Patriots vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship 2019 Odds and Over-Under Predictions

The New England Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game, but the calendar probably informed you of that already.

It wouldn't feel like January without Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the bunch playing for an AFC title. This is the eighth year in a row they'll be doing it, but it's the first since 2013 where they won't be the favorites.

That distinction instead goes to the Kansas City Chiefs, who have already advanced further than they've been since 1994. While experience favors the visitors in a big way, oddsmakers are still giving a slight bump to an NFL-best offense powered by Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

After looking at the latest odds, we'll examine this matchup from a gambler's perspective before predicting the winner. 

2019 AFC Championship Odds

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Over/Under: 54

Quarterback Containment

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

While Mahomes didn't fly under anyone's radar this season—you couldn't overlook 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns if you tried—the Patriots might have paid closer attention to him than most.

After all, they watched him skewer their secondary for 352 yards and four scores during a Week 6 matchup.

"He's an outstanding player in every facet of the game," Belichick told reporters Tuesday. "He's got a strong arm. He can throw the ball the length of the field, but he's got a great touch. He's got the ability to read coverages, extend plays, make good decisions and make explosive plays without taking too much of a risk and putting his team in jeopardy."

The Pats will be particularly wary of the Mahomes-Tyreek Hill connection, which gave them—and a bunch of other defenses—all kinds of problems. Hill finished that earlier contest with game highs of seven receptions, 142 receiving yards and three touchdown catches.

But New England will also remember it not only won that game, it also intercepted Mahomes twice. This is an opportunistic defense that tied for third in interceptions with 18. It's also a group that seems to be growing with time. After closing the regular season by holding their final three opponents to an average of 10.7 points, the Pats limited an explosive Los Angeles Chargers attack to seven first-half points Sunday.

While New England will likely key on Mahomes, Kansas City figures to do the same with Brady.

The 41-year-old wasn't quite as dominant as he has been, but you wouldn't find many quarterbacks complaining about a season with 4,355 passing yards and 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

The Chiefs are keenly aware of what Brady can do. He threw for 340 yards against them the first time around, adding one touchdown through the air and another on the ground.

But Kansas City dropped Brady twice in that game, and that was a low number for this defense. The Chiefs tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks this season, getting 37.5 combined from Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston.

If that trio can pressure Brady without needing extra help, that's long been among the big keys to stopping the Patriots.

"Everybody will tell you if you can do it with four people, that's an even bigger advantage," defensive coordinator Bob Sutton said. "Obviously it gives you more people to cover with and you can do more things schematically."

With both clubs focused on the other's signal-caller, this contest could produce fewer points than expected.

Braving the Elements

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Is there a colder sounding combination of words than "arctic blast?" It feels freezing just to type them.

Anyway, that's what is reportedly headed to Kansas City for Sunday's big showdown.

"The National Weather Service is projecting an arctic blast to settle over Kansas City for the Chiefs' game against the New England Patriots," the Associated Press noted. "Temperatures at kickoff could range from 10 degrees to well below zero, potentially making it the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history."

It's hard to tell which team that might favor. Neither plays in a warm-weather climate, so both are used to battling the cold. Even then, though, this is super cold; no team has much experience handling it.

Where this could come into play is the contest's point total. If you thought 54 points seemed like a low number for clubs that combined for 83 in the first meeting, it could be awfully high considering the conditions.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explained:

"In the Super Bowl era, there have been 11 playoff games with a game-time temperature of 10 degrees or less. In those frigid conditions, no team has ever put more than 30 points on the board (the Packers' 30-13 win over the Panthers in January 1997 on the way to beating the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI is the standard-setter), so there's a chance that the New England defense gets an assist from the weather in its quest to slow Patrick Mahomes."

Potent though these teams might be, their normal production might be impossible to match under the arctic elements.

Prediction

Patriots 27, Chiefs 23

Odds used courtesy of OddsShark. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.