Super Bowl Odds 2019: Over/Under Line, Spread Picks for Patriots vs. Rams

Bettors of all types can find reasons to have interest in—and action on—the Super Bowl.

The most daring among us can wager on an almost endless supply of prop bets. Everything from the time of Gladys Knight's national anthem performance (over/under: 1:47) to the color of the Gatorade shower (lime/green/yellow is the favorite at +225) can be found on a betting slip.

But those with more traditional tastes can still take the classic route and wager on regular lines like the point spread and over/under.

After updating the latest numbers, via OddsShark, we'll do a deeper dive and provide predictions for both the spread and the total score.

Super Bowl LIII: New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams

When: Sunday, Feb. 3 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

TV: CBS

Live Stream: CBS All Access

Line: New England -2.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Over/Under Prediction

This is one of the highest over/under totals in Super Bowl history, which shouldn't be too surprising.

These are two of the highest-scoring offenses in football, and they'll battle head-to-head inside of a dome. If each puts forth its average offensive output from the regular season, it would go over at 60.2 points.

The Patriots have only played high-scoring games this postseason, with their first two contests producing point totals of 69 and 68. That might lead you to believe this should be an obvious wager.

But 56.5 is a lot of points. Only three of the last 10 Super Bowls have cleared that number, although New England was involved in two of them. The Rams haven't really approached that number in the playoffs (52 and 49 so far) and only topped it once in December.

And while Tom Brady and Jared Goff are each capable of putting on a fireworks show, these offenses have been content with riding their running backs. L.A. has actually attempted more rushes (74) than passes (69) in the playoffs, while it's close to an even split with New England (90 passes, 82 rushes).

In other words, this feels like more of a time of possession and field position battle than the over/under and quarterback name brands would make you think. The opportunity volume might not be there for these clubs to combine for that many points.

Prediction: Under

Spread Prediction

As this spread indicates, you can usually count on the Super Bowl being a nail-biter.

Three of the last four and eight of the last 11 have been decided by eight points or less. The final margin was four or less four different times in that range.

Things are especially close when the Patriots are involved. All eight of their previous Super Bowl trips during the Brady-Bill Belichick era have featured a single-digit scoring margin. Six were decided by four points or less.

It really doesn't matter if they win or lose, either. The average margin in their Super Bowl victories is 3.8; during their losses it's 5.0.

Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport laid out three reasons to like New England's chances of covering:

"The first is New England's bend-but-don't-break defense. While the Rams and Patriots allowed almost an identical amount of yards per game, the Patriots were seventh in scoring defense (20.3 PPG). The Rams were 20th (24.0 PPG). I trust New England more to tighten up in the red zone.

"The second is L.A.'s struggles against the run at times in the regular season. The Rams allowed a league-high 5.1 yards per carry in 2018—that's bad heading into a matchup with a Patriots squad that's been cramming Sony Michel down opponents' throats in the postseason.

"The third is Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and New England's experience on this stage. This is all new to most of the Rams. For the Pats, it's just another (yawn) Super Bowl trip. New England's much better equipped to handle the mayhem of Super Bowl week, and you really can bet the kids' college fund that Darth Hoodie will have something up his sleeve for the Rams."

All due respect to Sean McVay's masterful mind and L.A.'s collection of playmakers, but winning Super Bowls is what Brady, Belichick and Co. do. With the Patriots hitting their stride both on defense and in the rushing attack, this seems like yet another parade is coming to the Northeast.

Prediction: Patriots (-2.5) 28, Rams 24