Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Although mock drafts can be a guide for your actual fantasy football drafts, remember that a variety of factors will affect how and when players are selected in each round. 

Timing is a big part of it. If you drafted at the beginning of August, there was likely more optimism surrounding Andrew Luck's leg injury. Halfway through the preseason, Luck's Week 1 status is now more in question, which has a trickle-down effect on his average draft position and his teammates' ADP, too. 

You also must take your league's scoring system into account. This mock draft was conducted as a points-per-reception (PPR) league. James White was the 20th running back off the board at pick No. 44 in this mock, yet his average draft position in non-PPR formats is 62/RB27.

If you're preparing for a draft in the coming weeks, it's useless to plan multiple picks. You might have a loose strategy in the first few rounds, but as this mock draft will show, the board may not mimic what you've seen in other mocks or ADP information. Remain fluid and adjust to the board. 

This mock draft is a 12-team, PPR format with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 K and 1 D. It was run using the FantasyPros Draft Simulator. While I picked from the No. 10 spot, the auto-generated teams used the expert consensus rankings.  

In addition to analyzing each round, I'll take you inside my head to explain the strategy and process for each of my picks. 

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

1. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

2. RB Alvin Kamara, NO

3. RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR

4. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

5. WR Davante Adams, GB

6. RB David Johnson, ARI

7. WR Julio Jones, ATL

8. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

9. TE Travis Kelce, KC

10. WR Michael Thomas, NO

11. WR Odell Beckham Jr., CLE

12. RB James Conner, PIT

The Zeke Predicament

Elliott continues to hold out from the Dallas Cowboys, so the further we get into August, the riskier it may seem to draft him with a top-five pick. Even though I believe the Cowboys need Elliott to have a chance at defending their NFC East crown and will sign him to a new deal by Week 1, it's acceptable to pivot to a safer option in the middle of the first round.

Inside the Mind

If Elliott was there at No. 10, I would have had a tough decision to make. Despite the risk of his holdout continuing into the regular season, that value may be too hard to pass up that late in the first round. Instead, I took Thomas rather than a running back like Le'Veon Bell, James Conner or Joe Mixon. I had confidence one of those backs would be there when my pick came up in the second round. Thomas has a league-high 321 receptions over his first three seasons and remains the top option in New Orleans. 

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

13. RB Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

14. WR Tyreek Hill, KC

15. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT

16. WR Antonio Brown, OAK

17. RB Nick Chubb, CLE

18. TE George Kittle, SF

19. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN

20. WR Keenan Allen, LAC

21. WR Mike Evans, TB

22. RB Joe Mixon, CIN

23. RB Kerryon Johnson, DET

24. WR. T.Y. Hilton, IND

Comfort Zone

The first half of the second round features a reliable mix of running backs and wide receivers. You can largely feel comfortable taking any player in this round without calling him a reach. However, various issues have affected Hilton, Allen and Brown, which has made the back end of the WR1 tier somewhat shaky. 

Surprisingly, Brown came off the board at No. 16 despite a lingering battle about his helmet choice and issues with frostbitten feet. Allen suffered an ankle injury that could keep him sidelined for the rest of the preseason, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. Hilton is healthy, yet his stock has slipped a bit because of Luck's delayed return from a lower-leg ailment.

Inside the Mind

Even though I expressed confidence in the running backs who would be available at No. 15 overall, I went with Smith-Schuster as my WR2 instead. Along with DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr. and Hill, I consider Smith-Schuster a candidate to finish as the top fantasy wide receiver this season. He finished as WR8 last year and is the unchallenged top option in Pittsburgh with Brown now on the Oakland Raiders.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

25. RB Todd Gurley, LAR

26. RB Marlon Mack, IND

27. WR Julian Edelman, NE

28. RB Damien Williams, KC

29. RB Chris Carson, SEA

30. RB Melvin Gordon III, LAC

31. WR Stefon Diggs, MIN

32. RB Aaron Jones, GB

33. WR Amari Cooper, DAL

34. RB Devonta Freeman, ATL

35. WR Brandin Cooks, LAR

36. WR Kenny Golladay, DET

Risk Factor

At a minimum, three players in this round stand out as risks.

Gurley has been a hotly debated player for months. A late-season knee injury lingered into the playoffs and limited him to only 14 carries for 45 yards and two receptions for two yards in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams went on to match an offer sheet for Malcolm Brown and selected explosive tailback Darrell Henderson in the third round of this year's draft. It's hard to take any of these moves as endorsements of the health of Gurley's knee. 

