NFL Week 15 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

It's the biggest NFL regular-season game of the year for the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chargers have been chasing the Chiefs since losing their Week 1 matchup in Los Angeles, and they have their opportunity to go into Arrowhead Stadium Thursday night and tie the Chiefs for the lead in the AFC West.

Well, not quite. Even if Philip Rivers and the Chargers can pull off the upset, the Chiefs will still hold on to the lead with two weeks to go in the regular season because they have the better divisional record. However, a Kansas City loss could create some doubt for the Chiefs, and they must go to Seattle to play the tough and physical Seahawks in Week 16.

These are the two best teams in the AFC, based on their records, but that will be cold comfort for the second-place finishers, because that will leave them as a wild-card playoff team. That would almost certainly mean playing all of their playoff games on the road, and that's a difficult way to get to the Super Bowl.

Both teams have prolific offenses led by sensational quarterbacks. Rivers has had one of the best years of his stellar career, and that's because he has not had to do it all on his own. For the large majority of the season, he has received excellent production from running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.

That may not be the case in this game because Gordon (knee) is questionable and Ekeler (neck/concussion) is out. If the Chargers are going to win, they need huge games from Rivers and wideouts Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams.

The Chiefs have a sensational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has been a dominant figure since the start of the season. Mahomes has one of the strongest arms of any quarterbacks in the league, and he also has touch and accuracy. Mahomes has 4,300 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are two of the best at their position in the league, but Kansas City's running game is in a transition without Kareem Hunt (released). Spencer Ware is a solid backup, but he does not have the explosiveness or all-around talent that Hunt brought to the team.

The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites, per OddsShark, and it's difficult to see them losing at home unless the Los Angeles defense forces three or more turnovers. That won't happen as Kansas City wins and covers. 

NFL Week 15 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET

Thursday, December 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-3.5) (Over/Under: 53.5) (8:20 p.m., Fox) 

Saturday, December 15

Houston (-6) at New York Jets (Over/Under: 41.5) (4:30 p.m., NFL Network) 

Cleveland at Denver (-3) (Over/Under: 45.5) (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) 

Sunday, December 16

Oakland at Cincinnati (-2.5) (Over/Under: 46) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Miami at Minnesota (-7) (Over/Under: 44.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Tennessee at New York Giants (-2.5) (Over/Under: 43.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Washington at Jacksonville (-7) (Over/Under: 36) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Arizona at Atlanta (-9) Over/Under: 44) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Detroit at Buffalo (-2.5) (Over/Under: 39) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Green Bay at Chicago (-6) (Over/Under: 45.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Dallas at Indianapolis (-3) (Over/Under: 47) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Tampa Bay at Baltimore (-7.5) (Over/Under: 46.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco (Over/Under: 44) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

New England (-2) at Pittsburgh (Over/Under: 52) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) (Over/Under: 52.5) (8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Monday, December 17

New Orleans (-6) at Carolina (Over/Under: 52) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Odds obtained from OddsShark. Picks against the spread in bold. 

Ben Margot/Associated Press

New England at Pittsburgh

Are the Patriots still in a state of shock after losing their Week 14 to the Miami Dolphins on the final play of the game due to some poor defense and even more questionable strategy?

Can the Steelers get out of their funk during the final weeks of the season? They have lost three games in a row, with games against the Patriots and New Orleans Saints coming up.

Both teams have issues that must be addressed. The Patriots have played poorly on the road all season, and that's fairly unusual for a Bill Belichick-coached team. Belichick is under the gun, because he had Rob Gronkowski on the field during Miami's final play, and he looked helpless as the last line of defense as Miami's Kenyan Drake ran into the end zone.

Belichick has not addressed the situation other than saying that he had to do a better job. Mike Tomlin also must find a way to get his team to finish. The Steelers failed in that area against the Chargers and Oakland Raiders the last two weeks. 

Tom Brady has to figure out a way to get rid of the ball sooner and more decisively, and that's an area he has had problems with this year. Ben Roethlisberger needs to be more consistent as well, but he may not have running back James Conner (ankle) in the backfield. Conner has not been ruled out, but he did not practice Wednesday.

The Steelers have not been awful, but they have not been doing the little things that lead to wins. That will not be the case in this game, as the Steelers will come out blazing with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The Steelers will win the game as two-point underdogs.

Prop bet

We go back to the Chargers-Chiefs game for our prop bet.

Oddschecker offers a wager on the first touchdown scorer of the key Thursday night game. Travis Kelce is listed at 6-1 for the Chiefs and Melvin Gordon is the favorite at 5-1.

Since we don't know how effective or healthy Gordon will play if he can play, we will avoid him. The same thing holds for Kelce because we want a bigger payoff than 5-1.

Our greed could lead to punishment, but the play we are interested in is wideout Mike Williams. Keenan Allen is the Chargers' best receiver and Rivers' best target, but Williams is an excellent secondary receiver. He has caught 30 passes for 516 yards and seven touchdowns, and we love the odds of 16-1.

A $100 wager on Mike Williams (as opposed to teammate Tyrell Williams) will pay a successful bettor $1,600.