2018-19 NFL MVP: Latest Odds and Predictions Following Week 17

Multiple MVP contenders surfaced throughout the season, but few concluded Week 17 with viable cases intact. 

The race has whittled down to Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees, who topped the NFL in quarterback rating for each conference's premier squad. While players at less grandiose positions have filed exceptional campaigns, it would take a high dose of creative ingenuity to envision anyone else winning the award.

Based on the raw numbers, Mahomes should run away with the distinction after depositing 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first season as a starter.

He solidified his status as the favorite by guiding the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC West title with a 35-3 win over the Oakland Raiders. Brees, meanwhile, rested in Week 17 since the New Orleans Saints already secured home-field advantage.

While the following stars will now direct their attention to the postseason, let's review the 2018 campaign by scrutinizing the MVP conversation. 

The Field

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

With 3,448 passing yards, Russell Wilson doesn't wield the necessary volume. Andrew Luck, averaging a middling 7.2 yards per pass attempt, doesn't boast the required efficiency. They're merely in the running for top-five consideration.

Philip Rivers was gaining steam as a legitimate candidate before accruing 357 passing yards and four picks in the season's final two contests. He should still finish high, but no better than third, on most ballots.

C.J. Anderson, who signed with Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 18, rushed for 299 yards and two touchdowns over two wins in place of Todd Gurley. There's no universe where a running back should net MVP honors as long as the "V" continues to stand for "Valuable."

Jared Goff also fell off the MVP board by tossing one touchdown and six picks from Weeks 13 to 15. The Rams only roster one viable contender, and it's Aaron Donald. 

Finishing the season with 20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and 25 tackles for loss, he's arguably the NFL's best player at any position. He has the strongest case of any non-quarterback, but no defensive player has taken home the honor since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. 

There's a valid argument to make for Donald, and he may be a favorite for an award named Best Player or Most Outstanding Player. It's simply too difficult to imagine voters eschewing one of the two deserving quarterbacks.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Odds (as of Sunday, per OddsShark): 17-10

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The Saints didn't do Brees' MVP bid any favors by resting him in an inconsequential Week 17.

He finished his 18th season with the best quarterback rating (115.7) of his career and the highest single-season completion percentage (74.4) in NFL history. The record formerly belonged to some guy named Drew Brees, who converted 72 percent of his passes last year.

He also, however, procured his fewest passing yards (3,992) since joining the Saints in 2006. That's a tough impediment when his direct competitor surpassed 5,000 and 11 other quarterbacks reached the decreasingly rare 4,000-yard plateau.

Brees could have used another game to bolster his numbers, but a rough patch from Weeks 13 to 15 ultimately hindered his chances. The 39-year-old mustered just 5.6 yards per attempt with three touchdowns (one rushing) and picks apiece in as many games.

So why does this race remain reasonably close? Some onlookers either believe (or think others will believe) the future Hall of Famer deserves one MVP honor during his career. Yet this isn't a lifetime achievement award, so it doesn't matter if Mahomes has plenty of more time to fill his mantle.

The more logical selling points are his efficiency and late-game heroics. Brees orchestrated seven game-winning drives and six fourth-quarter comebacks for the 13-2 Saints. He posted a 118.9 passer rating in the final period.

That's all well in good, but those talking points remain reaches when the other guy threw 50 touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Odds: 2-5

David Eulitt/Getty Images

The case for Mahomes almost seems too simplistic. He led the NFL in passing touchdowns, assembling 11 more than runner-up Andrew Luck. Only Peyton Manning (55 in 2013) has produced more in a season.

History is on the second-year pro's side. Brees currently holds the most passing touchdowns in a season (46 in 2011) without winning MVP. Aaron Rodgers happened to toss 45 scores with a 122.5 quarterback rating for the 15-1 Green Bay Packers that season.

Although he's certainly biased, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid shared what should be the prevailing opinion during Sunday's post-game press conference: 

Alongside Ben Roethlisberger, Mahomes became the seventh quarterback to compile 5,000 yards in a season on Sunday. Brees has achieved the stellar mark five times. Nobody else has done it twice. It stinks that he hasn't won the award yet, but 2018's stats are all that matters.

Mahomes also has consistency on his side. He accounted for at least one touchdown in every game while registering a quarterback rating of 89.5 or higher in all but one bout. That singular outlier saw him notch 313 passing yards in a 30-14 win over a lethal Jacksonville Jaguars secondary.

His Chiefs netted a dozen victories, so does it really matter if the Saints etched out more in dramatic fashion?

Nobody can rationally blame Mahomes for any of their shortcomings, either. He accrued 1,346 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and a 111.8 quarterback rating in four losses decided by a combined 14 points. The Chiefs ceded 164 points, most memorably dropping a 54-51 classic to the Rams in which Mahomes stockpiled 478 passing yards and six touchdowns.

Ignore anyone who cites Kansas City's 3-4 record against winning clubs as an endorsement for Brees.

If anything, Mahomes deserves credit for masking his team's weaknesses. Per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs entered Week 17 brandishing the NFL's best defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA). That's despite their defense placing No. 27 in the efficiency measure.

Labeling this a tight battle is mostly a sign of respect to Brees. Mahomes should win by a comfortable margin.

MVP Ballot Predictions

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC

2. Drew Brees, QB, NO

3. Aaron Donald, DT, LAR

4. Philip Rivers, QB, LAC

5. Andrew Luck, QB, IND