Buffalo Bills Midseason Analysis

Eight games down, eight games to go. We have now reached the halfway point of the season, and now with a convenient bye week at hand, we are primed to assess how the Buffalo Bills have performed so far in their 50th Anniversary season.

With a 3-5 record on the books, and sitting alone at the bottom of the AFC East Division, the team will be heading in to their bye week vacation with the bitter taste of defeat and a second half collapse at home in dropping a game to the Houston Texans that they led for the first three quarters.

Coaching

This is Dick Jauron's team. Make no mistake about it. Dick Jauron is the guy that told Turk Schoenert that he was coming up with an offensive scheme that was too confusing and too complicated, so Turk was fired and booted off the team just before the season began.

Too confusing for who exactly Coach Jauron? For you personally? As a former NFL safety for Detroit Lions back in the 1970's and a former Defensive Coordinator, it was probably a good thing that Schoenert tried to be creative and come up with elaborate schemes for the modern NFL.

Eight weeks later, I think it is safe to say that the proof is in the pudding. On his way out the door, Schoenert complained that Jauron wanted a plain, simple vanilla offense. A Mickey Mouse attack. Well, for everyone that has been following the Bills this year, I think it is safe to say that Jauron got his wish.

The glaring problem is that this offense is as simple as it gets. Simple is as simple does. It is very easy for opponents to create a defensive scheme against the Bills.

What is sad is that our troops are going out there to battle every week and they have limited resources in their arsenal to counter what the defense is doing to them. The opponents have two hundreds rounds of ammunition and we have ten.

It is for this very basic fundamental flaw in Jauron's coaching philosophy and judgement that he needs to be relieved as the head coach. He has not been able to make adjustments on the fly to stay ahead of his competition.

Houston coach Gary Kubiak made adjustments at half time that led to the victory in the second half. Maybe he was able to adjust due to his prior quarterback experience as a player. It was hard to distinguish what adjustments the Bills made at halftime, if any.

Jauron can join the ranks of prior Bills head coaches Mike Mularkey and Gregg Williams and return to a job he is suited for as a coordinator for some other team. Jauron came on board due to the recommendation of Marv Levy. Because of my respect for Marv, I personally endorsed the decision. But that was then, and this is now.

Next Head Coach?

Was watching a UFL game this past week on TV, which featured JP Losman as the quarterback and his opposing coach was ex-Buffalo Bill Jim Haslett, the former New Orleans Saints head coach. Haslett is somebody I could get behind as the next Bills coach. There is another ex-Bills player with head coaching experience that I have wondered about, namely Marty Schottenheimer.

Both of them are fiery personality types and have enjoyed various degrees of success as a head coach. I just have grown tired of the passive Jauron style. He does not appear to be the right style or personality for a game that requires so much passion and aggression.

I think that if the Bills owner Ralph Wilson ever decides during the season that enough is enough, he will relieve Jauron and turn the reigns over to the assistant head coach Bobby April. The only problem with that scenario, is that April will be viewed as more of a threat to the next head coach that comes in. He might want April off of his staff, to make sure he maintains control of the team.

We will pick up the head coach talk later on, so for now I want to focus on the team and the players.

TEAM PSYCHE

The Bills give everything they have to give each week. There is no quit in them, and anybody that really watches the games knows that they play hard. But I wonder if they have a mental block about playing at home. Going 1-8 in their last nine home games is just plain ridiculous.

The Bills seem to play better football on the road than they do at home. They have less penalties on the road, and seem to be a more composed team. Maybe the booing they get at home bothers them more than we know.

Maybe playing a home game in Toronto is not such a bad thing after all. Until I see another convincing win at home I am going to be concerned about every game being played in Orchard Park.

I don't know what the pre-game rituals are for home games, but maybe that needs to be looked at as well; similar to ditching the elaborate offensive scheme, to calling plays from the press box, to ditching the no-huddle, etc. etc.


OFFENSE
The Bills offense has gone the way of the Black Hole. It is out there somewhere in the universe, but it is not known if it will ever be discovered or found again.

Running Backs

I am amazed that the Bills brain trust did not see how great Freddy Jackson excelled as the starting running back during the three game suspension of Marshawn Lynch. He was easily the Bills best weapon on the field, and they have basically iced him out of the game planning as soon as Marshawn came back to the team.

Putting him in as a kick returning replacement for Roscoe Parrish made sense for one game, possibly to send a message to Roscoe, but is this the way it is going to be for the rest of the year? If you don't believe Parrish can help you on special teams, then at least let Freddy come in and be the third down back for pass catching situations. Lynch does not get the job done as a pass catcher and had another crucial drop on a third down against Houston.

