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2019 Fantasy Football Big Board: Matt Camp's Final Preseason Rankings
August 28, 20192019 Fantasy Football Big Board: Matt Camp's Final Preseason Rankings
This is my final fantasy big board of the NFL preseason, but that doesn't mean the rankings are locked in. With more than a week until the regular season kicks off in Chicago and cutdown day fast approaching, situations are still malleable.
Until then, we'll hopefully learn more about the lingering injuries from the last month.
Teams have no responsibility to give out any official information until the first practice reports leading up to Week 1. Antonio Brown appears to be over his foot issues (and helmet battles), but it wouldn't be a shock to see him land on the Oakland Raiders' first injury report.
Other than injuries, you should pay attention to final cuts on Saturday. If a team is looking for a position of need, it may call around the league to see who's on the chopping block. Perhaps the Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs will check in with the Buffalo Bills about whether LeSean McCoy is available.
With all of that in mind, my rankings will be updated again before the start of the regular season, so bookmark this page to see the latest changes. While this article focuses on point-per-reception formats, the bookmark provides my rankings for PPR, non-PPR and half-PPR scoring systems.
Matt Camp answers your fantasy football questions live on B/R Gridiron's new show, Your Fantasy Fire Drill. Submit your questions and tune in every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Top 150
Based on current ADP data, 19 quarterbacks, 51 running backs, 56 wide receivers, 16 tight ends, five defenses and three kickers are going off the board in the top 150.
My top 150 features 18 QBs, 44 RBs, 72 WRs and 16 TEs without any kickers or defenses.
Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey both top my board and the ADP board. My top 36 rounds out with Melvin Gordon as RB15 and includes 18 WRs, three TEs and no QBs. The top 36 in ADP finishes with Gordon as RB18 and includes 14 WRs, three TEs and Patrick Mahomes as the lone QB with an ADP of 21.2.
While I remain skeptical about the health of Todd Gurley (RB14), he's among the top 10 RBs in ADP (RB8). No other Los Angeles Rams player has an ADP inside the top 36, with Brandin Cooks coming the closest at 38.4. I rank Robert Woods (WR15), Cooks (WR16) and Cooper Kupp (WR17) inside the top 36 in part because of concerns with Gurley's knee.
2019 Top 150 PPR Draft Rankings
2019 Top 150 PPR Draft Rankings
Quarterbacks
Target Based on Value
Carson Wentz, PHI
Current ADP: 79.6/QB6
My Ranking: QB4
Wentz finished as the QB5 in 2017 despite missing three games and was the top QB based on fantasy points per game (minimum 10 games). Last season, neither Wentz nor Alshon Jeffery opened the season on the field, and Wentz's back issues took him down after 11 games.
This year, Wentz and Jeffery are both healthy entering the season, and the Philadelphia Eagles upgraded their receiving corps with DeSean Jackson and rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Jackson has a broken ring finger, but he may play though what he was told is a 3-4 week injury, per Josina Anderson of ESPN. Plus, the Eagles backfield looks far better than it did in 2018 with rookie Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard leading the way.
When you add in tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, this is the deepest group of offensive talent Wentz has had at his disposal. As long as he can avoid the injury bug, he should be a top-five QB.
Potential Sleeper
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI
Current ADP: 150.6/QB19
My Ranking: QB12
Trubisky is a great example of the difference between reality and fantasy. Even though he took a step forward under head coach Matt Nagy in 2018, he didn't look like anything more than a serviceable quarterback who benefited from playing in a creative offense with good talent around him.
However, Trubisky was a solid fantasy option last season. In 14 games, he averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game, which ranked 10th amongst QBs who played at least 10 games. With 421 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, Trubisky's legs boosted his fantasy value. Only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton had more rushing yards at the position.
Not much has changed for Trubisky. In fact, his backfield may be better with a potential star in David Montgomery joining Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. Trubisky is a great late-round option, especially since there's no risk in drafting him as a backup.
Other Situations to Monitor
Cam Newton, CAR
Current ADP: 93.8/QB9
My Ranking: QB10
Injury concerns may never go away for the rest of Newton's career. But when he walked out of the third preseason game in a walking boot, a new red flag popped up at an inopportune time.
Luckily, head coach Ron Rivera said there's "no doubt in my mind" Newton will be ready for Week 1, according to David Newton of ESPN.
"Everything he's been doing, everything he's done, he's done exactly what he's needed to," Rivera added. "We're at the point now where it's just a matter of time before we start our official prep for the Rams that he's back on the field.''
