Rams vs. Saints: NFC Championship 2019 Odds and Over-Under Predictions

When the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints lock horns in Sunday's 2019 NFC Championship Game, no one can expect the former to act like they've been there before.

This is the deepest into the playoffs the Rams have probed since Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce steered them to Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002.

It's also been a while for the Saints, who hadn't been beyond the divisional round since 2010. But nearly 10 years later, New Orleans is still led by the championship-winning duo of Sean Payton and Drew Brees.

However, both the standings and stat sheets agree these are the two best teams in the NFC. Let's take a closer look at the matchup from a betting angle.

2019 NFC Championship Odds

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Over/Under: 57

Momentum or Location?

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

While it took the Rams a little while to navigate life without injured receiver Cooper Kupp, they finally look back to being a spread-covering buzzsaw.

L.A. won its Week 16 and 17 matchups by a combined 38 points. It followed with a more-comfortable-than-it-sounds 30-22 win over the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round. The Rams enjoyed a 23-7 third-quarter lead in that contest and had a 30-15 advantage into the game's final three minutes.

Two positive trends have emerged that could continue pushing the Rams forward.

For starters, Jared Goff stopped turning the ball over. Between Weeks 13 and 15 alone, the third-year quarterback threw six interceptions, but he hasn't thrown one since.

Perhaps the biggest change, though, has been the addition of C.J. Anderson. He closed with two brilliant efforts in place of Todd Gurley, totaling 299 rushing yards and two touchdowns over the season's final two tilts. But with both backs healthy on Sunday, they showed how they can terrorize in tandem, shredding a good Dallas defense for 238 rushing yards and three touchdowns combined.

"It's scary," Anderson said of the two-back look. "We've got different styles. We can keep teams off balance."

The Saints had this season's second-stingiest rushing defense, although it's now missing breakout defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. They were much more generous against the pass, allowing the NFL's fourth-most yards.

That could give this contest shootout potential, which might make the venue important. The Saints' explosive offense isn't often held in check on its home field.

Brees was almost a perfect quarterback inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the regular season, throwing 21 touchdowns against just one interception there. His average attempt produced more than two additional yards at home (9.5) than on the road (6.9).

It should come as little surprise then that New Orleans protects its house as well as anyone. The Saints only had two home slip-ups all season; once in Week 1, the other in Week 17, when Brees and Alvin Kamara were serving as spectators.

That said, New Orleans didn't exactly dominate the divisional round. The Saints, who were the weekend's heaviest favorites, had to rally from a 14-0 deficit and didn't secure their 20-14 victory until Marcus Lattimore intercepted a pass that Alshon Jeffery probably catches nine times out of 10.

Fewer Fireworks Than The First Time

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Given the potential potency of these passing games, they can make 57 seem like a small number.

When these same squads squared off in Week 9, they nearly surpassed 57 points ahead of halftime. By day's end, it was a 45-35 Saints victory, with Brees (346 yards, four touchdowns) just edging out Goff (391 yards, three touchdowns).

But 57 is a lot of points, especially if L.A. continues following the run-first model it has taken down the stretch. Only once in the Rams' last six games has the total reached 57 points. For the Saints, it's once in their last seven.

As good as these offenses can be, they aren't guaranteed to post video-game numbers. And even if they do, oddsmakers sometimes set the bar high enough that they still don't clear it.

The over has hit in nine of the Rams' 17 games, per TeamRankings.com. It's less likely with the Saints involved, as 10 of the team's 17 outings have gone under.

While the firepower is in place to race past this total, these defenses are playing for their spot in the Super Bowl. Add L.A.'s recent rushing slant to the mix, and this contest feels capable of producing fewer points than you'd think.

Prediction

Saints 28, Rams 24 

Odds used courtesy of OddsShark. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.