BCS Predictions: What Can the Iowa Hawkeyes Do to Leap Texas?

I've already accused Iowa of being the luckiest team in college football. Now I'd like to argue the opposite: What's with the lack of love for the Hawkeyes?

They've had the hardest schedule of any of the other seven undefeateds. Their away games at Penn State (BCS No. 11, 8-1 overall), Iowa State (5-4 overall), Michigan State (3-3 in the Big Ten), and Wisconsin (BCS No. 21, 6-2 overall) have been brutal, but they've managed to survive in each.

Their home schedule has been no walk in the park, with games against Northern Iowa (the cream of the I-AA crop), Arizona (BCS No. 18, 5-2 overall), and 4-1 Michigan before they'd completely regressed into the 2008 version of themselves.

Now, an away game at Ohio State awaits to wrap up the season.

Let's compare their schedule to the current No. 2 BCS team, the Texas Longhorns.

Iowa's best win, No. 11 Penn State, is greater than No. 18 Oklahoma State. Their second best win, Arizona, is superior to Texas's win over Oklahoma (and Iowa won in dominating fashion, 27-17, allowing only eight first downs). Their third- and fourth-best wins (Wisconsin and Iowa State) at least equal Texas' home win against Texas Tech and road win at Missouri.

Sure, they didn't win pretty against Indiana, but neither did Texas against Colorado. And Iowa's win over Penn State actually was rather endearing, for those who prefer close defensive struggles, blocked punts and game-sealing interceptions.

So what do they have to do to leap Texas?

That's easy. They need to absolutely blow out the No. 16 Buckeyes in the Horseshoe on Nov. 14.

Texas doesn't have another gaudy game on their schedule save for the Big 12 championship game, which hasn't been close, or relevant, since Kansas State beat Oklahoma in 2003. Without another big-time win, only sympathy is on their side—and sympathies can change from week to week.

Iowa still has time to endear themselves to the human voters. Their Big Ten game against Ohio State remains.

That means they have the opportunity to inflict the same kind of jaw-dropping damage that Oregon inflicted on the BCS darling USC Trojans in their 47-20 romp last week. They can make it look like their team and the other team shouldn't even be in the same stadium, or conference.

They could take the kind of fourth quarter they had against Indiana, where the Hawkeyes scored 28 straight points to beat the Hoosiers, 42-24, after trailing for most of the game, and have it in the first quarter against Ohio State.

They could step out of their comfort zone and win with style.

They could, but they won't—at least not on offense. That's not Kirk Ferentz's MO. Style equates to risk, risk equates to danger, and Ferentz is the Pontiac Aztek dealer of wins—he doesn't care if they're ugly, as long as they get from point A to point B.

But if the defense can shut down the Buckeyes and make Terrelle Pryor look like the uncoached turnover machine he did against Purdue, there's a chance the human voters recognize that Iowa is fielding one of the most complete and well-coached defensive units in college football—and they can make a strong case that that defense can beat anyone in the country.

I have every reason to believe they can and will win that way. Their defensive line, anchored by future All-Conference players Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns and Karl Klug, should destroy the Buckeye offensive line, which has struggled to gel due to inexperience and injuries.

The linebacking corps should shut down Ohio State's Power-O running game, which has struggled to replace Beanie Wells with the more undersized and less dynamic Brandon Saine and Boom Herron.

The secondary can and will pick Pryor like a 12-string Gibson once he's forced to throw to the depleted wide receiving corps on third and long.

It will take some effort from Ricky Stanzi and the resurgent Iowa receiving corps. Marvin McNutt and Darrell Johnson-Koulianos will need to showcase some speed, and Iowa will have to do a better job replacing injured RB Adam Robinson.

But if you have the ball for 40 out of the 60 minutes, and the other 20 minutes are showcasing your defensive dominance, there's a good chance lightning will strike once or twice, right?

With a close win at Ohio Stadium, Iowa probably still lingers in the middle of the pack. They need one more defining moment, preferably one that doesn't include four Stanzi interceptions in the third quarter.

But if they win big, no résumé could possibly stack up to Iowa's, least of all Texas'.

Ohio State could do their part by beating Penn State this weekend and raising the stakes. Arizona could also pull their weight by beating either USC or Oregon and making that win look even better.

But with big wins over the three Big Ten runners-up on the road, a non-conference win over Arizona, a Pac-10 challenger, and a dominant effort to close out the season, that sounds like a championship team to me.