NFL Predictions 2019: Projecting Teams with Most-Improved Win Totals

For some teams, a vast improvement in the win column only takes one offseason. Typically, the return of a key player, especially a quarterback, dramatically changes a franchise's short-term outlook.

The Houston Texans and Chicago Bears saw a seven-win increase between the 2017-18 seasons and won their divisions last year.

Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson played a full 16-game slate after tearing his ACL midway through the 2017 campaign. Defensive end J.J. Watt reverted to All-Pro form after struggling with injuries in 2015 and 2016. He recorded 16 sacks and seven forced fumbles for a defense that ranked fourth in scoring.

Chicago hired head coach Matt Nagy, traded for edge-rusher Khalil Mack and surrounded quarterback Mitchell Trubisky with new pass-catching options, wideouts Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel along with tight end Trey Burton.   

Who's going to take a big leap forward after a disappointing 2018 campaign? Let's take a look at three teams set for a bounce-back year.

Atlanta Falcons

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In 2018, the injury bug didn't just bite the Atlanta Falcons—it feasted on key players.

Running back Devonta Freeman suited up for two games and eventually landed on injured reserve with a groin problem. Safeties Keanu Neal (ACL tear) and Ricardo Allen (torn Achilles) went down with season-ending ailments within three weeks. Linebacker Deion Jones missed 10 contests because of a foot injury.

Head coaches don't use injuries as an excuse, but the Falcons couldn't overcome major losses on both sides of the ball. Damontae Kazee performed well in a bigger role at safety, but the overall talent drop-off hurt this team, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.

Last year, Atlanta's defense ranked 25th in scoring and 28th in yards allowed. Head coach Dan Quinn expects Neal and Allen to return to action this summer. After snagging eight interceptions last year, Kazee will handle nickelback responsibilities, replacing Brian Poole.

In Freeman's absence, Ito Smith played quality snaps as the No. 2 running back behind Tevin Coleman, who departed for San Francisco. Now paired with Freeman, the duo should produce under new-old offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter whose offense ranked eighth twice with the Falcons in 2012 and 2014.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has arguably the strongest trio at wide receiver, featuring Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu—all three recorded at least 60 receptions and 800 yards last year.

With a healthy defense and an electric passing attack, the Falcons win the NFC South in 2019. 

2018 record: 7-9

2019 prediction: 11-5

New York Jets

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The New York Jets bottomed out under Todd Bowles, going 4-12 and repeating mistakes resulting in penalties and missed defensive assignments that led to big plays. Gang Green's defense ranked 29th in scoring and 25th in yards allowed in 2018.

The front office took an offensive approach, hiring head coach Adam Gase to develop quarterback Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft. The Jets fired general manager Mike Maccagnan in May. To make matters worse, he and the team's new lead skipper reportedly butt heads on roster decisions. 

According to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, Gase didn't want to pay a high price for a running back and balked at the financial investment in linebacker C.J. Mosley, who signed a five-year, $85 million deal.

Despite the friction, turnover in the front office and Gase's reluctance to pay premium free agents, the roster talent will overcome offseason turmoil. Unless the Jets trade running back Le'Veon Bell and Mosley, both will become key factors in this squad's improvement in the upcoming season. 

Darnold can lean on Bell in the short passing game, which may cut down on his erratic throws downfield, dropping his interception count. He can also hand off to the two-time All-Pro running back who's averaging 4.3 yards per carry for his career and accustomed to handling a big workload.

On the perimeter, wideout Robby Anderson could take another step forward with more targets in the passing attack. He's confident the new coaching staff will feature him in the offense, per Brian Costello of the New York Post.

"You know that you should be at least a 10-targets-a-game receiver because you know the impact you have on the game and that's not given to you," Anderson said. "You've proven that. Now, I have a coach that's going to utilize me as a player and not just make me run straight down the field." 

Mosley will serve as the centerpiece for Gregg Williams' defense. He's not a speedy coverage linebacker, but the 27-year-old can reach his spots in shallow areas to defend against the pass. He's rock-solid moving downhill to strike ball-carriers and pressure the pocket. The four-time Pro Bowler has 398 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 35 pass breakups and nine interceptions in five seasons.

Up front, in the trenches, Leonard Williams and Quinnen Williams—assuming he eventually signs his rookie deal—should improve the Jets' 26th-ranked run defense.

In a weak division with three teams, including the Jets going through early rebuild stages, the talent should propel Gang Green to a .500 record.

2018 record: 4-12 

2019 prediction: 8-8

San Francisco 49ers 

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The San Francisco 49ers hope to see quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo back on the field for the upcoming season. Last year, in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs, he tore his ACL, which limited the team's offense. Still, the passing attack finished 15th in yards with C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens at the helm.

Garoppolo will have a pass-catching group stacked with young talent, including Dante Pettis along with rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, who were selected in the second and third rounds, respectively. Tight end George Kittle emerged as a Pro Bowler with 88 catches for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns last year.

In addition to Garoppolo's return, the 49ers have an underrated running back stable that's not earning enough praise. Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida can all run and catch out of the backfield, making it hard for defenses to predict run or pass on any given down. 

The 49ers rushing offense ranked 13th with Breida and Alfred Morris handling the bulk of the carries. With Coleman and McKinnon in the backfield, this group should rank top five in yards from scrimmage.

Defensively, the 49ers have holes on the back end with two injury-prone safeties in Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt coupled with a question mark at cornerback opposite Richard Sherman. However, a revamped pass rush featuring Dee Ford and rookie defensive end Nick Bosa will shorten the pocket time for quarterbacks looking to dissect the secondary. 

2018 record: 4-12

2019 prediction: 9-7