With respect to Marshawn Lynch, his act appears to be getting old. His beast mode is not really doing anything very frightening. Rather than hit a hole and take what he can he dances behind the line of scrimmage and takes a loss. He hot-dogged his way in to the end zone for his only touchdown of the year.

Lynch was flagged for holding trying to pick up a blitzer when the Bills were trying to rally in the second half. When was the last time he had any kind of a long run?

Corey McIntyre was recently injured and we don't know how long he will be out yet. There has not been any word on finding a FB replacement for him, but the prospect of seeing both Jackson and Lynch in the same backfield did not materialize on Sunday but that would require the Bills to do something creative. What was I thinking anyway? 

Offensive Line

The offensive line is gaining valuable experience and will be better when the next head coach takes over. As the line goes, so goes the Bills. For the rest of this year, I don't envy whoever plays quarterback each week, as they are sure to be absorbing a pounding.

After losing Brad Butler for the year and then seeing Jamon Meredith go down with a knee sprain, the talent level drops off significantly. Jonathan Scott is still unable to practice due to his injuries. I would like to think the Bills are bringing a number of free agents during the bye week to try to find an adequate replacement at tackle.

If Chambers starts again in week ten, then you know the organization threw in the towel on the season. Is Jon Runyan that bad that he couldn't sign on for the final half of the season?

Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, and Demetrius Bell are all suffering their growing pains together. Each of them have been beaten by more experienced defensive lineman, but this baptism can only make them better. Jamon Meredith could be included in this group as well, but if the Bills do land a top flight tackle in the draft next year, I wouldn't mind having Bell and Meredith as the backup lineman, assuming that Butler comes back healthy.

Quarterbacks

Regarding the quarterback, I suspect that Trent Edwards will be under center in week ten against Tennessee. If he gets hurt or suffers another concussion during the final eight weeks, I imagine that the Bills will turn to Gibran Hamdan to see what he can do. A Ryan Fitzpatrick-led-offense was pretty brutal and he proved not to be the answer.

While Fitzpatrick did his best to show that the ball can be thrown to the wide receivers, it is not a given yet that Trent Edwards will do the same. I am sure he observed what was going on while he was on the sidelines, but if he comes in and starts throwing passes to his check-down receivers more than half the time, then he didn't learn a thing.

At least Albert Hayneworth is still not part of the Titans defense. That would have been ugly and Trent probably wouldn't have made it through the entire game.

WIDE RECEIVERS

With respect to the wide receivers, I suspect that we will see a mixed bag of stuff over the final eight weeks. From the first eight weeks, there have been a few flashes of talent, but overall this unit has been under-utilized in the vanilla offensive scheme. Sure there have been a number of drops, most notably from Terrell Owens, but overall this is a group that doesn't get the ball thrown to them enough.

Josh Reed has exhibited his usual steady hands and dependable play when called upon.

T.O. did have the nice end-around reverse for a touchdown last week. He had the long pass against Tampa Bay. Two highlights out of eight weeks of football? T.O. has kept his mouth quiet for the most part, and has not caused any major scenes so far.

As the temperature continues to drop as we work our way through November and in to December, I wonder how T.O. will do in frigid conditions. Will he be howling with the wind?

He has not ruled out coming back next year, but I would prefer to see an incentive laden contract where he is paid according to his performance. Handing him six million? No way.

Lee Evans continues to be the main weapon through the air. I suspect that Trent will be focusing on him in the second half of the season. I suspect that James Hardy will come off the P.U.P. list and be seeing some action as well.

Hardy could really use some game experience to develop into something useful. So far he has not lived up to his second round selection and really needs as much game experience as the Bills can afford to give to him.

Roscoe Parrish has been inactive for multiple games, and there is no word yet if he will ever be activated again. Parrish continues to mystify by his poor decisions as to when to field punts. Disdaining a fair catch at the ten or twelve has often led to starting drives at our own one, two or three yard line.

Stevie Johnson had plenty of promise and was a fantasy sleeper coming in to the season, but is another receiver that is mysteriously absent from the stat line. Time to wake up Stevie.

Tight Ends

Many people thought Shawn Nelson was going to take over this position by the halfway mark of the season. When Derek Schouman went down for the year with an injury, the job was Nelson's to run with.

Well, he did score a touchdown in week one against the Patriots. But injuries have kept him off the field for most of the season. His concussion has turned in to bad migraine headaches
and we can only hope that he will get back on the field soon.

Nelson does have potential, and right now the Bills desperately need every weapon they can muster to have a chance. Derek Fine and Jonathan Stupar have basically contributed next to nothing.

