Who Should Remain High on Boards Despite Disappointing at the NFL Combine?
The NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis has spawned into a mega-event in which onlookers fawn over exceptional athletes excelling in non-football drills.
Those workouts provide extra data points; they're not definitive predictors of success.
A year ago, offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. bumbled his way through one of the worst workouts anyone who follows the draft has ever seen. Nothing about the performance signaled an NFL-caliber player, let alone a future starter.
Yet, Brown started 10 games as a rookie for the Baltimore Ravens and didn't allow a single sack, according to Pro Football Focus (via Garrett Downing of the Ravens' official site).
"The OL position isn't easy to evaluate," Brown tweeted prior to the combine. "It's easy to turn to numbers because typically your best blockers are your best athletes. In my opinion, it's simple. OL is like a form of art. We all have different tools and abilities."
The young blocker's argument may be position-specific, but his point applies across the board: An understanding of an individual's skill set is more important than his testing numbers. Brown is merely the latest example of an athlete who tested poorly but whose combine performance didn't accurately reflect the caliber of player.
Combine measurements are a small part of the overall evaluation. Guys will disappoint in certain areas and go on to become great football players. This year's crop features multiple top-name performers who fell short in certain areas, but it will mean little regarding their overall draft projections.
CB Deandre Baker, Georgia
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A three-way race to become the top cornerback prospect ensued in Indianapolis, and Georgia's Deandre Baker performed the worst after LSU's Greedy Williams blazed a 4.37-second 40-yard dash and Washington's Byron Murphy had arguably the best position-specific workout.
The reigning Jim Thorpe Award winner didn't run well with a 4.52-second 40-yard dash. USA Today's Doug Farrar mentioned Baker wasn't "quite as prepared" for the event as he should have been. An average time could be overlooked with a stellar on-field performance. However, Baker didn't look as fluid as expected.
But his game isn't predicated on being the fastest or smoothest cover corner.
"He is tough," Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said of Baker, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter. "He's a scrappy guy, who's not turning it down."
Baker's value is derived from his ability to play in any scheme, which complements his physical nature. He's experienced in man coverage and zone drops. His excellent length (32-inch arms and 77⅛-inch wingspan) for a 5'11" cornerback also factors into his favor. Baker's competitiveness—evidenced by his 24 defended passes and seven interceptions as a 34-game starter in college football's best conference—didn't disappear.
Williams and Murphy could be selected before Baker. However, the Georgia product presents traits teams will want in the opening frame. A better performance during the Bulldogs' pro day March 21 will help his case when NFL teams compare him to other available options.
DT Dre'Mont Jones, Ohio State
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Ohio State's Dre'Mont Jones built his reputation as a disruptive upfield defender. The defensive tackle's combine numbers didn't accurately represent his actual skill set, though.
First, Jones came in a lighter than expected. Ohio State listed the 3-technique at 286 pounds, but he weighed 281 in Indianapolis. Jones looked more like the defensive end who first signed with the Buckeyes. Teams even requested a linebacker workout after Jones finished defensive line drills.
A strong showing was expected in the explosion numbers, but Jones didn't crack the top 10 among defensive linemen in any event. According to Three Sigma Athlete's Zach Whitman, Jones' workout fell in the 25th percentile of NFL defensive tackles in SPARQ (strength, power, agility, reaction and quickness).
A few years ago, these numbers would have tanked a prospect's draft stock. However, the game is changing. Jones' film shows a player who can collapse the pocket and create havoc. Last season, the first-team All-Big Ten performer finished second with 52 total pressures and fourth in his pass-rushing grade among interior defenders last season, per Pro Football Focus.
"I think what I do is uncanny, and I do it at a high level every game," Jones said, per the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Doug Lesmerises. "The basketball background helps a little bit, being able to get skinny through the hole or be quick and elusive with my feet."
A team can split the difference by drafting Jones early and playing him at base end before sliding him inside to rush the passer in sub-packages.
OT Greg Little, Ole Miss
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A lack of refinement doesn't equate to disappointment. Ole Miss left tackle Greg Little has been a divisive evaluation throughout this year's draft process. Some will argue he underperformed as a junior; others see the potential and caliber of play against quality competition.
Little had a chance to silence doubters with a standout combine performance commensurate with expectations. It didn't quite work out that way.
The 6'5", 310-pound blocker with 35¼-inch arms only produced one top-10-worthy result with his 9'5" broad jump. The rest of his workout was average to below-average. The on-field workout provided an opportunity to excel, but that didn't occur either. Little wasn't as smooth or polished with his technique as others, and he labored a bit throughout drills.
Fortunately, the first-team All-Sec performer understands his strengths and his weaknesses.
"My strengths would be my athleticism," Little told reporters at the combine. "I played basketball growing up. Played a lot of sports. Size, length, long arms. I can thank my parents for that. My weaknesses are probably just being more precise in my technique and adding more upper-body strength."
An offensive lineman constantly works to hone his technique, and Little isn't any different. But his physical traits and accompanying high-level play in college football's best conference portend a future dominant NFL left tackle.
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WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
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Once the oohs and aahs subsided after D.K. Metcalf's blistering 4.33-second 40-yard dash—the fastest ever run by a player over 225 pounds—a different realization came to the forefront: The Ole Miss wide receiver didn't quell one of the most important concerns about his game.
Medical evaluations were at the forefront after the 6'3", 228-pound target injured his neck last season and required surgery. Since the NFL's medical evaluations aren't public knowledge, everyone will have to take Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden at his word when he said, "I think he's been cleared medically, so that's the biggest thing," per Pro Football Weekly's Eric Edholm.
Secondly, Metcalf's rocked-up physique created questions about his fluidity. His change-of-direction times in the three-cone drill (7.38 seconds) and short shuttle (4.5 seconds) were awful. According to MockDraftable's Marcus Armstrong, the receiver tested among the bottom-third percentile in both drills.
