NFL Picks Week 3: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

Quarterback changes and enormous spreads have captured our attention going into Week 3 of the NFL season. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, at least 18 signal-callers age 26 or under will start this week, which is the highest total since Week 3 of the 1987 campaign. 

Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater, Daniel Jones and Luke Falk all face difficult road tests in their first starts of the season, and all of their teams enter as underdogs. 

Falk and the New York Jets are on the wrong end of the largest spread, which is in favor of the New England Patriots. 

The Patriots and Dallas Cowboys appear to be the top locks to win Sunday, and the only question lingering around them is if they will cover 20-plus-point spreads. 

NFL Week 3 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET

Odds from Caesars; expert picks from Pickwatch

Tennessee (-2) at Jacksonville (Over/Under: 39)

Date and Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NFL Network) 

Expert Prediction: Tennessee (79 percent) 

The best play Thursday night is the under. 

A year ago, Tennessee and Jacksonville scored 15 points in Week 3 at TIAA Bank Field. In December, the Titans won 30-9 behind 238 rushing yards from Derrick Henry. 

The Titans played well in their opening win over Cleveland but delivered an uninspiring showing versus Indianapolis. 

Jacksonville was within one play of taking a fourth-quarter lead over Houston, but a failed two-point conversion dropped the Jags to 0-2. 

Since neither side has been convincing in both games, we suggest sticking with the trend of low-scoring matchups. Each of their last three meetings have featured 39 points or fewer. 

Atlanta at Indianapolis (-1.5) (Over/Under: 47.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Expert Prediction: Indianapolis (55 percent)

Despite being favored, Indianapolis could be at a disadvantage inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Colts have conceded 429 passing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee. That number could significantly increase with Matt Ryan and Co. coming to town.

Ryan has thrown for 625 passing yards and five touchdowns, and Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are both coming off 100-yard games. 

The key for Ryan is to avoid turnovers, as he has thrown five interceptions. If he keeps the ball away from the Colts, the Falcons could be in line for a road triumph.

The under may be the play on the total since just one game involving Atlanta and Indianapolis has had more than 45 points. 

Baltimore at Kansas City (-6.5) (Over/Under: 52.5)

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS) 

Expert Prediction: Kansas City (88 percent)

Kansas City was 7-1 in the regular season at Arrowhead Stadium in 2018, with one of those victories coming against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. 

The Chiefs won six of those games by seven or more points, but the one outlier was the overtime triumph over the Ravens in December. 

Some extra pressure could be put on Patrick Mahomes since Baltimore has given up 41 rushing yards. If Kansas City fails to gain traction on the ground, the third-year signal-caller might have an inflated stat line. 

Jackson could face some difficulties versus a defense that held Oakland to 178 passing yards in Week 2. 

The over seems like the easy bet with Jackson and Mahomes expected to sling the ball up and down the field, but keep the defensive numbers in mind before you finalize the wager.

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6) (Over/Under: 44) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Expert Prediction: Buffalo (97 percent) 

By the time Week 3 ends, we could be talking about the Buffalo Bills as a potential playoff team. 

With the New York Jets dealing with injuries and the Miami Dolphins playing terrible, Buffalo's floor appears to be second place in the AFC East. 

The Bills could strengthen their position in the conference during a stretch of five home games in the next six, starting with Sunday's home opener against Cincinnati. 

Sean McDermott's team gained 758 yards in the first two weeks, while Cincinnati has let up 805 yards, including 572 to San Francisco in Week 2. 

Until the Bengals prove they can stop opponents on a consistent basis, it is hard to put any trust in them. 

Denver at Green Bay (-7.5) (Over/Under: 43) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Expert Prediction: Green Bay (97 percent) 

Green Bay's defense forced four turnovers in Week 2, three of which came off Kirk Cousins. If the same pressure can be applied to Joe Flacco, the Packers should secure their second home victory. 