Williams comes into this season atop the Kansas City Chiefs' depth chart after he finished the final six weeks of 2018 as RB9 following the release of Kareem Hunt. Even though Williams finds himself in one of the NFL's best offenses, he'll enter his sixth year having never handled more than 50 carries or 32 targets in a single season. Projecting him as a top-15 back means massive jumps in his career highs in both categories. 

Unlike Ezekiel Elliott, Gordon's draft stock has taken a significant hit during his holdout. Elliott's ADP has held steady at 4.2/RB4, while Gordon slipped from a first-round pick to an ADP of 21.4/RB12. If Gordon remains dug in on his demands, the Los Angeles Chargers will likely open the season without him, thus making him unavailable to fantasy owners at least for Week 1. But if he gets a new deal or misses only one game, this third-round selection will turn into a great value.

Inside the Mind

Following my WR-WR start, the third round looked like the right time to grab my first running back. Getting Freeman in this spot was ideal, as I believe he can return to the RB1 tier he approached in 2017, especially with Tevin Coleman now a member of the San Francisco 49ers. Freeman is ranked as my RB15, so while I expected to get a player in the RB2 tier after opening with two WRs, I'm happy to get a player with RB1 upside.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

37. WR A.J. Green, CIN

38. WR Adam Thielen, MIN

39. TE Zach Ertz, PHI

40. QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

41. WR Chris Godwin, TB

42. WR Robert Woods, LAR

43. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC

44. RB James White, NE

45. RB David Montgomery, CHI

46. WR Tyler Boyd, CIN

47. RB Josh Jacobs, OAK

48. WR Cooper Kupp, LAR

You Should Love, L.A.

If you're surprised to see Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp all gone within the first four rounds, you might have a short memory. Through the first five weeks of last season, all three players ranked among the top 21 fantasy wide receivers, and both Kupp and Woods were inside the top 10. Kupp suffered an MCL sprain in Week 6 and eventually tore his ACL after returning from the MCL injury, which limited his season to only eight games. 

However, Kupp opened training camp on the active roster and hasn't had any setbacks. With Kupp healthy and Gurley's knee still somewhat in question, the Rams could be relying on their top three receivers even more, or at least until Gurley proves he can handle a similar workload to last season.

Inside the Mind

My Ertz selection is simply about taking the best player available. While I have Ertz ranked behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle at tight end, he's clearly ahead of the next tier of TEs. Knowing I already had two top WRs and not loving what was available at RB, Ertz made the most sense as the top option in an Eagles offense that should be even better in 2019.

Gail Burton/Associated Press

49. WR Tyler Lockett, SEA

50. WR Allen Robinson, CHI

51. WR D.J. Moore, CAR

52. WR Calvin Ridley, ATL

53. WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI

54. WR Corey Davis, TEN

55. WR Christian Kirk, ARI

56. WR Robby Anderson, NYJ

57. WR Mike Williams, LAC

58. RB Mark Ingram II, BAL

59. TE Evan Engram, NYG

60. WR Jarvis Landry, CLE

Making the Jump?

The fifth round is a good snapshot of players coming off strong performances who can make an even bigger jump this season.

Lockett now tops the WR depth chart in Seattle following Doug Baldwin’s retirement. He was WR16 last season and should garner far more than the 17.5 percent target share he had in 2018.

Moore was the top fantasy WR for the Carolina Panthers last year and had a strong second half of the season as WR23 from Weeks 7-17. In addition to having another year of development under his belt, Moore will also have a healthy Cam Newton throwing him the ball following offseason shoulder surgery. More is a solid WR2 with upside.

The Los Angeles Chargers let Tyrell Williams escape via free agency, which opens the door for Mike Williams to take a step forward in his third season. He finished as the WR32 after tallying 664 yards and 10 touchdowns on only 43 receptions. With Tyrell vacating a 12.8 percent target share, Mike should be able to make up for any touchdown regression. However, the Chargers also get tight end Hunter Henry back after he missed the 2018 regular season, so that target share may be splintered.

Inside the Mind

When I took two WRs in the first three round of previous drafts this year, I've made Ingram a target in the fourth round knowing he's a rock-solid RB2. I considered taking Ingram instead of Ertz in the fourth round, but I decided to go with the best player on the board. Much to my surprise, Ingram was still available in Round 5.

Ingram is in line for heavy volume as the new lead back for the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson entering his first full season as the starter. In 2018, Baltimore ranked second in rushing yards and first in rushing attempts. Ingram is in an ideal fantasy situation as a talented player stepping into a huge workload.  

