NFL MVP 2019: Award Candidates, Odds and Predictions

The identity of the 2018 season's NFL MVP will be officially unveiled during Saturday night's NFL Honors Show.

Spoiler alert: It's going to be a quarterback.

We won't say which quarterback just yet, but there's zero reason to think that signal-callers' run of success is in any kind of jeopardy. Quarterbacks have claimed each of the last five (and 10 of the last 11) MVP awards.

In fact, oddsmakers only list two players—both quarterbacks—on the board as MVP candidates: Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees, per OddsShark. We'll examine the MVP credentials of both before predicting our winner.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Odds: -250

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

This wasn't always Mahomes' award to lose. It just feels that way because his lead has seemed insurmountable for the last month-plus.

His stats seem like they are from a video game. The standout sophomore—and first-year starter—became just the 11th player to pass for 5,000 yards or more in a season and only the third to toss at least 50 touchdowns.

Mahomes also joined Peyton Manning as the only players to hit both mind-numbing marks in the same season, a feat Manning accomplished in 2013, when he captured 49 of the 50 MVP votes.

Mahomes' MVP case is more than numbers, though.

There wasn't a more electric player in football. He might unleash a deep bomb to a streaking receiver 50-plus yards downfield or uncork a sidearm pass that seems to bend around defenders in pursuit of its target.

He balanced a fine line between grace and chaos, becoming the NFL's version of Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry. Mahomes did things other players can't do. Even his legs were weaponized, either by extending plays to force passing windows open or taking it himself as a rusher, which he did 60 times for another 272 yards and two scores.

"Mahomes aced the numbers test and broke the eye test," The Ringer's Danny Heifetz wrote in their staff awards following the season. "If you don't have Mahomes as MVP, you better have Andy Reid as Coach of the Year."

Mahomes powered Kansas City's jump from good to great, boosting the victory column from 10 to 12 and delivering the Chiefs' first postseason victory since the 2015 season. He spent most of the campaign as the new face of football, and that could give his candidacy a boost, not that it needed one.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Odds: +170

John Bazemore/Associated Press

That Brees doesn't have better MVP odds is hardly a reflection of the year he had. It was nothing short of a record-breaker, in more ways than one.

He darted past Manning into the No. 1 spot for career passing yards, pushing his all-time mark (for now) to 74,437. Brees also broke his own record for efficiency by connecting on an impossibly high 74.4 percent of his passes.

And while he endured a relatively choppy finish to his regular season, he still usually delivered when New Orleans needed him most.

"If you're looking for anecdotal heroics, Brees wins out," ESPN's Bill Barnwell wrote ahead of Week 17. "He has led six fourth-quarter comeback victories this season, the most in football."

If not for an egregious officiating blunder in the NFC Championship Game, Brees would probably be preparing for a Super Bowl right now. While that doesn't impact his regular season, it does show the type of damage he created without a surplus of offensive weapons.

Sure, Brees had two high-end running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, plus a matchup nightmare in receiver Michael Thomas. But the Saints didn't get a lot of mileage out of their tight ends, and they never established a great No. 2 receiving option, leaving Brees to make the best of what he had.

The 40-year-old delivered on that front. In addition to passing for 3,992 yards, he threw 32 touchdown passes to 15 different players. He was also nearly mistake-free, throwing just five interceptions (his fewest as a starter).

In a normal season, Brees might be the runaway MVP. But Mahomes made this year anything but normal, and he'll likely have some hardware to show for that.

Prediction: Mahomes wins by a comfortable margin.