The Biggest Red Flags in the 2019 NFL Free-Agent Class

Free agency is an exciting period during the NFL offseason, as it peddles hope for every fanbase that their new signing will be a smashing success. The reality, however, is many big-name free agents are looking for a job for a reason. 

As such, some players who appear exciting are actually gambles. Whether it's because of injury, niche scheme fit or market forces that cause an overpay, several free agents carry red flags heading into Wednesday's start of the new league year. 

Teams can be excited about signing such players, but they need to understand the inherent risk. More often than not, free-agent signings with clear warning signs don't deliver on their potential.  

Nick Foles, Quarterback

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Quarterbacks are generally high-risk free-agent signings. Teams seldom let capable signal-callers walk, so when a competent one does hit the market, their value gets inflated.

Nick Foles, 30, is exiting a unique situation with the Philadelphia Eagles. He was a valuable fill-in for Carson Wentz over the past two seasons, but the Eagles shouldn't pay a backup starter's money.

The concern for prospective suitors should be Foles' inconsistency. Nobody can take away his 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception season in 2013 or his 2017 Super Bowl run, but the rest of his career is filled with question marks.

The lows from 2014 to 2016 are worrisome. Over that three-year stretch, Foles averaged an unremarkable 6.6 yards per attempt over 703 throws for three teams. Additionally, most of his second run in Philadelphia was mediocre outside the 2017 playoffs and was statistically on par with his lows from 2014 to 2016.

In many cases, the appeal of a veteran quarterback is a team knows what it's paying for. The veteran should provide a consistent level of play—even if there are clear limitations or flaws to his skill set. Foles doesn't do that. 

Any team that signs him to be a starter will fight against the odds in thinking it can replicate and sustain his peaks.      

Editor's note: On Monday, Foles reportedly agreed to a four-year, $88 million contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.  

Anthony Barr, Outside Linebacker

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For a brief period, Anthony Barr had a case as the league's best outside linebacker. His combination of speed, aggressive processing and outstanding coverage ability made for the perfect modern 'backer. No one could match his ability to succeed in space.

He's lost a step in the past couple of seasons, though. Many speculated nagging injuries led to Barr's 2016-2017 drop-off. He was resurgent in 2018, but he still wasn't the same. Barr, 26, was far above replacement level during all three seasons, but the hyper-aggression and playmaking ability that made him a star in 2015 wasn't there to the same degree.

To complicate matters, it appears Barr wants to go back to pass-rushing. He got to flash those skills a bit more than usual in 2018 but was still primarily used as a traditional outside linebacker.

Barr was a pass-rusher at UCLA but never played that role full time with Mike Zimmer's Vikings. Barr's initial conversion made sense, considering he would have been a light pass-rusher (6'5", 255 lbs) who could have been bullied by NFL offensive tackles.

For a team to take on Barr and convert him to a pass-rusher is a massive risk, especially considering he will fetch a pretty penny. Not only is he five years removed from being a true pass-rusher, but he'll still be light for the position.

Paying Barr top dollar to be a pass-rusher in 2019 is an all-or-nothing swing.    

Za'Darius Smith, Outside Linebacker

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A general rule of free agency is to never sign ex-Baltimore Ravens defenders. For years, the team assembled unique defenses that catered to unorthodox players.

Pernell McPhee, for example, was an excellent edge/5-technique hybrid in 2014, but he struggled to find his footing after he left Baltimore in 2015. The same could be said of any number of former Ravens defenders throughout the John Harbaugh era. 

Though not exactly the same as McPhee, Za'Darius Smith occupies a similar space. The 27-year-old Smith was an effective pocket-pusher and cleanup guy for coordinator Don Martindale's defense. He's neither a true edge-rusher nor a hand-in-the-dirt defensive end, but his strength and relentless style provided a skill set that the Ravens made good use of.

Not only did he occupy a niche role, but Smith also didn't produce enough until his final season in Baltimore. He racked up 10 sacks and 27 quarterback hits through his first three years combined but skyrocketed to 8.5 sacks and in 25 quarterback hits in 2018 alone. He summoned the contract-year boost that many pass-rushers often do.

Some team will be tricked into thinking Smith's production uptick is legitimate development rather than a well-timed statistical anomaly. It's likely he'll return to a three- or four-sack-per-year average.

C.J. Mosley, Linebacker

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A football player's decline is often swift. With how physically demanding the sport is, it's all too common for a guy to experience a seemingly minor setback and hit a wall, failing to return to their former glory. For C.J. Mosley, however, the decline has been steady.

For clarity's sake, Mosley is still a good linebacker. Rather, the 26-year-old Mosley was a dominant force early in his career but has since devolved closer to above average. The range he once showed in coverage, for instance, is not there like it was in 2015 or 2016. Mosley has also provided less production as a playmaker. His interception totals have slipped over the past three seasons, and he has not recorded more than one sack since 2015, when he recorded four. 

Of course, "above average" would be a welcome addition for many teams. The concerns are more that Mosley's career is not trending in the right direction and his style of play—one that relies on smarts to make up for middling athletic ability—could quickly fall apart if he continues to lose explosiveness. 