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

61. TE O.J. Howard, TB

62. RB Derrick Henry, TEN

63. TE Hunter Henry, LAC

64. RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN

65. QB Deshaun Watson, HOU

66. RB Kenyan Drake, MIA

67. WR Marvin Jones, DET

68. WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

69. WR Curtis Samuel, CAR

70. WR Dede Westbrook, JAC

71. WR Josh Gordon, NE

72. WR Sammy Watkins, KC

Thinning Out

Both the running back and wide receiver positions are starting to thin out in terms of players you'd confidently insert into your lineup on a weekly basis. Derrick Henry slipping to the sixth round is somewhat surprising, although that may be a result of the calf injury that kept him sidelined from the beginning of training camp until he returned Monday, according to Jim Wyatt of Titans Online.

Wide receiver isn't as bad, although you'll need to have faith in players that came off the board in this round. Sanders is attempting to return from a torn Achilles, so this may be somewhat of a reach. Westbrook is a talented player who projects as a decent fantasy WR3 with the hope Nick Foles can boost the Jacksonville Jaguars passing game. If Gordon stays on the field, he's a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Inside the Mind

My pick of Hunter Henry is all about playing to the format. Even though my roster has a top-three tight end in Zach Ertz, I have two flex spots to fill. Henry was the best player left on my board, so instead of overthinking it, I grabbed another top-six tight end to fill a spot in my starting lineup. Remember, it doesn't matter where the points come from in your starting lineup. If your flex spot is stronger than your RB2, who cares? Take advantage of flex spots.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

73. WR Will Fuller V, HOU

74. QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

75. TE Vance McDonald, PIT

76. RB Darrell Henderson, LAR

77. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

78. QB Matt Ryan, ATL

79. QB Baker Mayfield, CLE

80. WR Geronimo Allison, GB

81. RB Lamar Miller, HOU

82. RB Tevin Coleman, SF

83. RB Miles Sanders, PHI

84. WR N'Keal Harry, NE

RB3 = RB2?

This round includes a mini-quarterback run and a group of running backs who have a chance to outplay these draft spots. Henderson's value hinges on the health of Todd Gurley, so he's a bit of a wild card. However, Miller is clearly leading the way for the Houston Texans backfield. He finished last season as RB23 and did so with only 25 receptions, so the addition of Duke Johnson Jr. shouldn't hurt his role much, if at all. Sanders may lose some carries to Jordan Howard, but the rookie is the most talented back in Philadelphia.

Inside the Mind

Coleman has been one of my must-have players this season, and I nearly took him over Hunter Henry in Round 6. The San Francisco 49ers appear to have a crowded backfield, so expecting Coleman to separate himself from the pack may seem overly optimistic. However, Jerick McKinnon doesn't appear to be an immediate concern, as his ongoing knee issues could land him on injured reserve to open the season, per Matt Barrows of The Athletic. 

The excitement for Coleman stems from the last time he worked with Kyle Shanahan during the latter's tenure as offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons. During his second year under Shanahan in 2016, Coleman was RB19 in the same year Devonta Freeman was RB6. Shanahan left for the 49ers that offseason, but Coleman still finished RB22 with Freeman at RB13. With Freeman limited to two games this past season, Coleman wound up as RB18.

Even if you're concerned about the presence of Matt Breida, consider Coleman's history with Shanahan and the two-year, $8.5 million deal he signed this offseason. He's a no-brainer RB3, especially since there's plenty of evidence suggesting he can be a top-24 back this season.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

85. RB Sony Michel, NE

86. QB Andrew Luck, IND

87. QB Carson Wentz, PHI

88. WR Dante Pettis, SF

89. WR Donte Moncrief, PIT

90. RB Rashaad Penny, SEA

91. TE David Njoku, CLE

92. TE Jared Cook, NO

93. TE Delanie Walker, TEN

94. WR Courtland Sutton, DEN

95. WR Sterling Shepard, NYG

96. TE Eric Ebron, IND

TE Panic

The dividing line of TE1/TE2 tiers is up for debate. Njoku, Cook, Walker and Ebron could be reliable weekly options, but they're far from locks. Cook seems safe in his new home with the New Orleans Saints. While Ebron might not have another top-five season, he could still land in the top 10 even with some touchdown regression. Njoku's role for the Cleveland Browns may not be consistent with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. Walker is coming off a missed season and is 35. Oh, and Marcus Mariota is his quarterback.