Newton's injury risks are built into his current ADP, so even if he has a top-five ceiling, you aren't paying a top-five price.
2019 Quarterback Draft Rankings
# Player (Team/Bye) 1 Patrick Mahomes KC (12) 2 Deshaun Watson HOU (10) 3 Aaron Rodgers GB (11) 4 Carson Wentz PHI (10) 5 Baker Mayfield CLE (7) 6 Matt Ryan ATL (9) 7 Jared Goff LAR (9) 8 Drew Brees NO (9) 9 Russell Wilson SEA (11) 10 Cam Newton CAR (7) 11 Kyler Murray ARI (12) 12 Mitch Trubisky CHI (6) 13 Dak Prescott DAL (8) 14 Jameis Winston TB (7) 15 Tom Brady NE (10) 16 Philip Rivers LAC (12) 17 Ben Roethlisberger PIT (7) 18 Lamar Jackson BAL (8) 19 Kirk Cousins MIN (12) 20 Josh Allen BUF (6) 21 Jimmy Garoppolo SF (4) 22 Jacoby Brissett IND (6) 23 Sam Darnold NYJ (4) 24 Matthew Stafford DET (5) 25 Derek Carr OAK (6) 26 Nick Foles JAC (10) 27 Andy Dalton CIN (9) 28 Josh Rosen MIA (5) 29 Joe Flacco DEN (10) 30 Dwayne Haskins WAS (10) 31 Eli Manning NYG (11) 32 Marcus Mariota TEN (11) 33 Daniel Jones NYG (11) 34 Ryan Tannehill TEN (11) 35 Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA (5) 36 Will Grier CAR (7) 37 Case Keenum WAS (10) 38 Drew Lock DEN (10)
2019 Quarterback Draft Rankings
| # | Player (Team/Bye) |
|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes KC (12) |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson HOU (10) |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers GB (11) |
| 4 | Carson Wentz PHI (10) |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield CLE (7) |
| 6 | Matt Ryan ATL (9) |
| 7 | Jared Goff LAR (9) |
| 8 | Drew Brees NO (9) |
| 9 | Russell Wilson SEA (11) |
| 10 | Cam Newton CAR (7) |
| 11 | Kyler Murray ARI (12) |
| 12 | Mitch Trubisky CHI (6) |
| 13 | Dak Prescott DAL (8) |
| 14 | Jameis Winston TB (7) |
| 15 | Tom Brady NE (10) |
| 16 | Philip Rivers LAC (12) |
| 17 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (7) |
| 18 | Lamar Jackson BAL (8) |
| 19 | Kirk Cousins MIN (12) |
| 20 | Josh Allen BUF (6) |
| 21 | Jimmy Garoppolo SF (4) |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett IND (6) |
| 23 | Sam Darnold NYJ (4) |
| 24 | Matthew Stafford DET (5) |
| 25 | Derek Carr OAK (6) |
| 26 | Nick Foles JAC (10) |
| 27 | Andy Dalton CIN (9) |
| 28 | Josh Rosen MIA (5) |
| 29 | Joe Flacco DEN (10) |
| 30 | Dwayne Haskins WAS (10) |
| 31 | Eli Manning NYG (11) |
| 32 | Marcus Mariota TEN (11) |
| 33 | Daniel Jones NYG (11) |
| 34 | Ryan Tannehill TEN (11) |
| 35 | Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA (5) |
| 36 | Will Grier CAR (7) |
| 37 | Case Keenum WAS (10) |
| 38 | Drew Lock DEN (10) |
Running Backs
Target Based on Value
Chris Carson, SEA
Current ADP: 39.0/RB21
My Ranking: RB13
Just because the Seattle Seahawks used a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny in 2018 doesn't mean he automatically sits atop the RB depth chart. That wasn't the case last year, and it won't be the case to start this season, either.
Carson has done nothing to losing the starting job even if Penny is in line for more touches with Mike Davis now a member of the Chicago Bears.
The Seahawks ranked first in rushing yards and second in rushing attempts last season. Since then, No. 1 receiver Doug Baldwin retired, and they're battling injury issues at wide receiver including DK Metcalf (knee) and David Moore (shoulder).
Carson might be even more important to the Seahawks offense than he was in 2018.
Overvalued
Derrick Henry, TEN
Current ADP: 37.4/RB19
My Ranking: RB27
Henry's scorching finish to the 2018 season likely contributed to many fantasy championships. But relying on him for the majority of last season might have kept your team out of the fantasy playoffs.
