Biggest Potential Busts of the 2019 NFL Free-Agency Class
The New England Patriots proved themselves to be the best in the NFL once again, topping the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII. While Bill Belichick's team can spend the next few days celebrating, the NFL's other 31 franchises are already looking to close the talent gap with New England.
The first chance for teams to do so will occur in free agency, which kicks off March 13.
There are some notable names scheduled to hit the open market this year (including a pair of could-be free-agent signal-callers), but teams need to be wary of adding players who don't fit their schemes, of overpaying for players with limited proven production and of adding those with high injury risk. These moves could easily result in busts in a year or two.
An example from last offseason is cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who signed a $72.5 million deal with the Jets but who also struggled to adapt to New York's defensive system.
Who are this year's biggest potential free-agent busts? Let's take a look.
DE Ezekiel Ansah
1 of 10
Detroit Lions pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah will command a fair amount of attention on the open market because of the position he plays. Teams regularly overpay for even average pass-rushers—Vinny Curry got a three-year, $23 million deal last offseason—and Ansah is just a year removed from a 12-sack season.
However, there are a couple of issues teams need to be wary of. He's coming off a season hampered by a shoulder injury. Ansah made just two starts, appeared in seven games and finished with only 4.0 sacks.
He's also inconsistent. Ansah has registered double-digit sacks twice, but he's also had seasons of 7.5 sacks, 4.0 sacks and 2.0 sacks. Teams may pay for 12-sack Ansah only to get the 2.0 version
LB Clay Matthews
2 of 10
Teams interested in adding Ansah for pass-rushing help may also be interested in longtime Green Bay Packers sack artist Clay Matthews. He's amassed 83.5 sacks during his 10-year career.
While Matthews' age (32) works against him, Chris Long, 33, has shown that even an aging pass-rusher can help make a championship contender. Long, by the way, is set to earn $5.6 million in 2019.
The problem is that a team might overpay for Matthews based on his past production and certifiable star status—he'll likely command more than Long is set to earn. He has been on the decline as a pass-rusher, though, averaging just over 5.0 sacks per season during the last three years.
RB Mark Ingram
3 of 10
The New Orleans Saints have had arguably the league's hottest running back duo in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram over the last two seasons. Teams may want to get a piece of the action by grabbing Ingram, who is set to be a free agent.
However, there's no guarantee that Ingram will be anywhere near as productive without Kamara to spell him. Yes, he had a 1,000-yard season in 2017, the year before Kamara was drafted, but he's only had two such seasons since 2011, his rookie year. A team cannot add Ingram and pencil in a 1,000-yard rusher.
Ingram is also 29 years old, which is up there in running back years. While he should still have a few more productive seasons left, he could exit his prime during any long-term pact. Even a deal in the thee-year, $15 million range—like the one Carlos Hyde inked last offseason—feels like too much.
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QB Joe Flacco
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Technically, quarterback Joe Flacco isn't an impending free agent. However, there's a strong chance he'll hit the open market.
"If there's one team interested, we'll probably trade him," general manager Eric DeCosta said, per Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic. "If there's nobody interested, we'll have to make another decision."
Whether a club trades for Flacco or signs him as a free agent, it could regret it. Flacco is set to earn $26.5 million in 2019 and might command even more on the open market. That's a lot of money for a guy who lost his job to rookie Lamar Jackson in 2018 and who hasn't thrown more than 20 touchdowns in a season since 2014.
Sure, Flacco is a former Super Bowl MVP, but it's unlikely he'll ever be that player again.
QB Nick Foles
5 of 10
On Tuesday, the Philadelphia Eagles picked up their $20.6 million mutual option on quarterback Nick Foles for 2019, according to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. However, Foles declined the option, so he will pay back $2 million to become a free agent, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
He'll likely earn even more on the open market, unless Philadelphia gives him the franchise tag and tries to trade him first.
If a team does sign or trade for Foles, it could easily overpay. Foles, after all, was last year's Super Bowl MVP, and he helped lead the Eagles back to the postseason this year.
