NFL Playoff Picture Week 15: AFC, NFC 2018 Postseason Scenarios and Predictions

The NFL playoff picture entering Week 15 of the 2018 season both has more clarity and still feels clear as mud.

Week 14 saw a few more teams either join the playoff party or be officially eliminated from it. That said, a handful of upsets—Miami over New England, Oakland over Pittsburgh, San Francisco over Denver—added more twists and turns to the three-week road ahead.

What we know for sure is that the New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams have secured their postseason spots. We also know they won't be joined there by the San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets.

Everything else is undecided, making this the perfect time to check in on the standings, playoff scenarios and wild-card predictions ahead of Week 15.

AFC

Division Leaders

1. x-Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)

2. New England Patriots (9-4)

3. Houston Texans (9-4)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1)

x-clinched playoff berth

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-3)

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

8. Miami Dolphins (7-6)

9. Tennessee Titans (7-6)

10. Denver Broncos (6-7)

11. Cleveland Browns (5-7-1)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)

Officially Eliminated

13. Buffalo Bills (4-9)

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

15. New York Jets (4-9)

16. Oakland Raiders (3-10)

Playoff Scenarios

The Thursday night showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers holds major playoff implications. If Kansas City wins, it clinches at least the AFC West and a first-round bye—plus the AFC's top seed if it happens in conjunction with a Patriots loss or tie against the Steelers. Conversely, a Chargers victory would give them at least the fifth seed in the AFC.

A Patriots victory and Dolphins loss to the Vikings would give New England another AFC East title—as would a tie coupled with a Miami loss. The Texans, meanwhile, can lock up the AFC South by winning over the Jets and having both the Colts lose or tie against the Cowboys and the Titans lose or tie against the Giants. If Houston ties, Indy loses and Tennessee loses, the Texans could also capture their division.

Wild-Card Outlook

Four of the AFC's six spots are either officially locked in place or approaching the point at which they will be, so let's focus on the final two.

The Steelers control their own destiny in the AFC North, but the Ravens, Colts, Dolphins and Titans are all breathing down their neck. And maybe the Broncos can still play their way back into this race if they take better advantage of a favorable schedule than they did Sunday.

The folks over at FiveThirtyEight still see Pittsburgh getting in, but its 62 percent playoff probability is far from a lock. Baltimore is up next at 55 percent, with Tennessee (35), Indianapolis (27) and Miami (20) effectively rounding out the field.

The Steelers likely need to steal a win to get in, either handling the Patriots at home or solving the Saints on the road. The Ravens sandwich home contests against the Buccaneers and Browns around a tricky road tilt with the Chargers. The Titans have winnable games at the Giants and home against the Redskins before closing with a potentially critical home contest against the Colts.

Our crystal ball has the Ravens capturing the AFC North and getting that playoff bid, with the other going to the Titans, who become the only club of these five to sweep its remaining schedule.

NFC

Division Leaders

1. z-New Orleans Saints (11-2)

2. z-Los Angeles Rams (11-2)

3. Chicago Bears (9-4)

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

z-clinched division title

Wild-Card Race

5. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)

7. Carolina Panthers (6-7)

8. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

9. Washington Redskins (6-7)

10. Green Bay Packers (5-7-1)

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8)

12. New York Giants (5-8)

13. Detroit Lions (5-8)

14. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

Officially Eliminated

15. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

16. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)

Playoff Scenarios

The Saints (at Panthers) and Rams (vs. Eagles) could both clinch first-round byes if they win their respective games and the Bears lose to or tie with the Packers. The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a road win over the Colts. The Eagles (at Rams) and Redskins (at Jaguars) both losing would also get the job done for Dallas.

The Bears can secure their playoff spot with either a win over the Packers or a Redskins loss to the Jaguars.

Wild-Card Outlook

While the Saints and Rams are the only teams officially in the NFC playoffs, the Bears, Cowboys and Seahawks feel like unofficial certainties.

So, we're left with five teams scrambling for the final berth. Now, that situation might sound impossible to predict, but a temperature gauge of that team tells a different tale.

The Panthers, losers of five straight, are so cold you'd think they were auditioning to become the official mascot of winter. The Redskins, losers of four in a row, are playing as poorly as you'd expect of a team giving 2018 NFL snaps to Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson. The Packers, losers of five of their last seven, hit a skid so strong it cost former coach Mike McCarthy his job.

Unless one of those clubs miraculously rises from the ashes, the sixth spot belongs to either the Vikings or Eagles. And even this head-to-head battle feels one-sided.

The Vikings are our pick here, due in no small part to the half-game cushion supplied by their Week 2 tie with the Packers. But Minnesota also enjoys better statistical rankings in scoring on offense (18th to 21st) and defense (11th to 13th). Plus, the Eagles draw the Rams and Texans in the next two weeks, while the Vikings get the Dolphins and Lions.