Over the final four games, Henry was the top fantasy RB with 26.5 fantasy points per game. From Weeks 1-13, he was RB39 in total fantasy points.
That wide disparity in outcomes should give you pause before believing in Henry as a reliable RB2 in 2019.
Should the Tennessee Titans lean on Henry? Yes, but game flow could be a problem. There isn't much to be excited about in that offense with QB Marcus Mariota looking nowhere like the player who dominated in 2016.
If the Titans don't stay in games, Henry's fantasy value will plummet since he doesn't catch passes.
While Henry appears to be over the calf issue that plagued him for much of training camp, it's fair to question his ability to repeat his hot December in a less-than-ideal situation.
Potential Sleeper
Latavius Murray, NO
Current ADP: 88.2/RB34
My Ranking: RB31
When in doubt, favor good teams.
Murray might not seem like an exciting pick, but reliability could go a long way if he's in your flex spot on a weekly basis. Now that he's a member of the New Orleans Saints, being the second back behind Alvin Kamara shouldn't be considered a negative.
The Saints were sixth in rushing and fifth in rushing attempts last year. The Drew Brees-led passing offense was 12th in yards and 23rd in attempts. Brees was efficient, yet the Saints leaned on their running game.
When Ingram returned from his four-game suspension to open last season, he played at a top-20 level for the rest of the year. Based on Murray's ADP, you're getting a flex player in an offense that could produce two top-25 fantasy backs.
Other Situations to Monitor
Melvin Gordon, LAC
Current ADP: 34.0/RB18
My Ranking: RB15
The quiet surrounding Gordon is not good.
There are no positive reports on a potential deal, and with each passing day, his fantasy value takes a hit. Without any indication Gordon will be on the field for Week 1, it becomes harder to draft him before the third round.
As your second back, it's probably worth the risk even if he misses two or three games. Just make sure you have a reliable option to plug into your lineup in the meantime.
2019 Running Back PPR Draft Rankings
2019 Running Back PPR Draft Rankings
Wide Receivers
Target Based on Value
Alshon Jeffery, PHI
Current ADP: 62.6/WR27
My Ranking: WR21
Offseason shoulder surgery kept Jeffery out for the first three games of 2018, so he wasn't a valued fantasy commodity last year. But Jeffery was WR17 from Weeks 4-17 and was able to weather the absence of Carson Wentz down the stretch.
Surprisingly, Jeffery isn't getting much love in 2019 despite both he and Wentz being fully healthy. You can draft Jeffery as a WR3 with legit WR2 upside.
Overvalued
Antonio Brown, OAK
Current ADP: 20.0/WR8
My Ranking: WR10
Even if we ignore the frozen feet and helmet issues (which we can't), consider the downgrade Brown faces going from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr.
Roethlisberger has averaged 7.8 yards per attempt throughout his career. Carr has never topped 7.3 YPA in a single season, and that happened last year. Brown also goes from an offense that led the league in pass attempts to the Raiders, who were tied for 16th in that category.
Brown is a talented enough player to put his ridiculous August behind him, but his ceiling won't be as high playing in Oakland with Carr. Seeing him go ahead of players like Mike Evans and Keenan Allen doesn't make sense when they are in better situations with better QBs.
Brown should have a good season, but you shouldn't pay this price.
Potential Sleeper
Geronimo Allison, GB
Current ADP: 122.2/WR46
My Ranking: WR32
Allison was one of my favorite sleepers coming into 2018 and appeared to be on his way to paying off over the first month of the season. He was the WR28 while averaging 15 fantasy points per game despite Aaron Rodgers playing at less than 100 percent on a bad knee.
Unfortunately, Allison dealt with multiple injuries and was limited to only five games.
With Allison expected to be featured in the slot this season, he could be a tremendous mismatch for Rodgers to exploit because of his 6'3", 202-pound frame. If you believe in Rodgers, you should believe in Allison as well, especially at such a great value.
Other Situations to Monitor
T.Y. Hilton, IND
Current ADP: 32.4/WR12
My Ranking: WR19
ADP information is still adjusting to Andrew Luck's retirement, although Hilton's value was beginning to dip because of Luck's ongoing leg issue.
With Luck now out of the mix, you can expect Hilton's value to drop even more. However, he shouldn't completely go off a cliff.
Jacoby Brissett is one of the NFL's best backup quarterbacks. The Indianapolis Colts decided to keep him rather than trading him to a QB-needy team during the offseason. While he may not have the upside of Luck, Brissett finds himself running the No. 6 passing offense from 2018 and has lots of talent around him along with a strong coaching staff.
