Week 16 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Fatigue, injury, spoilers and rest are some of the factors creating difficult hurdles for would-be bettors when it comes to the NFL's Week 16 lines. 

Flirtations with all these factors started in Week 15 and likely spoiled the plans of some bettors—or made the upset-minded folks quite happy. Teams like Dallas, Seattle and New England went down, while eyebrow-raisers like San Francisco, Buffalo and Atlanta added to their respective win columns. 

This chaotic march to the end of the season flanking holiday celebrations should only get more dramatic as it progresses, though oddsmakers at the start of Week 16 don't seem too worried if a handful of larger lines are any sign. 

Either way, let's step back to take a look at where things stand early in the week before the lines shift. 

Week 16 NFL Odds

Washington at Tennessee (-10) | O/U 37

Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (-6)  | O/U 45

Atlanta at Carolina (-3.5)  | O/U n/a

Buffalo at New England (-13)  | O/U 45

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7)  | O/U 45.5

Green Bay at N.Y. Jets (-1)  | O/U 44

Houston at Philadelphia (E) | O/U 45

Jacksonville at Miami (-4.5)  | O/U 39.5

Minnesota (-5.5) at Detroit | O/U 43.5

N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (-9)  | O/U 47

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)  | O/U 46

Chicago (-4) at San Francisco | O/U 42.5

L.A. Rams (-13.5) at Arizona | O/U 47.5

Pittsburgh at New Orleans (-7)  | O/U n/a

Kansas City (-2.5) at Seattle | O/U 53

Denver (-2.5) at Oakland | O/U 44.5

Washington at Tennessee (-10)

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Washington Redskins were something of a surprise winner in Week 15, which is what happens when a team gets to the play the Jacksonville Jaguars these days—fourth starting quarterback this year under center or not. 

But the feel-good vibes should wilt away in the snow rather quickly. The Tennessee Titans are one of the NFL's hottest teams and ride a three-game streak into this Week 16 encounter. 

Whereas the Redskins just beat the Jaguars by three points, the Titans faced them in Week 14 and came out ahead in 30-9 fashion. 

For the most part, credit goes to the continued, if not delayed breakout from Derrick Henry: 

That isn't to say Henry is doing it on his own, but Marcus Mariota has been able to relax a bit, and it helps that his defense is permitting just 18.1 points per game. 

For the Titans, controlling the Redskins while playing at home shouldn't be too much of a problem. The majority of Washington's offense centers on 33-year-old Adrian Peterson, and the unit only made headway against Jacksonville because it had the unpredictability of Josh Johnson starting under center and repeatedly ripping off big runs. 

The Titans not only have this on film now and know it is coming, they have one of the hottest running backs in the league and best outright defenses—two key aspects to not only beating a .500 club like Washington but making a deep playoff run. 

Prediction: Titans 27, Redskins 17

Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (-6)

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

The Baltimore Ravens might be hot right now, but they aren't anywhere near as scorching as the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Nobody is, really.  

The Chargers were one of the NFL's better teams well before taking down the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 15, escaping with a one-point win over an elite team in one of the best home-field advantages the league offers. 

All the Chargers do is get a 69.4 completion percentage from Philip Rivers with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions and more than five yards per carry from the top two backs on the roster. They also have a top-10 scoring defense. 

They might get droves healthier for this one, too: 

That isn't to suggest the Ravens don't stand a chance outright. After all, they have won four of five after receiving a jolt from rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose threat as a runner has given opponents fits. 

Not only is Jackson's play helping the Ravens come within three points against the Chiefs on the road as the only loss during the five-game stretch, the defense only surrenders 18.1 points per game, tied for tops in the league with Tennessee. 

In a battle of strengths like this, a few details stick out. One, the Chargers have the better player under center, which can't be understated. And two, there is plenty of film on Jackson now, which throws things in favor of the home team.

Oddsmakers have this one at a touchdown spread for a reason, so confidence in Rivers to pull away late is understandable. 

Prediction: Chargers 28, Ravens 20

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

It isn't wrong for bettors to look at this encounter and think of the first AFC North meeting between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. 

There, the Bengals looked lost at home, going down 35-20 at the hands of their in-state rivals as Andy Dalton suffered a season-ending injury trying to recover a bad snap and Baker Mayfield did whatever he wanted on the way to four touchdown passes. 

For the Bengals, it was part of a five-game skid and stretch where they lost seven of eight, ruining the season and firing a defensive coordinator in the process.

As for the Browns, they have emerged as slim playoff hopefuls while winning four of five lately, including two in a row with notables over Carolina and on the road against Denver. 

While Mayfield is up to 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, the aggressive nature of new head coach Gregg Williams can't go uncited as part of the reason for the upswing. His comments after beating Denver say quite a bit, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). 

"We came up here to win a ballgame," Williams said. "I don't think anybody's worried about me not being aggressive, and we came up here to win it. Offensively, we were going to win it right there. If not, defensively we're going to come back and do it. Pretty similar going all-out blitz the last several plays. That's the aggressive nature of the team."

Seeing the Browns favored against anyone by seven points in December is a new sight for most, though here it makes plenty of sense.

The Bengals won last time out, but beating Oakland isn't exactly a feat and glosses over the team's gigantic weaknesses. Without Dalton, A.J. Green and a host of others, the Bengals aren't much of a threat against the Browns in the rematch, especially on the road. 

Prediction: Browns 35, Bengals 24

Odds via OddsShark