Who Are The "Magical" Third-Year Wide Receivers In 2008?

The NFL draft is complete, and OTAs have begun. It’s time once again to start preliminary work on your fantasy draft boards.

The NFL season is 12 months long, and so is fantasy football. It’s never too early to start the quest for a fantasy football championship. 

The good managers are preparing their cheat sheets, and reading tons of information to be ready for their upcoming drafts as we speak. Some of them  use Fantasy Football Maniaxs (wink, wink) as their guide! I apologize for the shameless plug.

A select few WRs have immediate impact, but for the most part, it’s that “magical” third year in the league that has traditionally shown whether a WR has what it takes to make it in the NFL. 

All players have to adjust to the speed and the pace of the NFL game. Receivers traditionally take a couple years to learn their offenses, and adjust from the complexities of the college passing offense to the pro passing offense. For whatever reason, the third year is the "magic year" and, generally, a breakout year for young receivers.

Most years, knowing this will allow you to get some steals that other owners might not consider draft worthy, a/k/a Braylon Edwards from a season ago. Other notable WR’s that blossomed during their third year include Terrell Owens, Joey Galloway, Keyshawn Johnson and Jerricho Cotchery as recently as 2006.

The problem is, that probably isn’t the case this year. Most of this year’s third year receivers had solid seasons last year and will not be surprises. Although WR is probably the deepest position in fantasy football, the same can’t be said for third-year receivers in 2008.

After the top guys, there isn’t a very deep or promising class. There is only a handful that could serve your fantasy team well. Here are my rankings for the third-year wide receivers.

1) Marques Colston, Saints: This isn’t one that will take people by surprise. He has already broken out, and is the best fantasy option of the third-year WRs.  If you don’t get your Randy Moss or Terrell Owens, he can be a solid first option at WR on your fantasy team.

As a rookie, and eligible also at TE in most leagues, Colston was a waiver wire gold mine, and last season he hauled in 98 catches for 1,202 yards and 11 TDs.

The Saints will get back to playing football instead of trying to be cute with Reggie Bush, so expect their offense to rebound and to again be one of the best in the league. As that happens, expect Colston to put up similar numbers this season. He has early third round value and may go even sooner depending on your league.

2)  Santonio Holmes, Steelers: Holmes started to come into his own last season. Speedy and shifty, his numbers last season were similar to those of Green Bay’s Greg Jennings. Holmes had 52 catches, 942 yards and eight TDs. To me, Holmes is that hanging curve if you’re looking to hit a home run after the big guys have come off the board. Even with the addition of rookie WR Limas Sweed, I expect all of Holmes’ numbers to increase, as he became a go-to guy for Ben Roethlisberger last season.

Rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall should help the running game curb opposing defenses, keeping pressure off Holmes and the other Steelers’ receivers. Don’t be surprised if Holmes gets at least 65 - 70 passes for 1,100+ yards and 9 - 10 TDs. Also, don’t bite too early as you draft. Think of him as a good third option, not someone to be building your receiving corps around.  He is a good fourth to fifth round pick.

3) Greg Jennings, Packers: Ridiculously good after the catch, he only had 53 catches, but turned them into 920 yards and 12 TDs. However, that was with Brett Favre at QB, and this offense is going to look much different under Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is athletic and does have a good grasp of the offense, so expect Jennings to have similar numbers in regards to receptions and yards. If he can stay healthy, there is even a good chance he’ll reach 1,000 yards for the first time this year.

But because Green Bay will run a little more, and Rodgers won’t take the same chances or make teams have as much respect for the deep ball as Favre did, I am predicting Jennings’ TD numbers to decline to the 7-10 range.  He has similar value to Holmes and is still a good fourth to fifth round pick, but you may have to act quicker given his big touchdown numbers last year.

4) Brandon Marshall, Broncos: He led all second-year WRs last year with a whopping 102 catches and 1,325 yards. He also tacked on seven TDs. Good young talent with speed and size, and Denver’s No. 1 wide out, Marshall should put up solid numbers this season, but not quite what he had last year. First, he had a forearm injury that required stitches.  While he will be ready for training camp, that hurt him in the OTAs and offseason workouts. 

Denver should be the Denver I thought they could be last season. The Broncos released RB Travis Henry, but have some good backs in the wings.  Drafting Ryan Clady will help them run the ball better. They probably won’t be playing from behind as much this year, and should also have more consistent play from its tight ends. All of these factors should bring down Marshall’s numbers some.

His TDs should be about the same; expect about six or seven of those. I see the decline in his receptions (low to mid 80s) and yards (1,000 –1,100). If another owner jumps on the Marshall bandwagon and pulls the trigger in the third or fourth round, consider it a favor.  He is realistically a solid fifth rounder that may be around in the sixth round.

5) Ben Obomanu, Seahawks: The top four receivers were the obvious choices. He’s a wild card in this mix.The 12 receptions, 180 yards, and one TD he had last year makes him easy to forget.  He is definitely not on par with the other names. I’m going to hype him a little because he could be a fantastic steal in the later rounds or, depending on the league, on the waiver wire. Obomanu has the potential – especially in Seattle’s offense – to be a 1,000 yard 8 - 10 TD guy. 

He has decent speed and size at 6’0” 206 lbs., and fits the offense fairly well.  With D.J. Hackett now in Carolina and Deion Branch injured and not certain to be ready for Week One, Obomanu will see the field more in ‘08.  Keep an eye on Seattle’s depth chart and WR competition in camps and in the preseason.

If Obomanu can beat out Bobby Engram or Nate Burleson for a starting spot, expect good things in a pass friendly offense with a Pro Bowl QB in Matt Hasselbeck. Otherwise, barring injury to one of those others, Seattle’s #3 receiver probably isn’t worth having most weeks.

That’s the handful of impact third-year WRs. One for each finger on your hand. Keep them and the analysis in mind as you make your way toward your fantasy football draft.

In regards to the other third year receivers, they don’t require much analysis now. Their names are: Jason Avant (Phi), Devin Hester (Chi), Chad Jackson (NE), Maurice Stovall (TB), Demetrius Williams (Bal) and Travis Wilson (Cle). They are probably going to be waiver wire pickups if surprise production warrants them being picked up.

Good luck in your draft and in your fantasy season.

Nick Lord is a fantasy columnist at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com