Fantasy Football Week 16: Confident Calls on Toughest Lineup Decisions

Week 16 is finally here! For most fantasy footballers, this means it's championship week. If you're fortunate enough to be in the title game, congratulations. All of your pre-draft prep, in-season research, waiver-wire manipulation and roster management has led to this point. Now it's time to cash in and take home that championship.

Of course, the championship isn't just going to fall into your lap. You have to win it, and that means setting the best possible lineup. You're going to utilize the must-start players who got you here, of course, and you're going to play the streamers with favorable matchups. If you have to round out your lineup with fringe starters facing tough matchups? Well, things get a little trickier.

We're here to help sort things out by examining some of the tougher matchups faced by second-tier fantasy options this week. We'll determine who to start and who to sit according to factors such as opponent, performance to date and player health.

Our choices are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring formats.

Sam Darnold vs. Green Bay Packers

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold is still an unpolished work in progress who makes too many bad decisions. He's also about to go head-to-head against Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers defense is a fair matchup, but it isn't an easy one.

The Packers have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.

I'm still not sold on Darnold as a franchise quarterback—and I don't think the Jets win this game—but he's a good fantasy option this week. New York doesn't have a strong running game now that Isaiah Crowell is on injured reserve, and it could well fall behind early against Rodgers and Co. That's going to place a lot of the game plan on Darnold's shoulders and legs in Week 16.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 280 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Start Over: Derek Carr, Eli Manning

Matthew Stafford vs. Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

The Jets are hoping that Darnold can develop into a franchise quarterback. The Detroit Lions have long had one in Matthew Stafford. Unfortunately, Stafford hasn't put up elite fantasy numbers like a franchise quarterback usually does.

An absence of quality weapons has hurt Stafford. His production has suffered since Golden Tate was traded and Marvin Jones was placed on injured reserve. Don't expect it to get better against the rival Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota has a strong defense that is capable of racking up sacks in bunches—it got Ryan Tannehill nine times last week.

"They have just multiple different ways to pressure the quarterback and to just kind of keep the heat on the offensive line from that standpoint," Lions coach Matt Patricia said, per Justin Rogers of the Detroit News.

Stafford is likely in for a long day, and that's not good for fantasy owners.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 210 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Sit For: Ryan Tannehill, Nick Mullens

Jaylen Samuels at New Orleans Saints

Don Wright/Associated Press

The New Orleans Saints are tied for the third-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season. That can be attributed to the fact early-season opponents were often forced to play catch-up, and because the defensive front is very, very good.

Jaylen Samuels is still a smart play because of his PPR potential. Equaling the 142 yards rushing he had last week isn't all that realistic, but matching the seven receptions he had the week before is. Owners shouldn't have to worry too much about the potential return of James Conner either.

"I can walk around fine; I'm not limping around, but when I'm out there on the field, cutting and stuff, it's just—you know, I'm not ready yet," Conner said, per Mark Kaboly of The Athletic.

Expect Samuels to start and to have a solid day.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 48 yards rushing, 6 receptions 62 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Jordan Howard, Dion Lewis

Peyton Barber at Dallas Cowboys

Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press

The Dallas Cowboys run defense is nearly as good as New Orleans', allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2018. While we like Samuels because of his receiving ability, the same cannot be said for Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Peyton Barber.

Barber has just 16 receptions this season.

While he has been a decent flex option in recent weeks, he's also been touchdown-dependent. Last week, for example, his 89 total yards, two receptions and a touchdown on the ground made for a good fantasy outing. The week prior, however, he had a less appealing 44 yards and one reception.

On the road in Dallas, Barber's production should be closer to his Week 14 stat line than Week 15's.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 44 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 11 yards receiving

Sit For: Jalen Richard, Theo Riddick

Jamaal Williams at New York Jets

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

As stated earlier, it seems likely the Packers will jump out to an early lead against the Jets. On the road, that means their game plan in the second half should be to milk the clock with the ground game. Now that Aaron Jones is on injured reserve, there should be plenty of opportunities for Jamaal Williams.