Inside the Mind

With confidence in the rest of my starting lineup, I didn't feel the need to wait any longer for my quarterback. The injury concerns with Wentz won't go away until he gets through an entire season unscathed, yet he has top-three upside. In 2017, he averaged more fantasy points per game than any quarterback (minimum 10 games). 

Wentz is entering this season healthy and without limitation. Alshon Jeffery is healthy (and underrated). The team brought back DeSean Jackson and added a big red-zone target in J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Oh, and Wentz still has Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert making up the best tight end duo in the league. Plus, Miles Sanders is a massive upgrade over any of last year's running backs. Get Wentz and reap the benefits.

Justin Casterline/Getty Images

97. QB Cam Newton, CAR

98. RB Tarik Cohen, CHI

99. QB Kyler Murray, ARI

100. RB Devin Singletary, BUF

101. QB Jared Goff, LAR

102. WR DeSean Jackson, PHI

103. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB

104. WR Golden Tate, NYG

105. WR Michael Gallup, DAL

106. WR Devin Funchess, IND

107. WR Anthony Miller, CHI

108. QB Drew Brees, NO

Quarterback Patience Pays Off

I might be a big Wentz believer, but I'm also acknowledging the QB1 tier is deep yet again this season. Instead of using an early pick on Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson, the group in this round will provide reliable output. Newton's shoulder issues seem to be behind him. Goff's disappointing Super Bowl performance seems to be overshadowing his QB7 finish last season. Brees was QB8 for an offense that ranked sixth in rushing. Murray is somewhat risky, but he'll have plenty of volume on a team with a bad defense and has the bonus of being a rushing threat.

Inside the Mind

I don't love my pick of Funchess. I'd feel a lot better about him if we had more clarity about Andrew Luck's injury, yet those issues remain with the start of the regular season fast approaching. A healthy Luck is a significant quarterback upgrade for Funchess over Newton, and he posted a top-25 season in 2017 with Newton throwing him the ball. The Colts didn't have a true No. 2 wide receiver behind T.Y. Hilton last season, and Funchess can be that guy.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

109. RB Derrius Guice, WAS

110. RB Latavius Murray, NO

111. RB Austin Ekeler, LAC

112. RB Jordan Howard, PHI

113. RB Royce Freeman, DEN

114. RB Duke Johnson Jr., HOU

115. WR Tyrell Williams, OAK

116. RB Adrian Peterson, WAS

117. TE T.J. Hockenson, DET

118. RB Kalen Ballage, MIA

119. WR Keke Coutee, HOU

120. RB Nyheim Hines, IND

Find the Volume

Entering the double-digit rounds likely means addressing the top spots on your bench. Surprisingly, there's the potential for a lot of volume with the running backs on the board in this 10th round. 

Even though he may not completely replace Mark Ingram II, Murray should have an active role in the New Orleans Saints backfield as a compliment to Alvin Kamara. Kenyan Drake might lead the Miami Dolphins in targets, but Ballage might lead the team in carries, as there's room for both players to be solid contributors. The backfields for the Denver Broncos and Washington Redskins are a bit tougher to gauge, and roles could evolve during the season.

Inside the Mind

Being able to get Ekeler this late was a total surprise and a good example of not tying yourself to the results of mock drafts or ADP information. Ekeler sits at RB31/ADP 74.6, and that has only risen this preseason with the continued absence of Melvin Gordon. I wouldn't call Ekeler a must-have, but there's no way I'm passing up on him this late in the mock. 

While Ekeler might be the leading candidate to take on a bigger workload if Gordon's holdout bleeds into the regular season, he should maintain value when Gordon returns. In 2018, Ekeler finished as RB25 and was considered a reliable flex option even with Gordon in the lineup. Ekeler might have more value without Gordon, but he still has value with Gordon, too.