DEFENSE

This unit is a dichotomy if there ever was one. The secondary play has vaulted the Bills in to the lead of the NFL for interceptions, while the same defense is dead last in rushing yardage. This unit has been on the field too long and had to stop more than one hundred extra plays.

Is it any wonder they are so banged up? Nine of the eleven starters have missed time so far this year due to injuries. No other team comes even close to that much diversity.

Defensive Line

Aaron Schobel injured his groin last Sunday, so we are awaiting word on how long he will be out. Schobel has had a fine season so far. He has come back strong from his foot problems of last year.

Chris Kelsay has had a relatively solid season, as has Marcus Stroud. They have put decent pressure on QB's throughout the season and that has been instrumental in the high number of interceptions the Bills have created.

Kyle Williams is also injured, and we are awaiting word on the severity of his injury. He has been very consistent and a stalwart in the trenches.

This past Sunday, Aaron Maybin seemed to be involved in more chances for plays than in any other previous game this season. Whoever he tried to tackle, they continued to run through his arms like they weren't there.

Maybin's lack of strength and poor tackling skills were on display and it wasn't very pretty. He has a much further road to travel to be a top talent than I imagined. He needs to drive his body through the guy with the ball and punish him. It almost looks like he is afraid to really hit somebody with his body. Clearly he is a work in progress.

Linebackers

What a mash unit. Paul Posluszny gone with a broken arm, then back. Kawicka Mitchell gone for the year with an injury. Marcus Buggs gone for the year with an injury. Now Keith Ellison, one of the leading tacklers in the NFL, goes down on Sunday, and did not return.

Nick Harris finally got some extended reps in at linebacker last week, and he showed some aggressive play. I would like to see the Bills use him more over the second half of the season. Chris Draft has been okay, but he was also blown out in the second half along with Posluszny for big gains by the Texans' line.

Keith Ellison has been pretty dependable for the year and hopefully he will be back soon. The Bills need him to stabilize the linebacking group with Mitchell gone and maybe the two weeks off will result in the Bills adding another free agent linebacker to the group.

Defensive Secondary

Jairus Byrd. What a find the Bills came up with in round two. He has been all that he was advertised to be and more. Seven interceptions in his last four games. I know he needs to work on his tackling against the run, and he isn't the most physically imposing specimen. But he flat out has a nose for the football, and that is something that doesn't automatically come with the territory.

George Wilson has been a pleasant surprise. He has turned in some solid play at the other safety spot. Bryan Scott has been out so long that he will have to shake off some major rust when he comes back.

Terrance McGee has been solid and showed some of the old wheels on his one kick off return. Maybe the Bills should consider giving him a few more returns when they need a lift.
 
It is a shame that Leodis McKelvin will largely be remembered in his second season for his fumble on Monday Night Football against the Patriots. He was truly coming on in the second half last year and his early season ending injury has certainly derailed whatever progress he was making.

Reggie Corner has been decent but had a rough outing last Sunday. Drayton Florence has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Donte Whitner had an early touchdown but has been injured as of late. Would like to see him come back and have a big second half.

Overall, this unit has excelled at defending the pass, creating turnovers, and giving up big chunks of yards against the ground game.

Special Teams

Group has seen steady play from both their kickers - as Brian Moorman and Rian Lindell have had strong seasons.

The returners have fumbled away two games, and have yet to return a kick for a touchdown. Fred Jackson had the Bills first seventy yard return of the season against Houston and has done a nice job.

The gunners and other special teams cast has been overall ineffective. Too many penalties on special teams play, and failure to down punts inside the five yard line when they have had chances.

We did have some great plays out of special teams on occasion, but we have come to expect that. Maybe we have been spoiled by the excellence of the special teams play in recent years and have come to expect that as normal.

What to expect in the final eight weeks?

If the Bills come out of the bye week and are able to put any kind of a winning streak together (based on the weakness or strength of schedule) than expect Jauron to retain his job to see this thing through to the bitter end. That means going with his veterans and the plain offense for the duration.

If however the Bills lose two or three straight and are eliminated from any playoff consideration, Ralph will need to save face in the community and do something, as the Cleveland Browns did this week.

If Jauron goes, then expect to see a little more free substitution and chance for untested players like James Hardy, Shawn Nelson, Nick Harris and Jamon Meredith to see more game action to determine how good they are. Maybe even some Gibran Hamdan as well.

There is clearly a core group that has talent. They just need the right people in the front office, a head coach with vision and the belief in his system, and they will be okay. At least I keep telling myself that. What do you think?