Mosley is unlikely to be an outright failure given his pedigree, but he is a prime candidate to end up underperforming relative to the value of his contract. Such is the curse of former Ravens defenders.

Ezekiel Ansah, Defensive End

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There's no blaming the Detroit Lions for ridding themselves of Ezekiel Ansah's inconsistency. A once-promising pass-rusher with 30 total sacks in his first three seasons from 2013 to 2015, Ansah has been all over the board in terms of production since.

The issue is health. The 29-year-old battled through a 2016 ankle injury for 13 games, resulting in just two sacks. The following year featured a healthier Ansah and 12 sacks, but the revival was short-lived.

He suffered a shoulder setback that sidelined him for nine games in 2018. In the seven contests he played, Ansah put up four sacks, but his uncertain availability and the questions over whether he can keep up his pace made it easy for the Lions to move on.

As such, teams that may pay Ansah to be a featured pass-rusher should be wary. He's typically won with great speed and power through the arc, but if his body is constantly deteriorating, Ansah could suddenly be incapable of playing the same style. Couple that with the likelihood he won't play a full 16 games, and you have a good case to steer clear of him unless he can be had at a discount.

Tyrann Mathieu, Defensive Back

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Signing Tyrann Mathieu to a one-year deal last offseason was the right move for the Houston Texans. He struggled through injuries for a few years with the Arizona Cardinals, and the Texans gave him a chance at redemption in an attempt to fix their secondary. Mathieu was fine in 2018, but his performance on a one-year prove it deal was not convincing enough to get the Texans to bring him back.

Though productive in the box score, Mathieu was not the same player he'd been early in Arizona. ACL injuries stripped Mathieu's speed, quickness and nastiness as an open-field tackler to one degree or another. That's rendered him a poor-man's jack-of-all-trades rather than a scary defensive back who could thrive in the nickel just as well as in deep center field. In turn, Mathieu has failed to match the five interceptions and 11 tackles for loss he recorded in 2015. 

At this point, the 26-year-old is a known commodity. The Texans did the due diligence for the rest of the league by giving him a chance to prove himself as an elite defender again, but that player isn't there anymore.

Mathieu could still be of value to a team that's looking to retool its secondary, but he shouldn't be paid as a top-notch defensive back.

Danny Shelton, Defensive Tackle

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Anytime Bill Belichick parts ways with a defender, there shouldn't be a rush to sign that player. Belichick has proved time and again that he knows how to make certain guys and archetypes work for his defense. Seldom does a defender leave New England's tutelage and experience comparable success elsewhere.

Danny Shelton, 25, looks like an extreme case of this phenomenon. The Browns drafted him No. 12 in 2015, but he fizzled out before Belichick traded a fifth-round pick for him before the 2018 season.

However, Shelton wasn't featured in New England. His 31.06 percent of snaps played was the lowest among interior defensive linemen on the team, and he was even a healthy scratch down the stretch and for the AFC Championship Game.

Belichick used Shelton primarily as a run-defense specialist. New England had no issues keeping Shelton on the bench if that role wasn't needed. While that seems fairly intuitive, no coach pulls off that dynamic quite the way Belichick does.

In turn, whoever pays Shelton will get a decent run defender but will more than likely end up overworking him and not getting proper value out of him.

Jay Ajayi, Running Back

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Jay Ajayi's impact during the Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl run is undeniable. Once acquired via trade from the Miami Dolphins at the 2017 deadline, Ajayi erupted. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as he helped propel the Eagles to a playoff bye. His explosive rushing style was a deadly pairing with an offensive line that was firing on all cylinders.

Unfortunately, everything came to a screeching halt in 2018. Not only did Ajayi start much slower, but he suffered an ACL injury in Week 5. He has a history of knee issues, dating back to his days at Boise State, where he tore his ACL as a freshman in 2011.

The wear and tear on his body—both through knee injuries and a starting running back's workload—is concerning. Runners in general tend to taper off following their first contracts, and Ajayi's knee issues compound that issue. It's also telling that the Eagles are willing to part with him, given that the rest of their running back stable is lackluster.

Bringing in Ajayi, 26, as a legitimate starter would be betting he can overcome those health issues, which many running backs fail to do.

Tyler Eifert, Tight End

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Tyler Eifert encapsulates the tragedy of sports: All the talent in the world doesn't matter without good health.

In Eifert's best season, 2015, he played 13 games and was a red-zone machine. His 13 receiving touchdowns that year were the most in the league among tight ends and tied for third all-time for the most receiving touchdowns at the position in one season. Smooth speed and route running coupled with his 6'6", 255-pound frame made Eifert a matchup nightmare.

Unfortunately, 2015 was one of only two seasons in which the 26-year-old played more than eight games—the other being his 2013 rookie year. Eifert has played in just 15 contests during his other four seasons combined due to a slew of injuries that range from elbow issues to a broken ankle.

The potential Eifert could somehow rid himself of the injury bug is enticing. His possible value is further increased given how poor the rest of the free-agent tight end market is. The only real competition for Eifert is a 31-year-old Jared Cook, as well as even older options in Antonio Gates and Benjamin Watson, both 38.

If he reaches even 80 percent of his ceiling, he would be an upgrade for many teams. However, his injury history is too long and worrisome to bank on him as a reliable contributor.