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Round 11

121. TE Austin Hooper, ATL

122. RB Matt Breida, SF

123. TE Trey Burton, CHI

124. RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT

125. RB Peyton Barber, TB

126. WR James Washington, PIT

127. RB Ronald Jones II, TB

128. WR Parris Campbell, IND

129. RB Justin Jackson, LAC

130. WR John Brown, BUF

131. RB Dion Lewis, TEN

132. TE Jack Doyle, IND

Round 12

133. WR D.K. Metcalf, SEA

134. RB LeSean McCoy, BUF

135. RB Chris Thompson, WAS

136. RB Jerick McKinnon, WAS

137. TE Mark Andrews, BAL

138. RB Carlos Hyde, KC

139. TE Jordan Reed, WAS

140. D/ST Bears

141. WR Deebo Samuel, SF

142. RB Alexander Mattison, MIN

143. RB Darwin Thompson, KC

144. RB Ito Smith, ATL

Round 13

145. RB Damien Harris, NE

146. WR Jamison Crowder, NYJ

147. QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

148. QB Russell Wilson, SEA

149. TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN

150. WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL

151. D/ST Jaguars

152. D/ST Ravens

153. RB C.J. Anderson, DET

154. RB Kareem Hunt, CLE

155. D/ST Rams

156. QB Sam Darnold, NYJ

Shoot Your Shot

There isn't a huge difference between the 11th and final rounds. While it's a time to build depth for your roster, these will also be the first players to cut when you inevitably hit the waiver wire at the beginning of the season. Don't stress out about missing with any of these picks. 

It also makes a lot more sense to take actual players in these rounds instead of defenses, which you can grab in either of the final two rounds. Going after a sleeper like Andrews is a much better investment than grabbing the Bears D/ST, especially since Chicago faces Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. We'll address my preferred defense in the next set of rounds.

Inside the Mind

Brown has been a regular target of mine in best ball formats, although I still like grabbing him in this redraft league. Josh Allen needs to improve his accuracy after posting a 52.8 completion percentage last season, but Brown is the most talented option in a passing game that lacks proven performers. Thompson gives me a good pass-catching back in an offense with arguably the worst receiving corps in football.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Round 14

157. RB Tony Pollard, DAL

158. TE Jimmy Graham, GB

159. WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN

160. WR Robert Foster, BUF

161. TE Greg Olsen, CAR

162. RB Justice Hill, BAL

163. QB Jameis Winston, TB

164. RB Mike Davis, CHI

165. QB Tom Brady, NE

166. RB Jamaal Williams, GB

167. TE Chris Herndon, NYJ

168. QB Dak Prescott, DAL

Round 15

181. D/ST Vikings

182. QB Philip Rivers, LAC

183. D/ST Cowboys

184. D/ST Browns

185. QB Josh Allen, BUF

186. TE Noah Fant, DEN

187. D/ST Chargers

188. RB Brian Hill, ATL

189. D/ST Texans

190. D/ST Colts

191. D/ST Saints

192. D/ST Broncos

Round 16

193. K Greg Zuerlein, LAR

194. K Justin Tucker, BAL

195. K Stephen Gostkowski, NE

196. K Harrison Butker, KC

197. K Wil Lutz, NO

198. K Matt Prater, DET

199. K Mason Crosby, GB

200. K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU

201. K Brett Maher, DAL

202. K Jake Elliott, PHI

203. K Michael Badgley, LAC

204. K Graham Gano, CAR

Consider Week 1

Make a point to wait until the final two rounds to find your defense and kicker. You can stream those positions with success throughout the season, so there's no need to commit to anything more than you have to in your draft.  

Consider Week 1 the beginning of your streaming plan and draft accordingly. Pick out the Week 1 matchups you like the best for defenses and kickers and target them. Don't feel like you need to be tied to either position for more than a week unless the matchups remain favorable after Week 1.

Inside the Mind

The Cowboys defense should be a target for those of you who plan on streaming all season, which is the right strategy for a position that has so much fantasy production tied to matchups. Dallas faces the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins to open the season, so you should be able to stick with the Cowboys confidently over the first three weeks and move on when they face the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Carson Wentz

RB: Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram II

WR: Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Devin Funchess

TE: Zach Ertz

FLEX: Hunter Henry, Tevin Coleman

D/ST: Cowboys

K: Jake Elliott

Bench

QB: None

RB: Austin Ekeler, Chris Thompson, Kareem Hunt

WR: John Brown, DaeSean Hamilton

TE: Henry (drafted as flex)

Final Thoughts

Even with two wide receivers to lead off my draft, the balance is quite nice across the board. I'm admittedly weak at my third wide receiver spot with Funchess, but I make up for that with a pair of wide receivers who are among the best at the position.  

I expected to be out of my RB1 tier for my first back, so there's no issue with Freeman leading my backfield stable, especially since he can wind up as a top-12 option. Having three RB2-type players for three running back spots isn't a bad thing, especially with the volume I expect to get from Ingram.

Ertz will be an advantage over almost every team at tight end, and Henry provides an excellent option as a flex player. Plus, pairing Wentz with Ertz is a nice stack with Ertz coming off a record-setting season with the most receptions ever for a tight end. 

My depth is fine and outside of Ekeler, I'd have no problem moving on from any of my bench players to hit the waiver wire, which isn't a bad thing.