2019 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Round 1's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

Every NFL draft prospect is a gamble to some degree. Even when a player looks like a veritable sure thing—like Saquon Barkley and Quenton Nelson did in last year's draft—there's no guarantee of success. However, some players carry more risk than others.

Last year, the Cleveland Browns took a risk by drafting Baker Mayfield first overall. The former Oklahoma signal-caller was a true boom-or-bust prospect because he had the skill set and the production of a future NFL star but not the traditional stature.

It appears the Browns hit big by taking that risk, and it's this type of successful gamble that will keep clubs taking chances on risk-reward players until the end of the NFL draft as we know it.

The 2019 draft class has its fair share of boom-or-bust prospects who could go in Round 1. We'll take a look at some of the biggest here, along with a full first-round mock based on player potential and team needs.

2019 NFL Mock Draft Round 1

1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

2. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

3. New York Jets: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

8. Detroit Lions: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

9. Buffalo Bills: Greg Little, OT, Mississippi

10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

12. Green Bay Packers: Devin White, LB, LSU

13. Miami Dolphins: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson

14. Atlanta Falcons: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

15. Washington Redskins: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

16. Carolina Panthers: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

17. Cleveland Browns: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

19. Tennessee Titans: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dre'Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State

21. Seattle Seahawks: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

22. Baltimore Ravens: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

23. Houston Texans: Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia

24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago): Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

26. Indianapolis Colts: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

27. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida

30. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans): Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

31. Los Angeles Rams: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

32. New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

As previously mentioned, Mayfield isn't built like a traditional pocket passer. At just under 6'1" he didn't look the part the way USC's Sam Darnold or Wyoming's Josh Allen did coming out of college. Well, Mayfield's successor and reigning Heisman-winner Kyler Murray is even more atypical.

Murray officially measured in at the combine at just over 5'10"

This makes Murray just a bit smaller than Seattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson, who is listed at 5'11" and 215 pounds. As Wilson has shown, the ability to play at the pro level doesn't depend on archetypal size.

The risk with Murray is not with his height. It's with his commitment to football. He has the option to play baseball instead if he wishes—he was drafted in the first round by the Oakland Athletics—which means a team could flat-out waste a draft pick if he is selected and then decides that the diamond is more appealing than the gridiron.

The potential reward, though, is huge. Murray has some of the same traits that helped Mayfield be a franchise-changing player, and he can have an impact similar to the one Mayfield had this past season. This is why Murray is likely to be one of the first players off the board.

D.K.Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

Appearances aren't everything, but Mississippi wide receiver D.K. Metcalf definitely looks like a future NFL star. He is a hulking 6'4" pass-catcher who should not struggle with the physicality of the NFL.

"We had an Ole Miss WR by the name of D.K. Metcalf come into our room yesterday. He looked like Jim Brown," Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said, per Trevor Sikkema of the Draft Network. "He's the biggest wideout I've ever seen."

Metcalf looks like a future star on film. He's fast and moves with a sense of ease and fluidity. If he blows away his combine workouts, he'll wind up in the running to be the top wideout off the board.

None of this guarantees Metcalf will have a quick transition the way Calvin Ridley did in 2018. He is a relatively raw prospect who didn't run an expansive route tree at Mississippi and who really didn't have a ton of production. Due in part to injury, Metcalf had just 67 collegiate receptions.

His 2018 season was cut short after seven games by a neck injury that required surgery. While the injury shouldn't affect the wideout's ability to play in the NFL, his time away from the playing field could make adjusting to the pro game as a rookie a little bit harder.

The risk is that Metcalf doesn't adjust to the NFL—much like former first-rounders John Ross and Laquon Treadwell, who have just 727 NFL receiving yards between them. The potential reward, though, is a perennial Pro Bowler, which is why Metcalf probably won't fall out of the first round.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

Like Metcalf, Alabama running back Josh Jacobs had a limited college resume. He had just 251 carries in three years, which is fewer than many starting NFL backs see in one season. On the one hand, this means he has a lot of tread left on the proverbial tires. On the other, it leaves open the question of whether he can be a full-time starter.

Playing running back in the NFL is a demanding job and a physical one. A small collegiate sample size doesn't necessarily mean a prospect cannot handle it—something Alvin Kamara continues to prove—but if a team spends a first-round pick on a back, it is going to want a workhorse.

There's no telling if Jacobs can be that, and there's no real way to know what kind of player he'll be at the pro level. It doesn't help that Jacobs won't be able to fully participate in combine drills due to injury.

A team can gamble on Jacobs and get a Kamara-type player in return, sure. However, it could also take a chance on him and wind up with the next incarnation of Trent Richardson.