Fantasy Football Week 17: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

One week. That's all that remains in the 2018 NFL season, and if you're still alive in your fantasy league, that's all you have to win to become champion.

Taking Week 17 can be a tad tricky, though. Knowing who will start and who will sit is a challenge. So is determining which fringe starters you should turn to when it looks like one of your star players will rest until the postseason.

We're here to help by examining some second-tier fantasy options who face tough matchups. We'll determine who to start and who to sit according to factors such as opponent, performance and player health.

Our choices are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats.    

QB Lamar Jackson vs. Cleveland Browns

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson got his team another win last week, but he wasn't quite fantasy gold. He only rushed for 39 yards and tossed one touchdown pass. His 204 passing yards were good for the Ravens offense, but it was nothing special for fantasy owners.

Jackson's fantasy value comes from his rushing ability, and that's why we think he'll return to glory against the Cleveland Browns. While the Browns defense is chock full of playmakers, it can be vulnerable to the run. It has given up an average of 124.5 yards rushing per game this season (24th in the NFL) and allowed Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel to gain 21 yards on just five carries last week.

Cleveland has ceded the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, a ranking that is relevant when projecting half of Jackson's Week 17 potential.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 189 yards passing, 75 yards rushing, 2 TD, 1 INT

Start Over: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

QB Jeff Driskel at Pittsburgh Steelers

Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

Like Jackson, Driskel has rushing ability. The Bengals quarterback ran for 21 yards and tossed a pair of touchdowns against Cleveland last week, so you may be tempted to view him as a deep sleeper for Sunday.

With New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott candidates to sit—both teams have locked up their playoff seeds—you may be looking for just such a sleeper.

We're here to suggest looking elsewhere, though. While the Pittsburgh defense hasn't been dominant—it's allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks—it's also cornered. The Steelers need a win and a Ravens loss to get into the postseason, and we'd expect the defense to harass Driskel at home, much like it did to Tom Brady two weeks ago.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 180 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 fumble

Sit For: Teddy Bridgewater, Josh Allen

RB Marlon Mack at Tennessee Titans

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans represent a challenge for opposing running backs. They've allowed an average of 13.2 fantasy points per game to the position, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the league. However, this doesn't mean every running back has failed against them.

The Washington Redskins' Adrian Peterson, for example, ran for 119 yards and caught an eight-yard pass against Tennessee last week.

This is why we recommend sticking by Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack. While he may not top the 100-yard mark, he still carries touchdown potential. The Colts have relied on him regularly in the red zone—he's rushed for four touchdowns in his last three games—and will again against Tennessee.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 70 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

RB Dion Lewis vs. Indianapolis Colts

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Sunday night's matchup between the Colts and Titans will be fun. It's a win-and-get-in battle, and we expect both defenses to be at the top of their games. While Mack will be worth a start, the same cannot be said for Titans running back Dion Lewis.

The problem for Lewis has as much to do with his role as the individual matchup. Since Derrick Henry has taken off over the last few weeks, Lewis has taken a back seat. Last week against Washington, he had just three receptions and 25 total yards.

Unless Henry gets injured, Lewis isn't likely to see many touches against Indianapolis. 

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 12 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 20 yards receiving

Sit For: Duke Johnson, Mike Davis

WR Jordy Nelson at Kansas City Chiefs

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

We listed Jordy Nelson as a start last week, and he delivered with a seven-catch, 75-yard performance. Nelson has become Oakland's top receiver in recent weeks and one of Derek Carr's favorite targets.

"When he got healthy, just ever since then, he's a trustworthy guy that does things the right way," Carr said, via the team's official website. "Usually guys like that, the ball ends up finding them."

The ball has found Nelson 29 times for 308 yards over the last four weeks. While Nelson hasn't scored, he's been a PPR machine. He's caught at least six passes in each game over the last month, and he should do so again versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Raiders will have their hands full with their division rival, who have to win to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed. However, Nelson will still help your fantasy team win.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards receiving

Start Over: Mike Williams, Zay Jones

WR Courtland Sutton vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Bryan Woolston/Associated Press

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton was on the opposite sideline from Nelson last week, and he had a good game, too. He finished with six receptions, 65 yards and a touchdown. However, that effort came against an underwhelming Raiders defense. This week, Sutton will battle a motivated Los Angeles Chargers team and talented defensive backs such as Desmond King II and Derwin James.

L.A. has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

The Chargers will battle because a win and a Chiefs loss gets them the AFC's No. 1 seed. If you watched the Broncos last week, you know they've lost the will to fight.

This is shaping up to be a one-sided game in which the Broncos accomplish little. Sutton may grab a few garbage-time catches, but he isn't worth relying on.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 4 receptions, 48 yards receiving

Sit For: Josh Reynolds, Dede Westbrook

WR Robert Foster vs. Miami Dolphins

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Robert Foster has emerged as a viable fantasy option because of his big-play ability and chemistry with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. However, he can be risky, because when he doesn't hit the big play, he's average.

Against the New England Patriots last week, for example, he caught just four passes for 52 yards.

Foster will have one of his good outings in Week 17, though. The Bills are at home and playing the Miami Dolphins in a meaningless game. There is a ton of potential for broken and fluky plays in this one. That should result in a long one for Foster.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 4 receptions, 105 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: John Ross, Nelson Agholor

WR Allen Robinson at Minnesota Vikings

Kena Krutsinger/Getty Images

Chicago Bears wideout Allen Robinson has been a hit-and-miss player for most of the season. While he isn't a complete afterthought, he usually hovers around the eight- to 10-point range in fantasy because he's only found the end zone four times. Two of those touchdowns came in his only 100-yard outing of 2018.

Robinson could have a limited role in Week 17, too. He's dealing with a rib injury, and while the Bears still have a shot at the No. 2 seed, they need the Los Angeles Rams to lose to the San Francisco 49ers to get it.

If coach Matt Nagy checks out the scores at halftime and sees the Rams up by 24, he may rest injured players like Robinson and safety Eddie Jackson (ankle) in preparation for the Wild Card Round.

Either way, Robinson is likely to struggle against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 3 receptions, 42 yards receiving

Sit For: Sterling Shepard, Adam Humphries

TE Ian Thomas at New Orleans Saints

Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

Carolina Panthers tight end Ian Thomas has taken over the starting job and run with it. He's been a top target for the Panthers, and that will continue in Week 17, even though Carolina has shut down quarterback Cam Newton for the remainder of the season because of a sore throwing shoulder.

Playing with Taylor Heinicke under center, Thomas caught four passes for 48 yards and a touchdown last week. Of course, Heinicke is now on injured reserve, and the Panthers are expected to start Kyle Allen.

Despite a tough situation, Thomas is worth a start. Regardless of who is under center, he will remain a reliable target and a focal point of the offense against New Orleans.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 5 receptions, 51 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST at Washington Redskins

Rob Leiter/Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles defense hasn't been a reliable fantasy option in 2018, due in large part to injuries in the secondary. Philadelphia has allowed the most passing yards (282.7 per game) in the NFL and has given up an average of 23.2 points per game (16th). However, we like the Eagles in Week 17.

They've seemed to have more energy on both sides of the ball with Nick Foles under center the last couple of games. Philadelphia is also playing a Redskins team that's on its fourth quarterback.

Washington has scored exactly 16 points in each of its last three games. That's around what we'd expect a hungry Eagles defense to allow with the playoffs possibly on the line.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 17 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 INT

Start Over: New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers

*Fantasy matchup statistics and rankings via FantasyPros.