Hilton may not be a preferred target, but he can still be a good WR2 with big-play potential. Don't hold the 2017 struggles of Brissett and the Colts offense against Hilton. This is a much better situation with a reliable supporting group.
2019 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Rankings
2019 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Rankings
Tight Ends
Targets Based on Value
Vance McDonald, PIT
Current ADP: 83.8/TE9
My Ranking: TE7
The battle for the No. 2 wide receiver spot in Pittsburgh is getting a lot of attention in fantasy circles with Antonio Brown vacating 24.9 percent of the target share. With Jesse James vacating another 5.8 percent, there are lots of fantasy points to be had, but everyone may be looking at the wrong position.
In 2018, McDonald finished as the TE10 despite missing a game. With all of those targets available on the team that threw the most passes last season, McDonald's ADP suggests he'll improve only one spot over last season.
McDonald logged six top-10 finishes last year. While that may not seem like much, only O.J. Howard, Eric Ebron, George Kittle, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce had more.
McDonald has the chance to improve and potentially break out as a top target for Ben Roethlisberger, and you don't have to pay for that breakout. If you don't go for one of the elite options early in your draft, McDonald is a good value in the later rounds.
Overvalued
Eric Ebron, IND
Current ADP: 80.4/TE8
My Ranking: TE10
Ebron was a prime candidate for both fantasy and touchdown regression after scoring 13 touchdowns and posting a TE4 finish in 2018. The additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell in addition to the return of a healthy Jack Doyle were bound to make Ebron's massive 2018 tough to replicate.
The Andrew Luck retirement saga has put a damper on all the Colts, but perhaps none more than Ebron considering how well the two connected in his first season with the team. Even though Ebron's regression had been built into his ADP, he remained in the conversation as a reliable fantasy option for this season.
The Colts aren't hopeless with Jacoby Brissett, but the ceiling has been lowered across the board.
Back in 2017 (before Ebron joined the Colts), Brissett targeted Doyle 108 times for 80 receptions. That target number was second only to Hilton's 109, and that reception total led the team.
Ebron's ADP should continue to drop, so don't feel like you have to get him. The tight end position is a mess after the top eight players, so Ebron finds himself in the 9-15 mix.
Potential Sleeper
Noah Fant, DEN
Current ADP: 190.0/TE22
My Ranking: TE16
In years past, Joe Flacco has had somewhat of a thing for tight ends.
Early in his career, it was Todd Heap. Later, it was Dennis Pitta. Players such as Ed Dickson and Ben Watson also had productive years working with Flacco.
That puts Fant on the fantasy radar in his rookie season.
Fant joins a Denver Broncos receiving corps led by Emmanuel Sanders, who is coming off a torn Achilles. Courtland Sutton enters his second season with raised expectations, but he failed to become a consistent fantasy contributor following the trade of Demaryius Thomas. Other than Sanders, the Broncos didn't have a receiver register more than Sutton's 42 receptions.
The door is open for Fant considering Flacco's reliance on tight ends and the lack of established options in Denver's passing game. Fant is basically a freebie at his current ADP, so don't fear taking a shot on him at the end of your draft.
2019 Tight End PPR Draft Rankings
2019 Tight End PPR Draft Rankings
Defenses and Kickers
Defenses
Until proved otherwise, stick to the script when it comes to defenses: Don't bother taking one until the final two rounds.
Burning an earlier pick on a defense means you're passing up the chance to take a shot on a diamond in the rough. In fact, you can ignore defenses entirely if you aren't required to draft one. Just make sure to grab a unit off the waiver wire before Week 1.
The philosophy of streaming defenses can start right away, which is why you should only focus on Week 1 when it comes to drafting your defense. Consider a team like the Philadelphia Eagles, who have a favorable home matchup against a weak offensive team like the Washington Redskins.
The Dallas Cowboys are also an ideal option since they could stick in your lineup for the first three games. They open the season against the New York Giants, Redskins, and Miami Dolphins.
Kickers
If you make a kicker a priority, you're trying to lose.
Ideally, you want your kicker to have a blend of accuracy and opportunity, although this is another position to stream and can be bypassed if your league doesn't require one on your roster at the end of the draft. In fact, you can wait until the last possible moment to grab a kicker if it keeps someone else from grabbing a player you have to drop to fill the kicker spot.
All average draft position (ADP) data and fantasy stats used to calculate finishes from FantasyPros. All advanced stats calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on PPR formats.