City (-6.5) at Detroit (1 p.m., Fox) 

Washington at New York Giants (-3) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Carolina at Houston (-4) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-10) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Seattle (-3.5) at Arizona (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Minnesota at Chicago (-2) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Jacksonville at Denver (-2.5) (4;25 p.m., CBS) 

Dallas (-3) at New Orleans (8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Monday, September 30

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Predictions

New England (-7) at Buffalo 

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The Patriots have outscored two divisional opponents 73-14 in the last two weeks. The disparity should go down after Week 4 since the Bills are a much more competent team than Miami or the New York Jets. 

A year ago, Tom Brady and Co. rolled to a 25-6 win at New Era Field, one of their five double-digit AFC East triumphs. 

In three of the last four seasons, the Patriots have lost a division contest on the road. They fell in Miami in 2017 and 2018 and lost in back-to-back weeks to the Jets and Dolphins to conclude the 2015 campaign. In addition to playing well, that should hand the Bills some hope, despite being a seven-point underdog. 

Sean McDermott's team won a pair of one-possession games, and it squeezed out a home victory Sunday over Cincinnati by way of a late fourth-quarter drive. 

In the 21-17 win, the Bills limited Andy Dalton to 249 passing yards and conceded 67 rushing yards. If they produce similar numbers against the Patriots, they should at least remain competitive for four quarters. 

Buffalo could also stay in the game through its rushing attack that is coming off a 175-yard performance. 

While the home side has plenty going in its favor, it may not be able to get going versus the Patriots defense. New England held the Jets and Dolphins to 289 total yards on 108 plays, and it forced five interceptions. 

One of Josh Allen's flaws is he has thrown the same number of interceptions as touchdowns. If the Patriots either keep the second-year signal-caller out of the end zone or pick him off once or twice, they should be able to cover. 

Dallas at New Orleans (+3) 

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The Saints may be able to conjure up some home magic to take down Dallas Sunday night, but they need to put together a near-perfect game. 

One piece of the equation is a higher level of production from Teddy Bridgewater, who went 19-of-27 for 177 yards in the Week 3 win over Seattle. 

The backup to Brees relied on Alvin Kamara, who totaled 161 yards on 16 carries and nine receptions. Sean Payton's team needs the running back to threaten Dallas' defense from all angles, and it has to have a wide receiver step up alongside Michael Thomas.

Against Seattle, Kamara and Thomas were responsible for 14 of the 19 catches, and the four players who caught the other five mustered 31 receiving yards.

In the Week 1 win over Houston, the Saints had eight different pass-catchers, with six of them hauling in two or more from Brees. If Bridgewater distributes at a similar rate, New Orleans could keep the Cowboys defense on its toes.

In order to beat Dallas, the Saints must work on their yardage concession, as they let up the sixth-most yards per contest. But New Orleans has been able to limit its opponents' feature backs. In Week 2, it held Todd Gurley to 63 rushing yards and Chris Carson managed 53 yards Sunday. 

If they can hold Ezekiel Elliott to a similar total and get more out of Bridgewater, the Saints could win their second prime-time matchup of 2019. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.