Flacco put up 560 passing yards versus Oakland and Chicago, but the Broncos only have 30 points to show for it. 

Green Bay has allowed 19 points to a pair of divisional foes, so that does not strike up any promise for a reversal in Denver's scoring production. 

If Matt LaFleur's squad wins Sunday and defeats Philadelphia next Thursday, it could set itself up for a clash of 4-0 teams with Dallas in Week 5. 

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6.5) (Over/Under: 45.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox) 

Expert Prediction: Philadelphia (91 percent)

It is surprising to see so much confidence in Philadelphia since the team is dealing with a slew of injuries. 

DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert and Corey Clement all missed Wednesday's walkthrough, per the team's official website. 

Without three of his receivers, Carson Wentz found a way to throw for 231 yards and a touchdown, and he gave the Eagles a chance to win late in the fourth quarter at Atlanta.

The good news for the Eagles is they are facing a Detroit defense that has been gashed for 811 yards. 

Defensively, Philadelphia has conceded 85 rushing yards, so it may be in a position to pressure Matthew Stafford on long-distance downs. 

In Week 2, Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz (formerly the Lions head coach) was aggressive with his play-calling, resulting in three interceptions and a sack. 

That strategy could be successful against Stafford, who threw his first two picks of 2019 in Week 2. 

Miami at Dallas (-21.5) (Over/Under: 46.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox) 

Expert Prediction: Dallas (100 percent) 

Dallas should be a popular pick in most survivor pools. 

The Cowboys are expected to roll over Miami at AT&T Stadium, with the margin of victory being the only thing in question. 

Jason Garrett's team racked up 66 points and 968 yards in two weeks, and it had a balanced approach in Week 2, with 261 passing yards and 213 rushing yards. 

If Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott replicate their performances from a week ago, the Dolphins could be in a world of hurt before halftime. 

Miami has been outscored 102-10 and out-gained 1,024-384. Those numbers give us zero confidence the Dolphins can find a way to cover. 

New York Jets at New England (-23) (Over/Under: 44) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Expert Prediction: New England (100 percent) 

If you do not want to or cannot use Dallas in your survivor pool, New England is the only other surefire option. 

The Patriots proved in Week 2 they can cover a large spread, as they defeated Miami by 43 points with an 18-point line. 

Knocking off the Jets with third-string quarterback Luke Falk by more than 23 points is an attainable task as well. 

In their last three meetings at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots have outscored the Jets 105-12, with each margin of victory being over 20 points. 

Additionally, the Patriots won their three AFC East games at home by an average of 26 points. 

Oakland at Minnesota (-9) (Over/Under: 43) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox) 

Expert Prediction: Minnesota (94 percent) 

The heavy backing of Minnesota comes from its dominance over Atlanta at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 1. 

In the 28-12 victory, the Vikings limited the Falcons to 73 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. 

If the Vikings can hold the Raiders, who have gained 227 yards on the ground in two weeks, to a minimal rushing total, they will force Derek Carr to win the game against a defense that has 15 quarterback hits, six sacks and two interceptions. 

In half of his 2018 road games, Carr failed to throw for a touchdown and was sacked three or more times on five occasions. 

Carolina (-2.5) at Arizona (Over/Under: 46.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox)

Expert Prediction: Arizona (63 percent) 

Kyler Murray's first professional victory could occur in Week 3. 

The No. 1 overall pick displayed promise in his first two starts by totaling 657 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Carolina enters its first road game with questions about Cam Newton's status. The quarterback did not participate in Wednesday's practice, per the team's official website. 

Losing Newton will not automatically hand Carolina a defeat, but it will put more pressure on Christian McCaffrey to rebound from a rough showing in Week 2. 

Luckily for the running back, Arizona conceded 182 rushing yards to Baltimore. If that total remains high, the Panthers could stay in the contest behind their all-purpose back. 

