The Denver Broncos won eight in a row in the rivalry with the Oakland Raiders into 2015, but the Raiders are 3-3 straight up and 4-2 against the spread over the last six meetings, including a cover earlier this season.
Who's the better bet for the 119th meeting between Denver and Oakland on Monday night?
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.5-21.8 Raiders (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
The Broncos won three games in a row into December but now seek to stop a two-game losing skid after falling to Cleveland last week 17-16.
Denver led the Browns 13-10 into the fourth quarter, fell down 17-13, pulled to within one point with over four minutes to go and got the ball back. But a drive that reached mid-field fizzled with three incompletions and a sack.
The Broncos held a 22-21 edge in first downs and a 33/27 edge in time of possession. Unfortunately, Case Keenum threw one interception from the Cleveland 29-yard line and another that led to the Browns' game-winning score.
Prior to last week, Denver had outrushed six of its previous seven opponents, going 5-2 ATS on NFL betting sites in the process. At 6-8 overall the Broncos are now shooting to win their last two games to finish at .500 on the season.
Why the Raiders can cover the spread
The Raiders were 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS over their previous four games but lost at Cincinnati last week 30-16.
Oakland fell down to the Bengals 17-0 in the second quarter, pulled to within 23-16 with five minutes left in the game but gave up a long kickoff return, leading to Cincinnati's final score, and could get no closer.
The Raiders actually outgained the Bengals 297-294. But Oakland lost the turnover battle 2-1 and six incursions inside Cincinnati territory resulted in just one touchdown and three field goals.
The Raiders have actually outgained three of their last five opponents, going 3-2 ATS on the NFL odds along the way. At 3-11 overall, Oakland is playing to build some momentum to carry over into next season.
Smart betting pick
Denver won the first matchup between these teams this season 20-19 back in September, but the Raiders actually led that game 19-7 late in the third quarter and hung on for the cover as five-point dogs.
This game should be close, too, and in cases like this, it's always better to have a field goal in your pocket rather than give one away.
The smart money here takes Oakland.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in the Broncos' last four games versus the Raiders.
The Broncos are 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.
The total has gone under in the Broncos' last seven games.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.