Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 5, 2018

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 18:  Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons pulls in this reception against the Dallas Cowboys at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 18, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Both the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers were expected to at least compete for playoff spots this season, but instead, they've both disappointed and lost money—Atlanta is 3-9 against the spread this season, while Green Bay is 4-7-1.

Is Sunday afternoon's matchup between these teams at Lambeau Field even worth a bet?

     

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.6-17.0 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

     

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are tough clients to flack for at the moment, with four straight losses both SU and ATS, including a 26-16 decision at home last week against Baltimore.

Atlanta actually drew first blood with an early field goal and led the Ravens 10-7 in the second quarter. But the Falcons then gave up the next 19 points of the game and could not recover.

Atlanta got beat along most of the stat sheet against a rejuvenated Baltimore team with its exciting young quarterback and a tough defense.

The Falcons have actually outgained three of their last five opponents, including New Orleans and Dallas. Unfortunately, they've also lost the turnover battle over that span 9-4.

At 4-8 overall, Atlanta would just like to win its last four games to finish at .500 on the season.

     

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers aren't much better than the Falcons as of late, with five losses in their last six games, including an embarrassing 20-17 defeat last week at home to anemic Arizona.

Green Bay drew first blood with a second-quarter Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass, led 10-7 at the half, fell down 17-10 but tied the score on an Aaron Jones touchdown with five minutes to go. The Packers then gave up a Cardinals field goal and missed one of their own at the buzzer.

Shortly thereafter, Green Bay fired head coach Mike McCarthy.

The Packers held a 22-18 edge in first downs, outgained Arizona 325-315 and won time of possession by a 32/28 split. But they struggled mightily on third downs on both sides of the ball, converting just three-of-14 situations offensively and allowing a conversion on a 3rd-and-23 during the Cardinals' game-winning drive.

Even with the loss, Green Bay is 4-1-1 SU at home this season. At 4-7-1 overall, the Packers would just like to create some momentum to carry over into next season.

      

Smart betting pick

Green Bay just canned its head coach, and Atlanta might do the same in the near future. And neither of these teams is deserving of a recommendation to bet at the moment. The smartest money when it comes to this game might pass.

      

NFL betting trends

The Packers are 60-17-2 SU in their last 79 games at home.

The Packers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home in December.

The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

     

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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