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-6.5) (Over/Under: 48) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox) 

Expert Prediction: Tampa Bay (88 percent) 

The New York Giants' quarterback change has not switched the line for their trip to Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay has been close to a touchdown favorite all week, and it is seen as a Week 3 winner by most experts. 

The Buccaneers defense could make Daniel Jones win the game by himself, as it has given up 137 rushing yards. 

Facing Saquon Barkley should not be an intimidating task for the Bucs, as they limited Christian McCaffrey to 53 total yards in Week 2. 

Houston at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) (Over/Under: 47.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS) 

Expert Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (69 percent)

The Los Angeles Chargers racked up over 400 yards in each of their first two games, but they only have a 1-1 record.

The Chargers failed to find the end zone and suffered from a pair of missed field goals by Ty Long in their defeat to Detroit. That is why there could be some concern about the Chargers winning at home in Week 3. 

Houston gave up 510 yards in its road opener in New Orleans, and if it concedes a similar number, it may set up success for Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen. 

In the Week 1 loss, the Texans allowed Alvin Kamara to earn 169 total yards. If that turns into a trend, Austin Ekeler could benefit in both aspects of the offense Sunday. 

New Orleans at Seattle (-4) (Over/Under: 44.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS) 

Expert Prediction: Seattle (97 percent) 

Since 2017, Teddy Bridgewater has thrown over 20 passes in a game twice. In Week 17 of 2018 and last Sunday, the Saints backup produced under 200 yards. 

If Bridgewater is unable to sling the ball for long gains, Seattle may go up early and never look back. 

By conceding 261 total yards to a banged-up Pittsburgh team, the Seahawks proved they can control the production of second-string players. 

Four of Seattle's six home wins in 2018 were by multiple scores. Two of them and the Week 1 victory over Cincinnati were by three points or fewer.

Pete Carroll's team may win straight up, but the close margins at CenturyLink Field make you question a bit if it will cover. 

Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-6.5) (Over/Under 43.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS) 

Expert Prediction: San Francisco (81 percent) 

San Francisco is coming off a 572-yard outburst versus Cincinnati, and it faces a Pittsburgh defense that allowed over 400 yards in each of its first two contests. 

If the Steelers are unable to stop Jimmy Garoppolo and Co., the clash at Levi's Stadium could turn into a high-scoring affair, which is why the over looks like the best play. 

Mason Rudolph produced a pair of touchdown drives in relief of Ben Roethlisberger, so there is some hope for him to lead the Steelers to a road victory. 

But in order to come out on top, the Steelers need to limit their losses on defense and Rudolph has to break free against a defense that has not conceded a 300-yard passing performance yet. 

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland (Over/Under: 49.5) 

Date and Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC) 

Expert Prediction: Los Angeles Rams (91 percent) 

It is understandable to not trust Cleveland going into Sunday night. 

The Browns faltered at home in Week 1 and settled for three field goals in their 23-3 win over the Jets. 

Los Angeles has put together a balanced attack with Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown complementing Jared Goff. 

Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all have over 100 receiving yards, and they will pose a test for a Cleveland passing defense that has allowed 385 yards. 

Baker Mayfield could struggle versus the Rams defense, as he has thrown four interceptions, and the NFC West side has limited opponents to 403 passing yards. 

If aerial limitations are in play, the total might trend toward the under. 

Chicago (-4) at Washington (Over/Under: 41.5) 

Date and Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN) 

Expert Prediction: Chicago (81 percent) 

Points could come at a premium at FedEx Field. Chicago's offense has totaled 19 points, and its defense has held foes to 24. 

If those numbers carry over to Monday night, the under could end up as the best wager. 

Washington struggled to run the ball versus Dallas and Philadelphia, and it could face more trouble against a Bears defense that gave up 137 rushing yards. 

There are more concerns about the Redskins when you look at their defense, as they allowed over 400 yards in both games. 

A third concession of a high yardage total could let Mitchell Trubisky turn in a breakout performance after throwing for 348 passing yards versus Green Bay and Denver. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.