However, Foles has also shown a tendency to struggle outside Philadelphia. He had a strong year there under Chip Kelly in 2013, but he then stumbled with the St. Louis Rams. He started 11 games for them 2015, completed just 56.4 percent of his passes and tossed seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was benched several times and subsequently traded.
WR Golden Tate
6 of 10
Golden Tate's bust potential hinges on just how much teams are willing to pay to acquire him. The Eagles gave up a third-round pick to get him for the second half of the season, so it may end up being quite a bit.
The three-year, $21 million deal Michael Crabtree signed last offseason will likely be a starting point for Crabtree's agent.
But while Tate is a quality receiver, he's also set to turn 31 over the summer. He's entering the twilight of his career, and he may struggle to make an immediate impact if he doesn't return to Philadelphia or Detroit.
Tate was a factor in the Eagles' playoff win over the Chicago Bears (five catches, 46 yards, TD), but he didn't do much in his first eight games with the team. Tate caught 30 passes but for just 278 yards and one score.
WR Chris Hogan
7 of 10
Tom Brady tends to make stars out of average players. When other teams add them, it can result in disappointment. Just look at former Patriots receiver Danny Amendola and the 575-yard, one-touchdown season he had with the Miami Dolphins in 2018. Amendola isn't breaking the bank at $6 million per year, but his season was still disappointing.
This is why teams should be careful about coveting wideout Chris Hogan in free agency.
Hogan has the speed and skill set to be a complementary downfield receiver, but teams can't overpay for him based on the fact that he's coming off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances and played with Brady.
The 30-year-old Hogan could fall back into obscurity—and mediocrity—if he leaves New England.
S Earl Thomas
8 of 10
There's no doubting that safety Earl Thomas has been one of the league's best defenders during most of his nine-year career. He's snagged 28 interceptions, racked up 664 tackles and has been named to six Pro Bowls over that span.
However, Thomas has also been injured often recently. He's coming off a broken leg, suffered another broken leg in 2016 and hasn't played a full 16-game schedule since 2015. He's a big injury risk and will be 30 when the 2019 season starts.
In addition, Thomas is used to playing a specific role in the Seattle Seahawks defense. He'll likely be looking at a different scheme—and possibly less defensive talent around him—in his new home.
Thomas carries numerous risks, but he'll still command a top contract—even on a prove-it deal—because of name recognition and past production. Tyrann Mathieu got $7 million for a one-year deal last offseason. Thomas should command more than that, and this makes him a possible bust.
RB C.J. Anderson
9 of 10
The Los Angeles Rams got to the Super Bowl, which means other teams will be interested in adding players from their roster this offseason. It's a trend we tend to see every year. One player likely to draw interest is running back C.J. Anderson.
Anderson filled in for Todd Gurley the last two games of the season and played a big role in L.A.'s title run. In the four games leading up to Super Bowl LIII, he averaged more than 100 yards per contest on the ground. Someone is likely to look at this limited window of production and offer Anderson a sizable contract.
Anderson could potentially get something in the $5 million-per-season range like Hyde and Dion Lewis last year, but might be too high.
That's not to say Anderson isn't a quality back—he had a 1,000-yard season in 2017—but it would be a mistake to ignore the fact that he was cut by two teams in 2018 and couldn't get on the field for the Oakland Raiders.
TE Tyler Eifert
10 of 10
2013 first-round pick Tyler Eifert has been a frustrating player for the Cincinnati Bengals. He's been a tremendous red-zone threat when healthy—13 touchdowns during his Pro Bowl campaign of 2015—but he's also rarely been at 100 percent.
Eifert has not played a full 16-game season as a pro, and he's missed 34 contests over the past three years because of injury. He's also coming off a broken ankle. However, Eifert insists he can be the same player he was in 2015.
"I'll be back where I was," Eifert said in January, via the Bengals' official website. "No question."
Someone will take a chance on Eifert because of his potential—a past-his-prime Jimmy Graham is making $10 million per year. However, he carries a ton of injury risk and could become a bust because of it.
*All contract information via Spotrac.com.
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