Last week against the vaunted Chicago Bears defense, Williams amassed 97 total yards, four receptions and a touchdown.

The Jets did a remarkable job stopping the run against the Houston Texans last week, allowing just 47 yards rushing and 2.8 yards per carry. This isn't going to be the easiest of matchups for Williams on the road, but the workload should make him worthy of the start.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 60 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 28 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Tevin Coleman, Gus Edwards

Adrian Peterson at Tennessee Titans

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Washington Redskins back Adrian Peterson was a pleasant surprise early in the season, but he's cooled off recently—that 90-yard TD run against the Philadelphia Eagles being the exception. Last Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars represented a good week for Peterson, and he finished with 71 total yards and two receptions.

That nine-point outing is about what you can expect from Peterson as a ceiling against the Tennessee Titans this week. Tennessee has been much more consistent against the run; the Titans are tied with the Saints for third-fewest fantasy points allowed to the position this season.

Peterson needs 77 yards rushing to hit the 1,000-yard mark this season, but he'll likely have to wait until Week 17 to get there.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 65 yards rushing, 1 reception, 12 yards receiving

Sit For: Josh Adams, Matt Breida

Jordy Nelson vs. Denver Broncos

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jordy Nelson was a major disappointment early in the season, outside of one magical afternoon in Miami. However, he's picked up steam in recent weeks and now appears a viable fantasy option.

Over his last three games, Nelson has caught 22 passes for 233 yards. While he hasn't found the end zone since Week 5, he's still averaging seven catches and 78 yards—roughly 14 fantasy points—over the last three weeks.

The Denver Broncos defense can be tough on opposing receivers—it allows the 17th-most fantasy points to the position—but it's also without star cornerback Chris Harris. Expect Nelson to once again have a strong outing.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 8 receptions, 88 yards receiving

Start Over: Chris Godwin, Golden Tate

Sterling Shepard at Indianapolis Colts

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

New York Giants receiver Sterling Shepard has garnered quite a bit of fantasy attention over the last two weeks. With Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, Shepard has been the Giants' de facto No. 1 receiver. The problem for fantasy owners is that he hasn't produced like a No. 1 receiver in Beckham's stead—trust me, I know.

Shepard did find the end zone in Week 14, but over the past two weeks, he has just four catches and 54 yards combined.

There's no reason to believe Shepard will suddenly blossom this week against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Shepard is a low-end, touchdown-dependent option, and that's not what you want in Week 16.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 3 receptions, 41 yards receiving

Sit For: Curtis Samuel, Antonio Callaway

Evan Engram at Indianapolis Colts

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

Shepard hasn't become Eli Manning's favorite target in Beckham's absence—tight end Evan Engram has, and it's raised his fantasy value considerably.

After disappointing early in the season. Engram has impressed over the last couple of weeks. In his last two games, he's caught 11 passes for 152 yards. He should be solid again against the Colts. While Indianapolis' defense is playing at a high level and is a terrible matchup for receivers, it's been a fair matchup for tight ends.

Indianapolis has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to the position this season.

Verdict: Start

Projection: 5 receptions, 84 yards receiving, 1 TD

Start Over: Cameron Brate, Trey Burton

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

The Steelers defense/special teams unit was a sound play last week against the New England Patriots. It allowed a mere 10 points, sacked Tom Brady one and picked him off. If the Steelers can be a decent play against one future Hall of Famer, it can do the same to another, right?

Well, not so fast. Let's not forget that Pittsburgh's domination of Brady and the Patriots offense came at home. The Steelers will be on the road against Drew Brees and Co., and that makes things quite a bit more difficult.

While the Patriots have struggled on the road this season, the Saints have been phenomenal at home, scoring an average of 38 points per game there. Oh, and if you're going to point to the fact the Saints offense hasn't looked quite the same over the last three weeks, well, those three weeks were spent on the road.

Verdict: Sit

Projection: 28 points allowed, 2 sacks

Sit For: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons

All fantasy matchup rankings via FantasyPros.