While those results are concerning, two things must be taken into account. First, Metcalf slipped during his three-cone attempt, as SB Nation's Brett Kollmann noted. Second, these drills aren't directly representative of how a receiver moves in and out of breaks. Jarvis Landry posted worse times at his pro day and went on to set an NFL record with 400 receptions in his first four seasons.
Metcalf is a physically imposing vertical threat who can be a dynamic weapon outside the numbers. He may not be the most fluid target, but he's still WR1 in a deep and talented class.
RB David Montgomery, Iowa State
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Two years ago, three top running back prospects provided awful workouts. Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and James Conner turned out to be fine. Iowa State's David Montgomery performed better than all three during this year's combine even though his SPARQ score fell in the 20th percentile.
Granted, this isn't a high standard to achieve, but raw speed and explosion numbers don't necessarily correlate with a running back's overall talent.
Montgomery's skill set is different yet effective.
"I definitely grew up and patterned my game on a lot of Barry Sanders. I love Eric Dickerson, love Walter Payton," Montgomery told reporters in Indianapolis. "Those guys, those few guys and how they run, from being shifty and being able to shake people and being able to run through people, I've tried to pattern my game off those guys, legends who have led the way for me."
Forget the Hall of Fame names Montgomery mentioned and read into the previous quote a little deeper. The two-time first-team All-Big 12 performer saw the value of traits that aren't measured at the combine.
His game is predicated on vision, patience, balance, toughness and versatility. According to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery led major college football last season with 99 missed tackles and totaled 892 rushing yards after contact.
He managed 2,362 rushing yards during the last two seasons, and the 5'10", 222-pound runner added 71 career receptions.
This year's running back class as a whole is poor, but Montgomery still ranks among the best options.
DE Jachai Polite, Florida
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Of the 338 prospects invited to the combine, Florida's Jachai Polite had the worst week in pretty much every imaginable way.
The edge-rusher entered the weekend's festivities as a potential first-round pick, but plenty of organizations will question whether he's worth the headache.
Sources used the terms "temperamental" and "train wreck" to describe official team meetings with Polite, according to The Athletic's Dane Brugler.
Afterward, Polite didn't help his case with his answers about those situations.
"They were bashing me," he said of his time with the Green Bay Packers, per The MMQB's Albert Breer. "... They were trying to figure out my character. That's their job. They're supposed to do it. I'm not being a crybaby or anything."
Evening team meetings are one of the most important aspects of the combine experience. Obviously, Polite didn't handle them well. Sadly, the chance to build his resume through the on-field workouts may have gone worse. The 6'3", 258-pound edge-rusher (16 pounds heavier than Florida's listed weight) ran an unofficial 4.84-second 40-yard dash, pulled a hamstring and didn't participate for the rest of the day.
Despite all of this—and none of it reflects well on Polite—the NFL's search for talented pass-rushers never stops. Polite is an explosive and tenacious edge defender. His quickness, flexibility and natural leverage are as good as anyone's in the class. Some team is going to overlook the personality quirks because of what he can bring to a defense.
WR Riley Ridley, Georgia
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The 2019 wide receiver class is loaded with outstanding natural athletes. Georgia's Riley Ridley isn't one of them.
Eight prospects at the combine tested among the 92nd percentile or better in SPARQ for NFL wideouts, according to Three Sigma Athlete's Zach Whitman. Ridley ranked in the 26th percentile.
Nothing explosive appeared during his workout. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash and 30½-inch vertical disappointed. But that's never how he beat cornerbacks in the SEC. His game is predicated on nuance. Riley is a precision route-runner with reliable hands.
"Being a receiver is about catching the ball," the 6'1", 199-pound target said, per Pro Football Focus' Austin Gayle. "You can run as many routes as you'd like. You can have as much separation as you'd like. But if you can't catch the ball, you're finished."
Ridley led the Bulldogs with 44 receptions for 570 yards and nine touchdowns in 2018. He's not a first-round talent, but his draft stock shouldn't take a nosedive based on an understanding of who he is as a prospect. Bigger, more physical options will be available. If a team prefers a No. 2 target or someone to work the underneath routes, Ridley is an ideal target.
"Calvin Ridley was the best that I've faced in my career," former teammate Deandre Baker said, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter. "Riley [Ridley] is just like his brother. Just a little bit bigger and stronger. He runs great routes. Great hands."
OT Jonah Williams, Alabama
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Let the wisdom of Zeus once again inform everyone.
"I'm here to tell you to pay attention to his film, figure out how he manipulates his blocks based off his tools, and don't count him out cause he isn't a super-athlete," Orlando Brown tweeted about how to evaluate offensive linemen.
Based on film, Alabama's Jonah Williams is the best blocker in the class even though he doesn't fit certain standards.
Generally speaking, the NFL wants 6'6", 310-plus-pound left tackles with 34-inch or longer arms. Williams' length was immediately brought into question when his arms measured 33⅝ inches, even though numerous examples can be given of offensive tackles who lack preferred length.
"I think if you look at a lot of the really successful tackles over the years, the past 10 years—Joe Thomas, Joe Staley, Jake Matthews, Jason Peters, La'el Collins, Riley Reiff, Ryan Ramczyk—just a couple guys off the top of my head that have shorter arms than me," Williams told reporters during his combine availability.
The 6'4", 302-pound blocker came in small overall, and according to MockDraftable's Marcus Armstrong, he tested among the bottom half of linemen in all the explosive and change-of-direction drills.
Williams will never be the biggest, strongest or most athletic offensive tackle. However, he's a technician of the highest order who consistently completes his assignments to open holes for running backs and protect his quarterback.
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